What Saints' shocking loss to Falcons means for NFC playoff picture, Super Bowl chances

Vinnie Iyer

What Saints' shocking loss to Falcons means for NFC playoff picture, Super Bowl chances image

Before Week 10, the Saints were looking like they were marching toward the top seed in the NFC playoffs for a second consecutive season. After Sunday's stunning 26-9 home loss to the last-place NFC South rival Falcons, it's time to try to make sense of what it means.

At first glance, it was New Orleans (7-2) simply getting beat up by an inspired Atlanta team (2-7) finally living up to defensive expectations for its beleaguered but beloved head coach, Dan Quinn. On second thought, even one bad game can have lasting repercussions.

WATCH: Full Saints vs. Falcons highlights

Here are the ripple effects of the Saints' second loss of the season, which ended their six-game winning streak and came after a bye.

The Saints still need to sweat it out a little in the NFC South.

New Orleans missed a chance to go up three games on Carolina (5-4) in the division after the Panthers lost at Green Bay later in the day. That's somewhat significant because the teams haven't played each other yet.

So the Panthers have two cracks at the Saints, in Weeks 12 and 17. The other remaining games on the schedule are more in the Panthers' favor.

The Saints remain the Big Easy favorites to take a third consecutive division title, but now they need to do some work to try to pull away again.

MORE: Updated NFL playoff picture after Week 10

The Saints are now behind both the 49ers and Packers in the NFC.

The 49ers (8-0), should they beat the Seahawks (7-2) on Monday, would have a two-game lead for home-field advantage with seven games left to play. The Packers (8-2) go into their Week 11 bye with a half-game lead over the Saints and a superior 5-1 conference record.

The Saints will play the 49ers in Week 14 at home, but they might do only limited damage in trying to catch up should the 49ers continue to have that extra cushion.

The Saints do not play the Packers, so that's where that extra conference loss can loom large in the race for at least getting the No. 2 seed and a first-round playoff bye.

MORE: What we learned from Saints vs. Falcons

The Saints' Super Bowl-worthy strengths are now more obvious . . .

There are two things that didn't cost the Saints against the Falcons: the defense and the running game. These were the main elements that allowed them to go 5-0 without Drew Brees and with Teddy Bridgewater. Those remain intact after Sunday.

Don't be fooled by the numbers against the Falcons. The Saints gave up 143 yards rushing, but the Falcons needed 34 attempts to get that done. Also, a chunk of the production came late when running out the clock on a significant lead, and 17 came on one attempt by wide receiver Calvin Ridley.

Top cornerback Marshon Lattimore had to leave the game with a thigh injury, but Matt Ryan (5.1 yards per attempt) and his receivers struggled to be effective on intermediate passes for most of the game, with the production inflated by a 54-yard connection with Julio Jones, who was mostly quiet otherwise.

Because of the flipped game script, the Saints were forced out of rushing as well as they can. Through just 11 carries between Alvin Kamara, Latavius Murray, Taysom Hill and Ted Ginn Jr., they gained a healthy 51 yards. The Saints have a good offensive line, but it still is better at operating downhill regularly than being called upon to pass protect in high volume for Brees.

MORE: Brees explains Saints' loss in 40 seconds

. . . and so is the Saints' Super Bowl-unworthy weakness.

Brees ended up dropping back 51 times and was sacked six times. Going into the game, the Saints had given up only 12 sacks all season. The Saints were also undisciplined, with 12 penalties for 90 yards, and inefficient in going 3 for 15 combined on third and fourth downs.

Although those were anomalous developments, there is a takeaway there: The Saints are not at their best when they throw the ball too often.

They're down to being a three-target team, with nothing daunting at wide receiver beyond Michael Thomas. Jared Cook is a good tight end but not really a field-stretcher down the seam, and Kamara, who's going through an injury-riddled season, hasn't been the same open-field threat on shorter passes.

Brees is an all-time great, but there was no reason to suddenly deviate from what was rolling with Bridgewater and try to invoke the prolific downfield passing of the past that isn't there in the present. Sure, Brees was able to pick apart the Cardinals in Week 9 in his first game back from a thumb injury, and there was temptation to do the same to a Falcons team that was giving up a ton of big pass plays before Week 10.

But Atlanta learned it could squeeze Brees without much worry of being burned deep. Time of possession is critical for New Orleans. The Saints went into the game third in the league in that category, at 33:18, right behind two other Super Bowl contenders, the 49ers and Ravens. Yet the Falcons had the ball for more than 33 minutes Sunday. The Saints lost their offensive identity, and that was timed poorly with the Falcons finding their defensive identity.

With the heart of November here, December around the corner and January not far behind, the Saints needed a little wake-up call for the stretch run. They certainly got it.

The 49ers and Packers have proved to be difficult to throw against, but there are strong hints that top running games give both teams a lot more trouble. The Saints are designed to beat both teams, but to get to the Super Bowl, they need to execute what they do best, and do it cleanly.

Vinnie Iyer

Vinnie Iyer Photo

Vinnie Iyer, has been with TSN since 1999, not long after graduating from Northwestern University’s Medill School of Journalism. He has produced NFL content for more than 20 years, turning his attention to full-time writing in 2007. A native of St. Louis, Mo. but now a long-time resident of Charlotte, N.C. Vinnie’s top two professional sports teams are Cardinals and Blues, but he also carries purple pride for all things Northwestern Wildcats. He covers every aspect of the NFL for TSN including player evaluations, gambling and fantasy football, where he is a key contributor. Vinnie represents TSN as host of the “Locked On Fantasy Football” podcast on the Locked On network. Over his many years at TSN, he’s also written about MLB, NBA, NASCAR, college football, tennis, horse racing, film and television. His can’t-miss program remains “Jeopardy!”, where he was once a three-day champion and he is still avid about crossword puzzles and trivia games. When not watching sports or his favorite game show, Vinnie is probably watching a DC, Marvel or Star Wars-related TV or movie.