There are big contract negotiations in the NFL every summer. This year, none will be bigger than Drew Brees’ negotiation with the Saints.
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Salary-cap strapped New Orleans is caught between a rock and a hard place with Brees, who will be a free agent in 2017. The Saints have almost no leverage to use against Brees, who can look to become the highest-paid player in the NFL at 37, an age when players can decline dramatically almost overnight.
This will be an incredibly difficult contract for the Saints to work through. Here are the reasons why.
Saints’ leverage problems
If he chooses to use it, Brees will have the most leverage in the history of the NFL. Most players would be faced with the threat of a franchise tag, a major negative for a player looking to sign his final big contract. But Brees’ situation is unique.
He already has been subject to the franchise tag multiple times in his career. When that occurs, the tag is calculated as a percentage of the player's prior year salary. Because of cap concerns, the Saints backloaded Brees’ contract, and he will carry a 2016 cap number of $30 million, which is effectively the base for his 2017 tag calculation.
If the Saints tag Brees next year, it would result in a one-year, fully-guaranteed contract worth nearly $43 million, a total that would count completely against their cap in 2017. That is not a feasible number, nor would it be practical. The Saints could consider using the transition tag, but even that would cost nearly $36 million.
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The problems don’t stop with the franchise tag — the Saints have cap issues this season. Once June hits, they will have around $3 million in cap space, which barely will be enough to cover the expansion of the roster to 53 in September. That limits options for a Brees extension and gives him the right to seek a massive signing bonus, which not only increases his upfront cash intake, but also makes the cap hit to release him challenging.
The Saints have no soft factors on which to fall back. They seemingly had begun sending out the narrative that an older quarterback should consider taking a discount for the team. The reference points were Tom Brady and, to a lesser extent, Peyton Manning. Brady took a low-cost contract with the Patriots, while Manning took a $4 million pay cut to stay with the Broncos. But in the interim, the Patriots extended Brady on a $20.5 million-per-year contract with $28 million guaranteed.
What will Brees seek?
Brees is one of the players union's leaders and likely will seek to ensure that his contract becomes a new standard for the next generation of quarterbacks — Andrew Luck, in particular. Here are some key contract metrics that might be marks for Brees to reach.
A likely contract would contain a $41 million signing bonus, $60 million fully guaranteed, 2016 and 2017 base salaries and a partial guarantee on his 2018 salary. There also would be a partial injury guarantee on the third contract year. The average per year on this contract would be $22.5 million, with a three-year cash flow of $71 million. Here’s how that might look for the Saints.
Dangers of the contract
The problem with a contract like this is the fact that Brees is close to 40. Manning went from an MVP winner to barely being able to throw the football within a season. Brett Favre looked as good as any quarterback in the NFL but just a few months later looked like one of the worst. Skills can diminish quick, and contracts like this don’t allow for such a possibility.
The Saints would tie themselves to Brees through at least age 39. At 40, the dead money would be $16.2 million, which might be fair given the rising salary cap but still is a high number. While this is the same risk the Patriots have taken, Brady’s contract will play far better on the cap — his cap hit is just $14 million in the years when he can’t be cut — than that of Brees, who would be well over $20 million in 2017 and 2018.
But do the Saints even have another option?
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Unless they are willing to let Brees leave next season, they do not. For the purposes of hitting certain contract metrics that Brees should demand, it will be even worse if they wait until after the season to work the contract. This is not a situation where the Saints can wait to see whether the team is a playoff contender in 2016.
The Saints are responsible for Brees gaining this much leverage, and now they need to keep their fingers crossed that Brees can escape Father Time for a few more years.