NFL teams are perpetually desperate for quarterbacks, but they still have their limitations. That was evident in 2022 when Kenny Pickett was the only signal-caller selected within the first two rounds.
Drafts with four, five, or even more quarterbacks taken in Round 1 are far from a regular occurrence, but this year's draft has a chance to rival some of the best quarterback-rich classes of all-time in terms of how early signal-callers are selected.
The 2021 quarterback class won't go down as a strong one, but it flashed rare strength on draft night with five passers taken in the top 15 picks. The year before was similarly strong, with four first-round quarterbacks and another notable second-rounder.
As the quarterback class of 2024 prepares to go its separate way in the NFL, it's not hard to see how this year's group, headlined by Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, and Jayden Daniels, resembles the 2020 crop headlined by Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, and Justin Herbert.
Here's a look at how each group of quarterbacks stacks up, four years apart.
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Revisiting the 2020 quarterback class
Five quarterbacks were drafted in the first two rounds of the 2020 NFL Draft, including four in the first round:
2020 Day 1 & 2 picks
- No. 1: Joe Burrow, Bengals
- No. 5: Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins
- No. 6: Justin Herbert, Chargers
- No. 26: Jordan Love, Packers
- No. 53: Jalen Hurts, Eagles
While most quarterback classes produced mixed results, at best, the class of 2020 has been excellent through four seasons. Burrow took the Bengals to the Super Bowl in his second season, while Tagovailoa and Herbert are both Pro Bowlers still searching for playoff success.
Hurts broke through in 2022, taking the Eagles to the Super Bowl, while Love enjoyed a strong debut season as the Packers' starter in 2023 and surprisingly took Green Bay to the divisional round.
Burrow, Herbert, and Hurts have all signed massive extensions already, and shiny new deals for Tagovailoa and Love are inevitable even if they're not quite as lucrative as the contracts signed by their counterparts.
It's highly unlikely the 2024 quarterback class will produce as many long-term starters as the 2020 class, simply because classes like 2020 are extraordinarily rare. Still, there are some notable similarities between this year's group and the crop of quarterbacks that was drafted during the heart of the COVID-19 pandemic.
MORE: Redrafting the loaded 2020 NFL Draft
How does the 2024 QB class compare to 2020?
If the 2024 quarterback class can't beat the 2020 class in terms of greatness, it should be able to win on quantity. As many as six quarterbacks could come off the board in the first round, with four considered first-round locks and at least one of Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr. likely to be taken Thursday night, as well.
2024 projected Day 1 & 2 picks
- Top-5: Caleb Williams, USC
- Top-5: Jayden Daniels, LSU
- Top-5: Drake Maye, North Carolina
- Round 1: J.J. McCarthy, Michigan
- Round 1-2: Bo Nix, Oregon
- Round 1-2: Michael Penix Jr., Washington
- Round 2-3: Spencer Rattler, South Carolina
Here's a look at how the 2024 class lines up with 2020's crop of quarterbacks from their respective prospect profiles rather than just style of play.
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Joe Burrow vs. Caleb Williams
2020 and 2024 both have a surefire No. 1 pick at the quarterback position. As promising as Herbert and Tagovailoa were coming out of college, Burrow cemented himself as the clear top choice with his dominant 2019 season. Williams wasn't quite as dominant in 2023, but he's a fellow Heisman Trophy winner whose skill set and poise are just too tantalizing to pass up on.
From an on-field standpoint, there are similarities as well. Williams' athleticism and ability to extend plays is impressive, but these are two quarterbacks who thrive in the pocket and don't rely on mobility to run a high-flying offense.
RELATED: Why Caleb Williams is drawing Patrick Mahomes comparisons
Drake Maye vs. Justin Herbert
Drake Maye is the Justin Herbert of the 2024 NFL Draft. Herbert was long considered a legitimate first-round prospect and even a No. 1 pick contender because he simply looked like an NFL quarterback at Oregon. Along with impressive production, Herbert had the requisite size and arm talent that screamed "franchise quarterback."
In the end, a handful of teams likely overthought Herbert's ability. Anyone could have made an effort to trade up ahead of the Dolphins and Chargers to take him, and someone would have if they knew he would become a top-10 NFL quarterback. A few bumps against tougher competition in his senior season proved to be irrelevant for Herbert, and his tools instantly translated to the next level.
