When the Saints (5-2) travel to face the Buccaneers (6-2) on "Sunday Night Football" (8:20 p.m. ET, NBC) in the penultimate game of NFL Week 9, control of the NFC South will be at stake. New Orleans won the first meeting at home in Week 1, 34-23 and can go for the key season sweep.
Since that loss, the Bucs have had only one blemish, losing at Chicago in Week 5, where the Saints just won in Week 8.. The Saints have fallen to the Raiders and the Packers, two teams the Bucs routed in recent weeks.
Both teams should be getting big-time wide receiver reinforcements for their future Hall of Fame forty-something quarterbacks, Drew Brees and Tom Brady. Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders are set to help Brees again, while Brady is set for a healthy Chris Godwin and debuting Antonio Brown.
Here's everything to know about betting on Saints vs. Buccaneers in Week 9, including updated odds, trends and our prediction for "Sunday Night Football."
Saints vs. Buccaneers odds for 'Sunday Night Football'
- Spread: Buccaneers by 4.5
- Over/under: 50.5
- Point spread odds: Saints +190, Buccaneers -220
The Bucs have hovered around this number all week. The over/under keeps slipping a little bit because of how much better the defenses are playing of late, despite the offenses potentially having more pop. The Bucs still have only a little more than home-field advantage as part of their line.
Saints vs. Buccaneers all-time series
The Saints lead 36-21 with the teams becoming twice-a-year division foes starting only in 2002, when the Saints moved from the NFC West and the the Bucs moved from the NFC Central. The Saints have won four straight, last losing in September 2018 in a shocking home season opener. The Saints also have won six of eight and 14 of 18. The Bucs will be trying to change a trend of recent domination.
Three trends to know
— 58 percent of bettors like the Saints to get within 4 points and cover the spread as mild road underdogs.
— Bettors are split 50-50 on whether to take the over of just above 50 points. Note the Bucs are averaging 30.9 points per game and the Saints are averaging 29.4, adding up to more than 60.
— The Saints are 2-5 against the spread this season. The Bucs are 4-3-1 against the spread this season. The total has gone over in all 7 Saints games. The total has gone over in 5 of 8 Bucs games.
Three things to watch
The Saints' wide receivers vs. the Bucs' secondary
Thomas and Sanders present different challenges. Thomas catches everything when he gets open on intermediate routes. Sanders is more of a big-play threat, but Brees isn't really pushing the ball downfield much. Carlton Davis is emerging as a shutdown corner, while Sean Murphy-Bunting and Jamel Dean have flashed plenty in coverage. But they tend to have some big lapses, too, where they can get beat for deep shot or on longer red-zone strikes.
The Bucs' wide receivers. vs. the Saints' secondary
The Saints have had plenty of issues on the back end. Marshon Lattimore has gone back to struggling, Janoris Jenkins is inconsistent and Patrick Robinson's age is showing. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown and Scotty Miller are tough covers all over the field because of the mix of size, speed, quickness, hands, routes. That's before getting to tight end Rob Gronkowski, as the Saints also have struggled to handle more athletici targets at that position.
Brady vs. Brees and the TD record
Brady took a 561-560 lead for the all-time mark in regular-season scoring passes on Monday night of Week 8, leap-frogging over Brees' effort on Sunday. There's a chance Brady can start to create some real separation, as he on pace to throw 40 TDs for only the second time in his career at age 43. Brees is on pace for just fewer than 30 TD passes. At this point, Brady have proved to be the better all-around older passes while there have been some questions about Brees' weakening arm.
Stat that matters
70.4 vs. 90.6. The first number is the average number of rushing yards per game the Buccaneers' defense gives up, or good for No. 1 in the NFL for a second consecutive season under Todd Bowles. The second number is what the Saints are giving up, good for No. 3 in the league behind the Colts. The Saints are far more dependent on the running game with Alvin Kamara to win, while the Bucs are more OK with eschewing the run and letting Brady chuck when needed.
Saints vs. Buccaneers prediction
The Saints got the Bucs at the right time in Week 1, while they were adapting to the newness of Brady on the heels of an unusual offseason. There were other key moving parts trying to get settled, too. The Saints have Kamara getting some needed support, the Bucs are now fully locked in and loaded with Brady as he now has the better overall receiving corps than Brees. Look for Brady, who threw a pick six in the first meeting, to pick apart the Saints everywhere on the back end often.
Buccaneers 31, Saints 23
