The Texans find themselves at a crossroads with star wide receiver Nico Collins. Should they lock him up to a lucrative contract extension before the upcoming season, or wait and see if he can replicate his breakout performance in 2023?
This debate has become a hot topic among fans and analysts alike, with compelling arguments to be made on both sides.
Proponents of an immediate extension highlight Collins' impressive production this past season, his age and position in his prime as well as the potential for a discount compared to waiting for free agency. There are concerns, though, about Collins' underwhelming performance in his first two seasons and his recent string of injuries.
Let's delve deeper into the arguments for and against extending Collins' contract before the season kicks off, ultimately reaching a verdict on the most strategic course of action for the Texans.
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Should the Texans extend WR Nico Collins in 2024?
Texans fans and the league at large are debating whether to Collins' contract before the 2024 season or wait until later. Both sides of the argument have merit.
Here are the pros and cons to an extension for Collins in 2024:
Why Texans should sign Collins now
Proven production
In his breakout third year, Collins solidified himself as a dependable target for quarterback C.J. Stroud under offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik and head coach DeMeco Ryans. The former Michigan star amassed 80 receptions for 1,297 yards and eight touchdowns in 15 games. His receiving yards ranked eighth in the NFL, as did his touchdown catches. He also finished seventh overall in receiving yards per game with an average of 86.5.
He's in his early prime
At 25 years old, Collins is just entering his prime. Wide receiver performance often declines rapidly as players age due to the position's reliance on speed and agility, both of which tend to diminish with time. Locking him up now could be a savvy move.
Potential discount
Extending Collins before the season carries an element of risk. Recent deals for Lions wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown and Eagles receiver DeVonta Smith have already driven the price up, and Collins could ask for even more if he performs well in 2014. But it could also secure him at a lower cost compared to waiting until after the season. If he replicates or surpasses his 2023 performance, his price tag will undoubtedly rise in free agency. Conversely, a subpar season might make you hesitant to re-sign him, even at a reduced rate.
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Why Texans shouldn't sign Collins now
Inconsistent career
Collins' first two seasons were relatively underwhelming. He recorded 33 receptions for 446 yards and one touchdown in his rookie year, followed by 37 receptions for 481 yards and two touchdowns in his sophomore season. It wasn't until his third year under a new coaching staff, scheme, and quarterback that he truly emerged.
Injury history
Durability is a concern for Collins. He missed three games in 2021 due to a shoulder injury, followed by seven games in 2022 with a hip sprain/groin pull and a foot injury. In 2023, he missed two games with a calf or Achilles injury.
Verdict: Texans should extend Collins
Extending Collins' contract sooner rather than later makes the most sense. His early struggles can be attributed to development, a lack of elite quarterback play (Davis Mills vs. CJ Stroud), and playing in two different offensive schemes under coordinators who may not be as highly regarded as Slowik (Tim Kelly and Pep Hamilton).
Ultimately, the decision hinges on the current coaching staff's evaluation of his talent. It's hard to imagine Slowik not wanting to extend Collins after witnessing his production in just one year within his scheme, especially considering the scheme's unique nature.
Not extending him would be a gamble and potentially force the Texans to find and develop a new starting X receiver. The Athletic's Robert Mays and Nate Tice compared this to another situation — 49ers star wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk. He's entering a contract year after blossoming in the same Kyle Shanahan-inspired scheme under Kyle Shanahan. Since Slowik hails from the San Francisco 49ers and implements a similar system, he knows that the X receiver role is critical to the Texans' offensive success.
The injury concerns are also somewhat exaggerated. The decision to sit him for Achilles-related issues in 2023 seemed more like a cautious approach by the coaching staff, prioritizing his long-term health over short-term gains. This is a commendable strategy that prioritizes player well-being.
