Super Bowl 53 predictions: How the Rams can beat the odds, Patriots

Tadd Haislop

Super Bowl 53 predictions: How the Rams can beat the odds, Patriots image

Before the season, the Rams and Patriots were trendy picks to reach Super Bowl 53 for different reasons. New England was the established, reloading AFC power coming off a pair of Super Bowl appearances. Los Angeles was the up-and-coming NFC bully armed with a freshly padded roster.

AFC power, meet NFC bully.

SUPER BOWL 53: Odds, picks for Rams-Patriots

In some ways, Super Bowl 53 in Atlanta features contrast. In others, the Rams and Patriots are more similar than some might think. LA's Sean McVay and New England's Bill Belichick are the youngest and longest-tenured coaches in the NFL, respectively, yet both are widely revered. A solid chunk of the Rams' key starters were acquired in 2018 via trades or free agency vs. just a few for the Patriots, yet the number of players on the LA roster who were drafted by the Rams is 28; that number for the Patriots is 29.

Of course, some of those recent acquisitions — and one in particular — are why the Rams have an edge over the Patriots in Super Bowl 53.

Super Bowl 53 prediction

In July, SN broke down the new-look Rams and noted how general manager Les Snead’s clear mission was to improve the defense to compliment an already-potent offense. The notable new names on that side of the ball were Ndamukong Suh, Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib.

Later, in August, we saw that defense at work in a joint training camp practice against the Ravens. SN's David Steele noted, “That defense might be what puts the Rams into the Super Bowl.” The observation was made before defensive lineman Aaron Donald returned from his holdout. Donald ended up being voted Sporting News Defensive Player of the Year for 2018.

Long story short: This game against the Patriots is why the Rams made unusually aggressive moves to round out their defense and, in turn, the team.

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Some might say LA's defense underachieved in the regular season, when it allowed an average of 24 points per game, 20th in the NFL. Yet that defense held the No. 1-seeded Saints to 290 total yards and 23 points, including overtime, in the NFC championship game. The turnover it forced in OT all but sent LA to the Super Bowl.

In contrast, a Patriots defense that ranked seventh in the NFL with an average of 20.3 points allowed per game in the regular season has slipped in the postseason against the Chargers and Chiefs. The average of 29.5 points New England allowed in those two games is the most of all playoff teams.

However, Patriots running back Sony Michel has been by far the league's most productive rusher in the postseason. That's why Suh is such a key player in the Super Bowl.

New England will see a Los Angeles run defense that ranked 23rd in the NFL (122.3 rushing yards allowed per game) and likely come up with yet another run-heavy game plan, similar to the approaches it took against the Chargers and Chiefs. But the Patriots have not faced a defensive-line duo like Suh and Donald.

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If the Rams can stop the run early in the game and — we know, this sounds weird — force Tom Brady to throw on early downs, they’ll significantly increase their chances to win. Because there are two tried-and-true formulas to beating Brady and New England in such a big game, and Los Angeles is capable of both.

The first is a legitimate (preferably inside) pass rush generated by four or fewer defenders. For most teams, this means having a couple ends, a strong rushing tackle and, depending on the scheme, maybe an outside linebacker getting in Brady's face.

For the Rams, Donald is capable of accomplishing this feat by himself. The likes of Suh, Michael Brockers and Dante Fowler are just gravy.

The other way to beat the Patriots this deep in a season is to hit them with something they've never seen; use their best quality (their knack for always being prepared thanks to keen film study) against them. The Eagles did this to perfection last year. The Seahawks four years ago … did not.

The Rams' offense is not overly complicated — a little play-action here, a little screen pass there, a little power running sprinkled in — yet it's tough to defend. A big reason is the versatility of all its parts.

In New Orleans, LA used creative play designs to get relatively unexpected ball-carriers in space. A good example was a reverse to wide receiver Josh Reynolds late in the third quarter; he was knocked out of bounds at the Saints’ 1-yard line, setting up a key touchdown that cut the New Orleans lead to three.

New England will have seen such plays on tape. It's on McVay and his staff to come up with wrinkles to the designs they've utilized dating back to the coach's first game in LA two years ago. Belichick will be looking back that far.

Of course, when the Eagles succeeded in this regard against the Patriots, they did it on the strength of unpredictably spectacular execution from quarterback Nick Foles. Such a performance from Jared Goff would not be so surprising, but it's equally vital.

Any doubts about Goff's ability to deliver when called upon as a playmaker should have been extinguished in the NFC title game. We’re not saying he's Brady, and he likely never will be Brady, but he doesn't need to be Brady.

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Predicting a Rams victory in Super Bowl 53 is a dangerous game. The dynastic savvy of Brady on the field and Belichick on the sideline becomes exponentially more lethal to opponents when the Patriots are chasing a carrot as juicy as a sixth championship.

Oh well.

The Rams have the best player on the field in Donald, and thanks to their timely roster-stuffing, they have the better overall team.

Super Bowl 53 prediction: Rams 31, Patriots 27

Tadd Haislop

Tadd Haislop is the Associate NFL Editor at SportingNews.com.