With the 2024 season a shade over a week away, NFL experts from different media outlets have been putting out record predictions for the Pittsburgh Steelers and the rest of the NFL.
There isn't a ton of optimism surrounding the Steelers going into 2024 — at least when it comes to the national media — which is surprising considering the Steelers are coming off a 10-win, playoff season and have since upgraded the quarterback position with the additions of starter Russell Wilson and backup Justin Fields.
Say what you want about their respective struggles in the past few years, both are still better than former Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett, who was an abject disaster in 2023.
The Steelers haven't had a losing season under head coach Mike Tomlin, a streak that spans 17 years. However, the majority of expert record predictions we have rounded up has that run ending in 2024. Take a look.
Steelers 2024 record predictions from experts
The Athletic: 7.6 wins
Mike Tomlin has been the model of consistency, never finishing with a losing record in 17 seasons as coach. The biggest threat to that streak is one of the NFL’s most challenging schedules. The Steelers play in arguably the league’s most competitive division. The backstretch is brutal, with three games — at Baltimore, at Philadelphia and vs. Kansas City — in 10 days in December. Still, it would be hard to bet against Tomlin’s history, making the 7.6 win projection a little low. The remade offensive line and new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith should help. If Tomlin can get to .500 or better with Mason Rudolph and Duck Hodges at QB, he should be able to do it with Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. — Mike DeFabo
Conor Orr, Sports Illustrated: 10-7
This pick embodies my overall nervousness. The Steelers have a lot of issues, the most important of which is that Russell Wilson is still throwing dangerously into traffic and looks like he lacks the mobility to evade rushers being generated from Pittsburgh’s scattershot, slow-developing offensive line. If they had just traded for Justin Fields this offseason and handed him the QB job out of the gate, I think I’d feel differently, knowing that he got a bulk of the starters’ snaps and that offensive coordinator Arthur Smith didn’t have to concern himself with trying to dig into the Wilson archives to make an offense work. All that said, the Steelers’ first eight games of the season are more than winnable, and I have them going 4–4 while the offense gets settled. After the bye, I have them going 3–2 which, again, still feels reasonable given that I don’t see them dropping both games to the Browns in a short span. I can’t get over the idea that this team was able to do so much with so little firepower at the QB position last year. Fields, if and when he wins this job, should be able to generate some leads and allow this pass rush to shine.
Will Brinson, CBS Sports: 6-11
The quarterback concerns are pretty big in Pittsburgh. The Steelers upgraded to Russell Wilson/Justin Fields, but Wilson hasn't even been on the field during much of training camp. That throws things into severe flux at the position. Fields could be a fantasy darling, but I don't know if his athletic style of quarterbacking will necessarily translate to a bunch of wins. The departure of Diontae Johnson means the Steelers are lacking on the wide receiver depth chart. George Pickens has unlimited upside with his skillset. After him, there was buzz about Van Jefferson as their WR2, although Calvin Austin III and Roman Wilson have made some interesting noise in training camp. Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren are physical runners, and I tend to think an Arthur Smith offense is going to feature them heavily. I don't expect this to be an explosive unit. Defensively, if the Steelers are the top-five unit they can be, this might end up looking like a foolish projection. Fifteen-plus games of T.J. Watt is an absolute must because of how this defense drops off when he's out of the lineup.
Dakota Zientek, Pro Football Network: 7-10
For their second season in a row, the Baltimore Ravens clinch the AFC North, making their case for the league’s best defense in 2024. Allowing just 315 points in this simulated season, Baltimore’s defense allowed 25 fewer points than any team in the AFC.
Cincinnati is the only other AFC North team to earn a playoff berth, while the Cleveland Browns squeak out a winning season. However, the biggest surprise in this division is Mike Tomlin losing his 17-season streak of winning seasons for the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Dan Pizzuta, The 33rd Team: Under 8.5 wins
Going under on a Mike Tomlin team, especially one set to finish under .500, has not been a smart bet, but if there’s a year the streak can be broken, it’s this one.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have two flawed quarterbacks who don’t see the middle of the field well and finished 22nd and 23rd in EPA per play last season. George Pickens is the only plus receiver to go along with Pat Frieimuth, so there won’t be a lot of help in the receiving room.
The defense would have to do a lot of heavy lifting. Pittsburgh finished eighth in EPA per play on defense last season but might have to push it to a top-five unit for this to go over.
Davis did not provide a write-up for his prediction, but he has the Steelers with an 8-9 mark and finishing in last place, something the franchise hasn't done since the late 80s and has never done in the history of the AFC North.
