LAS VEGAS – The Bengals and Ravens will complete their season series when they square off for the second time this year in a key AFC North matchup at Paul Brown Stadium on Sunday (1 p.m. ET, CBS). Cincinnati won the 2014 season opener between the teams 23-16 at Baltimore as a 1-point underdog and could end up closing as a dog again at home despite going 7-3-1 against the spread in the last 11 meetings.
The Line: Ravens -2, Total: 45.5
Line movement and notes: The Bengals opened as 3-point home favorites at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook on Sunday but have seen the line move against them this week. The total opened 46.5 at the SuperBook and has dropped to 45.5 in early betting action. Both moves could be related to the continued questionable status of Cincinnati wide receiver A.J. Green, who is still nursing a toe injury that has kept him out the last two games, both of which has resulted in losses. For updated spreads and totals from around Las Vegas, visit our live odds page.
Trends that matter: The Ravens are 1-4 SU & ATS in their last five road games against AFC North opponents. The Bengals are 4-0 SU & ATS in their last four home games against AFC North opponents....The Bengals are 11-2 in their last 13 home games....The Bengals are 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings with the Ravens....The UNDER is 3-1 in the last four meetings.
Ravens hot, Bengals not so much: It’s amazing how much can change in the NFL over a month’s time. On Sept. 21, Cincinnati improved to 3-0 straight-up and ATS following a 33-7 rout of the Titans at home. Meanwhile, Baltimore needed a Justin Tucker field goal as time expired to beat the Browns 23-21 on the road to avoid a 1-2 start, with all three of the team’s first three games coming against divisional foes.
Fast forward to Week 8, and the Bengals have gone 0-2-1 SU and 0-3 ATS since their bye, while the Ravens have won three of four to seize control of first place in the AFC North standings. Baltimore has been able to overcome some early-season drama surrounding running back Ray Rice, and Cincinnati has struggled to deal with a nagging injury to one of its best players in wide receiver Green. The betting public has certainly taken notice of each team’s recent play, which has changed the Bengals from being small home favorites to underdogs.
Cincinnati is 11-2 ATS in its past 13 home games but has been a home dog just twice during that stretch. According to the OddsShark NFL Database, the Bengals have won their previous three games as a home dog, with the last occurrence coming against the Patriots in Week 5 of last season and resulting in a 13-6 victory. Before their recent winning streak as a home dog, they had lost four in a row along with seven of nine under that scenario. The OVER is 8-3 in Cincy’s past 11 games as a home dog.
The rise of the Ravens can also be found in the latest release of the Don Best/Linemakers NFL Power Ratings, which has them rated as the second-best team in the league, behind only the Broncos. Baltimore was tied for No. 3 last week, but a second consecutive loss for the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks made them switch spots in the ratings.
Weather: The forecast calls for mild temperatures, in the mid- to high-60s, with sunny skies and a light breeze. Weather should not be a factor. Visit Weather Underground for the latest forecast.
Handicapping tools: Matchup analysis | BAL team page | CIN team page
The Linemakers' lean: The line catches our attention -- Baltimore was a 1-point favorite at home vs. the Bengals in Week 1, and Cincy won the game 23-16. The Bengals have been a money-making machine at home over the past two season, with a 37-37 tie against Carolina two weeks ago the only regular-season game in which they haven't covered the spread since the start of the 2013 season. Furthermore, Cincy has won and covered as favorites in its last two home meetings against Baltimore.
We also expect Cincy to come out offensively with a chip on its shoulder after being shut out last week, and Baltimore's been putting plenty of points on the board this season.
Cincy +1, OVER 45.5 are the plays.
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