The Steelers (5-4) and Browns (3-6) have plenty on the line during the AFC North rivals' latest meeting on "Thursday Night Football" (8:20 p.m. ET, Fox, Amazon Prime Video, NFL Network). Pittsburgh is in current wild-card position for the AFC playoffs and only two games behind Baltimore for first place. Cleveland, two more games out, is playing only the second of six division games, already having won at Baltimore.
The AFC is weak enough as a whole to think either team, coming off big home wins in Week 10, can use this Week 11 matchup as a springboard to finish the second half strong. Mason Rudolph hasn't played great for the Steelers, but the defense is making enough big plays to win games. Baker Mayfield, his former Big 12 rival and fellow second-year QB, is starting to warm up a little after a brutal sophomore slump.
Here's everything to know about betting on Steelers vs. Browns in Week 11, including updated odds, trends and our prediction for "Thursday Night Football."
MORE: Get the latest NFL odds & betting advice at Sportsbook Review
Betting odds for 'Thursday Night Football'
- Spread: Browns by 3
- Point total: 40.5
- Odds: Steelers -115, Browns +105
The Browns are favored for the second consecutive game at home despite playing a team with a superior record. It wasn't easy and it was ugly, but they came through in the Lake Erie Bowl against the Bills last week to earn this status against the Steelers. The Steelers, who escaped in two consecutive nail-biters in Heinz Field, have that bit of flukiness reflected here as mild underdogs because of not having home field.
Steelers vs. Browns all-time series
The Steelers are now up 75-58-1 in the rivalry. Under coach Mike Tomlin, that record is 20-3-1. The Browns did tie in the season opener last season, but the winless streak is now at eight games in the series. The Browns last got wins in '12 and '14, but those were surrounded by 14 losses. However you slice it, Pittsburgh has dominated Cleveland of late at home or or away, since the reboot of the latter franchise.
STABILITY VS INCOMPETENCE
Why the Steelers are the Steelers and the Browns are the Browns
Three trends to know
— 61 percent of spread bettors like the Steelers. 68 percent of moneyline bettors like the Steelers. But the line went up a half-point in favor of the Browns.
— The Steelers match their 5-4 record by going 5-3 against the spread this season with one push. They come in having won four consecutive games. twice as underdogs.
— The Browns got a win and a push against the Bills by three points after both losing and failing to cover the spread in their previous four games.
Three things to watch
Conner returns
The Steelers will get back feature back James Conner after missing two games with a shoulder injury. Their running and short passing games have missed him as Jaylen Samuels and Trey Edmunds did limited damage in his place. The Browns have the No. 27 run defense in the NFL, so the Steelers won't waste time in feeding their workhorse.
Baker heating up
Mayfield has quietly been very good the past two weeks after his well-documented struggles. His best performance of the season came in ripping the Ravens in AFC North play. He made only one start against the Steelers last season, a 33-18 road loss in which he didn't play well as a rookie. He'll be pumped to make amends in prime time.
That touch of Minkah
Defensive back Minkah Fitzpatrick has balled out in seven games with the Steelers since being traded from the Dolphins. Fitzpatrick has 8 passes defended, 5 interceptions, a forced fumble and an INT return TD. He has had massive game-changing plays over the past three weeks. Mayfield has to be careful when throwing into the middle of the field or risk another sloppy, costly turnover game.
Stat that matters
Browns wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr., in his first 9 games with his new team, has 44 catches for 632 yards and a TD. It's been disappointing for sure, but in 21 night games over his career, he's racked up 126 catches for 1,812 yards and 14 TDs. His biggest game of the season came on Monday night against the Jets, with 6 catches for 161 yards and a TD. He can remember it's prime time to play up this elite level.
Steelers vs. Browns prediction
The Steelers survived the Colts and Rams, and the Browns, after blowing the Broncos game, looked more like they should have against the Bills. Their offense and defense come together with their best performance of the year for Freddie Kitchens, considering how much of nemesis the Steelers have been. Beckham and Jarvis Landry will end up helping Mayfield a lot more than JuJu Smith-Schuster and others help Rudolph in a matchup of tough pass defenses. Nick Chubb also will run better than Conner with a good second half.
Browns 24, Steelers 20
