When the Vikings (10-6) travel to face the Saints (13-3) in New Orleans for Sunday afternoon's NFC wild-card playoff game (1:05 p.m. ET, Fox), the matchup will feel different than the "Minneapolis Miracle" meeting.
The Vikings will Kirk Cousins at quarterback instead of Case Keenum. They also didn't have Dalvin Cook as their dominant feature back. The Saints' defense also has been much improved as they've added key veterans and their young secondary has come of age.
One thing that hasn't changed: Drew Brees and Sean Payton are still leading the Saints into the postseason.
Here's everything to know about betting on Vikings vs. Saints in the NFL playoffs, including updated odds, trends and our prediction for the NFC wild-card game.
MORE: Get the latest NFL odds & betting trends at Sports Insider
Saints vs. Vikings odds for NFL playoff game
- Spread: Saints by 8
- Point total: 49.5
- Odds: Vikings -115, Saints -105
The Saints have been a little more than touchdown favorites at home since the initial lines. The Vikings rested players and lost to the Bears at home in Week 17, while the Saints played their principals and routed the Panthers on the road. Minnesota's momentum cooled a bit down the stretch, while New Orleans is rolling into the playoffs.
Saints vs. Vikings all-time series
The Vikings lead the series 22-12. The Saints won in Minnesota in October of '18, 30-20. Before then, the Saints lost at Minnesota in the divisional playoffs after the 2017 season, 29-24 in "Minneapolis Miracle" game. The teams haven't played in New Orleans in more than five years. The Saints took that matchup, 20-9 in September of '14.
Three trends to know
— The Saints went 11-5 against the spread during the regular season. The Vikings were only 8-8.
— The Vikings and Saints both saw 9 of their respective 16 games go over the point total.
— The Vikings are 2-4 against the spread in their past six games. The Saints are 5-2 against the spread in their past seven games.
Three things to watch
'Minneapolis Miracle' cure?
The Saints will have Stefon Diggs' game-winning playoff touchdown against them in the back of their minds, namely cornerback Marshon Lattimore and safety Marcus Williams. The Saints are still vulnerable on the back end, but less so with their pass rush and run defense creating one more predictable, one-dimensional downfield situations. The Saints will give up chunks through the air, but the key is avoiding any long connections between Cousins and either Diggs or Adam Thielen.
Cousins in relation to big games
Cousins will be under pressure to change the narrative on his inablity to win marquee matchups, despite having his best NFL season and being a big part of the Vikings' turnaround back to the playoffs. His pass protection has been better and the running and receiving of Cook has faciliated everything for him. He needs to shake off past playoff failures and be mindful of making good decisions consistently.
Cook vs. Kamara
The Saints and Vikings have good run defenses. so it may be tough sledding for Cook to power between the tackles and a tight squeeze for Kamara to burst into open field. The backs, however, can do plenty of damage as outlet and screen receivers. The back who makes the bigger impact from scrimmage is bound to be playing for the winning side. Cook is fully healthy from his shoulder injury. Kamara is fully healthy from his ankle injury. The teams won't hold back with the necessary touches.
Stat that matters
The Vikings gave up on average 14 catches on 21 targets for 170 yards to wide receivers this season. They really struggled giving up big plays outside and at times also have been burned in the slot. There's no reason to think they can slow down Saints' record-setting wide receiver Michael Thomas. In two meetings, Thomas has been contained to 10 catches for 126 yards on 14 targets. With Xavier Rhodes having a down season at cornerback, Thomas can surpass those totals in the third matchup.
Saints vs. Vikings prediction
The Saints' passing game will make the difference with Brees and Thomas connecting for a big day with others getting in on the scoring fun. Kamara is hot again and a tough draw for the Vikings' linebackers in coverage, too. The Saints will make Cousins throw in uncomfortable situations by slowing down the running game and working to take away the deep shots to Diggs. The Saints are better positioned to grind out a physical game and pull away a little in the fourth quarter.
Saints 27, Vikings 17
