We will see a new champion crowned in Miami on Sunday night when the Chiefs and 49ers square off in Super Bowl 54. San Francisco hasn’t won a Super Bowl since hammering the San Diego Chargers 49-26 in Super Bowl 29, while Kansas City hasn’t even played on this stage since the Chiefs beat the Minnesota Vikings 23-7 in Super Bowl 4.
The oddsmakers have made this game an effective toss-up with Kansas City favored by a point, and the number has yet to move in a significant way since the Super Bowl betting odds were first released.
Here's a complete guide to betting on Super Bowl 54, including updated odds, prop bets, expert tips and more for 49ers vs. Chiefs.
MORE: Get the latest Super Bowl 54 odds & betting trends at Sports Insider
Super Bowl 2020 odds
- Kansas City Chiefs -1 vs. San Francisco 49ers, O/U 54
Although the spread has only slightly fluctuated, there has been more action on the Chiefs than the 49ers. Bettors have been enamored with Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City’s explosive offense, so the Chiefs have been the choice on over 60 percent of bets placed so far at online sportsbooks.
The over is an even more popular pick, and we have seen significant movement on the total in this game. This game opened with a total of 51.5 points, and the vast majority of the bets and the money have come in on the over. That led to this total rising all the way to 54.5 points before money started coming in on the under in the last couple days.
SUPER BOWL 54 PREDICTIONS:
Straight up | Against the spread | SN staff picks
Chiefs vs. 49ers betting trends
San Francisco is red hot coming into this game. The 49ers were the best team in the NFC during the regular season and into the playoffs, and they had no trouble covering against both Minnesota and Green Bay in their two previous playoff games. They are now 6-1 ATS against teams with a winning record this season, and San Francisco is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine games following those comfortable wins.
The Chiefs have been even more impressive, overcoming double-digit deficits against Houston and Tennessee to make it to the Super Bowl. Kansas City is 7-0-1 ATS in its last eight games, and the Chiefs are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite. They are 5-0 ATS in their last five games against teams with winning records.
Although the 49ers had the best defense in the NFL this season, the over might be the right play going by recent trends. The over is 4-1-1 in San Francisco’s last six games, and the over has cashed in seven of San Francisco’s last nine games on grass. The over is 7-2 in Kansas City’s last nine tilts against teams with a winning record as well.
MORE: Can this year's Madden Super Bowl prediction buck a recent trend?
Super Bowl 54 prop bets
Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in the NFL today, and he has the highest over/under for passing yards in a Super Bowl that we have seen in years. Mahomes’ total has been set at 305.5 passing yards, and the early money has come in on the over. However, San Francisco finished the year as the best pass defense in the NFL, and the 49ers only allowed four quarterbacks to throw for more than 300 yards on this defense.
Two of those quarterbacks only reached that total in garbage time, but Drew Brees and Jared Goff both had success against this secondary.
Despite throwing only eight passes in the NFC Championship Game, Jimmy Garoppolo’s total for passing yards was set at 239.5. San Francisco has largely eschewed the pass in favor of the run in the postseason, as Jimmy G has thrown for just 208 yards in the 49ers’ two playoff games. He might not be asked to throw much this time either as Kansas City’s run defense allowed 4.8 YPC during the regular season, but the Chiefs did stand tall against Derrick Henry and the Titans in the AFC Championship Game.
Raheem Mostert is expected to have a decent afternoon on the ground after setting a record in the NFC Championship Game by running for 220 yards and four touchdowns. His rushing total has been set at 75.5 rushing yards, as the 49ers probably won’t use running back by committee with Tevin Coleman injuring his shoulder against the Packers.
Meanwhile, Damien Williams’ total has been set at 51.5 rushing yards even though Patrick Mahomes has out-rushed him in each of Kansas City’s two playoff games. Williams ran for 47 yards against Houston and 45 yards against Tennessee, so this number raises an eyebrow given the strength of San Francisco’s front seven.