Maye's trajectory could play out similarly. The North Carolina quarterback has the size and arm strength that say he should absolutely be a franchise quarterback. Late-season struggles with the Tar Heels, in some cases against inferior competition, soured some on his ability. He might now be the third quarterback off the board, just as Herbert was.
Maye is younger than Herbert was on draft day by about five months, and it wouldn't be fair to expect him to produce the kind of rookie season Herbert did. Any team that drafts Maye should understand development could take time. Still, it wouldn't be surprising to see the Commanders regret passing on a quarterback who meets the criteria to be a franchise quarterback just like the Dolphins may or may not regret passing on Herbert.
RELATED: Best-case (Justin Herbert) and worst-case (Sam Howell) comps for Drake Maye
Jayden Daniels vs. Tua Tagovailoa
If the Commanders do pass on Maye, it's almost certainly going to be Jayden Daniels at the No. 2 spot. Daniels doesn't play similarly to Tagovailoa by any stretch, but he could be this year's Tagovailoa as an SEC quarterback with gaudy numbers who jumps the higher-ceiling quarterback many expected to come off the board first.
Tagovailoa went ahead of Herbert despite a concerning hip injury suffered at Alabama, and part of the reason was such high-level success against tough competition. While Daniels admittedly torched smaller schools during his Heisman campaign, he also lit up the SEC and likely won teams over when he finished strong against tough competition while Maye hit bumps against Virginia and NC State.
Tagovailoa has enjoyed a fine NFL career, injury concerns aside. It's also unlikely the Dolphins would win the Tagovailoa vs. Herbert debate four years after they drafted Tagovailoa over Herbert. The Daniels vs. Maye feels like it could play out similarly, with Daniels turning 24 this season and Maye seemingly having a chance to round into the more complete quarterback.
RELATED: Daniels draws RG3, Lamar Jackson comparisons
J.J. McCarthy vs. Jordan Love
The wild card of the first round is J.J. McCarthy, just like it was Jordan Love four years ago.
McCarthy doesn't profile quite like Love. Love wasn't considered a "safe" pick, and while McCarthy has some question marks, he's coming off a national championship season. Like Love, however, McCarthy will enter the NFL with everything to prove. Fans generally aren't as high on McCarthy as front offices are, and they weren't high on Love after he threw 17 interceptions in his final season at Utah State.
The Packers bet on Love's potential and brushed off fan concerns, believing they had their future ready to replace Aaron Rodgers when the timing was right. McCarthy will almost certainly be drafted much earlier than Love, but the team that drafts him will similarly have to ignore the social media comments and wait until September — or later — to prove they made the right pick.
RELATED: How good is Michigan's J.J. McCarthy?
Michael Penix Jr. and Bo Nix vs. Jalen Hurts
Penix has often been compared to fellow lefty Tagovailoa, while opinions on Nix are scattered across the board. What we do know is that Penix and Nix are two college stars and Heisman Trophy finalists who haven't sold many teams on the idea that they can be franchise quarterbacks. Does that sound familiar?
Jalen Hurts turned in an excellent season at Oklahoma before entering the 2020 NFL Draft, but the second round was seen as his ceiling. Penix and Nix could very well come off the board on Thursday night and avoid the same fate, but NFL front offices see flaws in their profiles that knock them a tier below Williams, Maye, Daniels, and McCarthy.
RELATED: Nix talks about Drew Brees comparisons | Best-case, worst-case comps for Penix
Hurts' athleticism was undeniable coming out of college, though his ceiling as a passer relegated him to a backup role to start his career. Penix and Nix are much more polished passers, but they should be — they're much older than Hurts was when he entered the NFL. In fact, they're less than two years older than Hurts right now. NFL teams likely have concerns about how high their ceilings can go at this point.
Penix excelled at the deep ball at Washington but played in a loaded offense and comes with a lengthy injury history. Nix's raw numbers were excellent at Oregon, but he largely stuck to short and intermediate throws. Nix also didn't start to look like a legitimate NFL prospect until very late in his college career.
Hurts, Penix, and Nix all profile differently. From a stock standpoint, however, Penix and Nix could each be the Hurts of this draft: legitimate college stars who comfortably sit a tier or two below the best quarterbacks in the draft and might not get the chance to be franchise quarterbacks from day one.
