AccuScore ’s computer simulates games 10,000 times to predict their outcome. Throughout the football season, we’ll be stacking up these forecasts against Las Vegas money-lines. When AccuScore gives a team a better chance to win than the money-line odds imply, it’s a recommended play.
Here’s a pick for the wild-card round:
After getting some help from the Chiefs, the Ravens secured a wild-card spot and will face their long-time rival Steelers this Saturday (8:15 p.m. ET, NBC). The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook has the Ravens listed at odds of +155 on the money line, implying about a 39 percent chance of winning the game outright.
AccuScore data, however, picks a different winner than Vegas odds do. Rather than a 39 percent chance to win, AccuScore gives Baltimore a 51.2 percent chance of winning. That translates into money-line odds of -105. According to AccuScore, the wrong team is favored, making the +155 an attractive betting opportunity.
The average score after 10,000 simulations is 24.7-24.3. Baltimore has a 54.1 percent chance of covering the 3-point spread as the underdog, a 4-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend.
The total combined score going OVER 45 is a two-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend.
Turnovers play a key role in close simulations like this one. The Ravens commit fewer turnovers in 53 percent of simulations and go on to win 60 percent of games when they take better care of the ball. The Steelers win 59 percent of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers.
With Steelers RB Le'Veon Bell out for this matchup, the game could come down to which QB has a better performance.
Joe Flacco is averaging 285 passing yards per simulated game. If he has a game with greater than 285 passing yards and at least a 2-to-1 TD to INT ratio – of which there's a 39 percent chance – Baltimore’s winning probability jumps from 51 to 66 percent.
If Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger throws for more than 321 passing yards and has the proper TD-to-INT ratio – a 41 percent chance – Pittsburgh’s winning probability goes from 49 to 62 percent.
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