After simulating the Super Bowl 10,000 times, AccuScore recommends the following prop bets for Sunday’s game between the Patriots and Seahawks:
Alternative point spread prop
Patriots +10.5 -450
Seahawks -10.5 +375
Recommendation: AccuScore gives Seattle about a 27 percent chance of covering a -10.5 spread, a forecast that translates to money-line odds of +270. A small wager on Seattle covering -10.5 is appealing, given the +375 line.
Player prop bets
Tom Brady: OVER 260.5 passing yards
Analysis: AccuScore projects Brady to throw for 295 yards. Even at -130 odds, OVER 260.5 yards for Brady is worth a play.
LeGarrette Blount: UNDER 62.5 rushing yards
Analysis: Blount is projected to carry the ball about 13 times, but he has just a 47 to 48 percent chance of going over 60 yards, making the UNDER a sensible pick.
Russell Wilson: UNDER 42.5 rushing yards
Analysis: AccuScore’s computer projects Wilson to rush just six times for 34 yards this Sunday. Considering the -105 vig on the UNDER and that there is a noticeable difference between the total and AccuScore’s projection, there is quite a bit of value on the UNDER here.
Doug Baldwin: OVER 54.5 receiving yards
Analysis: AccuScore projects Baldwin to finish with about 75 yards on five receptions. He has about a 64 percent chance of going OVER 55 receiving yards.
1st to pass TD: Russell Wilson +135
Analysis: Both Brady and Russell Wilson average similar TD numbers after AccuScore’s 10,000 simulations. Since the data projects similar numbers, picking who throws the first TD is basically a 50-50 bet. At +135, there’s better value in taking Wilson.
Visit AccuScore.com for more picks
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