The Saints threw away Thursday night's game in Atlanta, and with it a big chance to possibly clinch an NFC playoff berth in Week 14 — and get closer to their first NFC South title in six years.
With the Falcons coming back to steal a much-needed 20-17 home victory over their archrival division leaders, Atlanta (8-5) got within one game of New Orleans (9-4) with the teams headed for a bigger rematch in two weeks.
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The Falcons not only improved their chances to repeat in the South, but the win also was a strike against the conference's wild-card contenders behind and ahead of them in the standings. Here's a full breakdown of the repercussions for all teams involved:
What it means for the Falcons
If Atlanta wins its final three games — at Tampa Bay, at New Orleans, vs. Carolina — it would indeed earn a second straight division title. The fact the Falcons, currently No. 7 in the NFC, also have wins over the No. 5 Seahawks (8-4), No. 8 Lions (6-6), No. 9 Packers (6-6) and No. 10 Cowboys (6-6), means that winning just two out of the final three to get to 10-6 would put them in pretty good shape to get at least a wild card as the sixth seed. The key to that, if they're not able to sweep the Saints, would be beating the Panthers at home in Week 17.
The Falcons would be in wild-card position at No. 6 after Week 14 should the Panthers beat the Vikings and the Seahawks lose to the Jaguars.
What it means for the Saints
If New Orleans wins its final three games — vs. the Jets, vs. Atlanta, at Tampa Bay — it would win the South. Given the other two matchups sandwiching the Falcons sequel, it would be shocking for the Saints to finish worse than 11-5. That still might be good enough to take the division, if neither the Panthers (whom they swept) nor Falcons run the table.
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Unless the Saints finish 1-2 to drop to 10-6, they won't need to sweat out whether they will need to fall back on a wild-card berth. That's because it's impossible for the Panthers to finish 12-4 and the Falcons to end up 11-5 because they play each other in Week 17. The Saints' worst nightmare is losing again to the Falcons, the Panthers fading hard to 9-7 or worse and the Seahawks surging to the NFC West title ahead of the Rams. In that case, should the Saints, Falcons and Rams all go 11-5, the Saints would lose the head-to-head tiebreakers and be the odd team out.
For now, the Saints are locked into No. 4 coming out of Week 14 no matter what happens with the Eagles, Rams, Vikings or Panthers on Sunday.
What it means for the Panthers
The Falcons' win was a bad development for the Panthers (8-4), despite the fact the result allows them to move back into a virtual tie for first place with the Saints with a home win over the Vikings on Sunday. Having already lost twice to the Saints, the Panthers need to finish a full game ahead to win the South, and that likely means 12-4, and that means winning out. That will be extremely hard for Carolina with No. 1 Minnesota coming to town and maybe Aaron Rodgers-led Green Bay in Week 15, well before the showdown in Atlanta in Week 17. Between that is their favorable game vs. Tampa Bay.
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The Panthers have a shaky conference record (4-4) in relation to the Falcons (7-2) and Saints (7-3). Their biggest asset heading into the final four games is their home win over the Falcons, which sets them up for a possible season sweep in what could be a "winner take wild card" showdown in Week 17. The Panthers could even afford to lose to both the Vikings and the Packers and still set up that showdown should the Falcons split with the Saints.
Win or lose against the Vikings, the Panthers will end Week 14 either at No. 5 or No. 6.
The Buccaneers can play spoiler in all of this. After playing the Lions in Week 14, they'll get a shot at all three NFC South contenders. An upset loss to the bottom-feeders could be disastrous for the Falcons, Panthers or Saints.
What it means for the Seahawks
Seattle (8-4) now needs to win in Jacksonville on Sunday, or hope that Minnesota beats Carolina, to stay at No. 5 — and not fall to No. 7 behind Carolina and Atlanta. The Seahawks are thinking bigger, though; they're looking to beat the Jaguars and hoping the Eagles knock off the Rams so they can take back first place in the NFC West before attempting to sweep the Rams at home in Week 15.
In the end, the Seahawks want to avoid getting stuck fighting for the final wild card with the Falcons, given they lose the head-to-head tiebreaker in that scenario.
What it means for the Packers and Cowboys
The closer Atlanta gets to 10-6, the worse it gets for the faint wild-card hopes of Green Bay and Dallas. The Falcons' home victories over both teams remain huge obstacles. The Packers and Cowboys are better off now with the Falcons surging to win the South, and then attaching their chances to either the Rams, Seahawks or Panthers falling flat.
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The Packers beat the Seahawks and will get the Panthers in Week 15. The Cowboys lost to the Rams, but they'll get a direct shot at the Seahawks right when Ezekiel Elliott (suspension) is set to return at home in Week 16. The Packers remain the better bet of the two, having beaten the Cowboys with Rodgers.
After the Saints failed to come through for them, the Packers and Cowboys now desperately need to root for the Eagles, Jaguars and Vikings on Sunday.
