AccuScore offers up Super Bowl props picks

Rohit Ghosh for AccuScore

AccuScore offers up Super Bowl props picks image

After simulating the Super Bowl 10,000 times, AccuScore recommends the following prop bets for Sunday’s game between the Patriots and Seahawks:

Alternative point spread prop
Patriots +10.5 -450
Seahawks -10.5 +375
Recommendation: AccuScore gives Seattle about a 27 percent chance of covering a -10.5 spread, a forecast that translates to money-line odds of +270.  A small wager on Seattle covering -10.5 is appealing, given the +375 line.

Player prop bets

Tom Brady: OVER 260.5 passing yards
Analysis: AccuScore projects Brady to throw for 295 yards.  Even at -130 odds, OVER 260.5 yards for Brady is worth a play.

LeGarrette Blount: UNDER 62.5 rushing yards
Analysis: Blount is projected to carry the ball about 13 times, but he has just a 47 to 48 percent chance of going over 60 yards, making the UNDER a sensible pick.

Russell Wilson: UNDER 42.5 rushing yards
Analysis: AccuScore’s computer projects Wilson to rush just six times for 34 yards this Sunday. Considering the -105 vig on the UNDER and that there is a noticeable difference between the total and AccuScore’s projection, there is quite a bit of value on the UNDER here.

Doug Baldwin: OVER 54.5 receiving yards
Analysis: AccuScore projects Baldwin to finish with about 75 yards on five receptions. He has about a 64 percent chance of going OVER 55 receiving yards.

1st to pass TD: Russell Wilson +135
Analysis: Both Brady and Russell Wilson average similar TD numbers after AccuScore’s 10,000 simulations. Since the data projects similar numbers, picking who throws the first TD is basically a 50-50 bet. At +135, there’s better value in taking Wilson.

Visit AccuScore.com for more picks

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Rohit Ghosh for AccuScore