The Sea Dragons know what's at stake on Sunday. After watching the Battlehawks defeat the Guardians, they also know exactly what they need to make the XFL playoffs.
Seattle and St. Louis came into the final week of the regular season tied at 6-3 as they vied for second in the North Division. The team that prevails this weekend will face the Defenders in the playoff semifinals.
St. Louis did its job Saturday, beating the Guardians 53-28. The 53 points were the most by any team this season, but the 28 points allowed were detrimental to the Battlehawks in the race for a postseason berth.
Seattle's road to the playoffs begins with their game against the Vipers on Sunday. Lose, and there will be no need for tiebreakers; St. Louis will face D.C.. Win, and the XFL tiebreaker system goes into effect.
MORE: XFL tiebreakers rules, explained
The race between Seattle and St. Loius is so close, it likely will come down to the fourth or fifth tiebreaker should Seattle win. The teams split the season series, they would have the same win/loss percentage in division games, and they would have the same strength of victory in all games.
So, what, exactly, is Seattle's path to the playoffs? The Sporting News looks at what needs to happen for the Sea Dragons to keep playing.
Sea Dragons playoff picture
Seattle will enter play against the Vipers with a 6-3 record, good for third place in the North Division. It has scored 215 points and allowed 168 through nine games.
Any playoff qualifying scenario involving Seattle is based on the assumption that it beats Vegas. Here's what the Sea Dragons need to do to pass St. Louis in each of three tiebreakers.
Fourth tiebreaker
- Best combined ranking among division teams in points scored and points allowed in all games
Seattle and St. Louis are tied in this tiebreaker heading into Sunday's game. The Sea Dragons' 215 points scored are the third-most among teams in the division and the 168 points allowed are the fewest among teams in the division. That gives Seattle a combined score of four (three for points-scored rank, one for points-allowed rank).
St. Louis has scored the second-most points at 249 and allowed the second-fewest at 202, which gives it a combined score of four (two for points scored and two for points allowed).
MORE: XFL playoff scenarios
St. Louis has scored 34 more points than Seattle and allowed 34 more points. If Seattle scores at least 34 points against the Vipers, it would lower its combined score to three and pass St. Louis. But that also comes with the caveat that Sea Dragons cannot allow 34 or more points. If Seattle scores at least 34 and allows at least 34, it will be time for the fifth tiebreaker.
Fifth tiebreaker
- Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games
Because the two teams would be tied in combined ranking in the division, they would go to the fifth tiebreaker, which looks at ranking among all eight XFL teams. Seattle has a combined rank of five to St. Louis' seven heading into Sunday's games.
There is one game left to be played before the Sea Dragons face the Vipers, and it could have an impact on this tiebreaker: Roughnecks vs. Renegades at 3 p.m. ET Sunday. The Roughnecks have scored 222 points to the Sea Dragons' 215, and the teams' points allowed are very close (Houston, 173; Arlington, 169; Seattle, 168).
MORE: XFL playoff schedule
The Roughnecks could pass the Battlehawks in points scored as they trail by only 27 (249-222), but the Renegades will not pass them since they trail by 112 (249-137). Points allowed is where things look worse for the Battlehawks than the Sea Dragons. Houston would have to give up at least 30 points for St. Louis to move ahead of it in points allowed, and Arlington would have to allow at least 34 for St. Louis to jump it.
The Battlehawks' points-allowed ranking is therefore unlikely to go much lower by the end of the weekend, whereas Seattle, with the league's No. 1 scoring defense, is more likely to stay ahead of Houston and Arlington in that category.
But it's still possible for Seattle and St. Louis to finish Sunday tied in the fifth tiebreaker. If Houston and Arlington each finish with more points allowed than the Battlehawks, and Seattle scores fewer than 34 points in a win, then Seattle and St. Louis would be headed for the next tiebreaker.
Sixth tiebreaker
- Best net points in all games
This is the end of the line. There are two other tiebreakers after this one — net touchdowns in all games and a coin toss — but they will not be needed if it gets this far.
Heading into Sunday's game, the Sea Dragons are a net +47. The Battlehawks? Also +47.
That means that as long as Seattle wins, which would trigger the tiebreaker process, it will have added at least one extra net point to its figure.
