The Colts had trouble bridging the gap from Andrew Luck at quarterback last season. With Philip Rivers starting in 2020, Indianapolis is 5-3 going into the Week 10 Thursday night division battle at Tennessee and in AFC playoff contention under coach Frank Reich again.
After finishing 7-9 with Jacoby Brissett in 2019, the Colts decided to turn to the 38-year-old Rivers, signing him soon after he was released by his previous only NFL team, the Chargers, in March.
In an offseason when Tom Brady, Teddy Bridgewater, Nick Foles, Andy Dalton, Joe Flacco and Cam Newton all changed teams, the Colts seemed to lock into their veteran QB replacement early. Here's a look back at Indianapolis' reasoning for rolling with Rivers and the results so far:
MORE: What should the Colts do at quarterback in 2021?
Why the Colts' signing of Philip Rivers made sense
Brissett played at an average level last season. He wasn't much different from the younger QB who also started 15 times in 2017. He struggled to push the ball downfield and put up very similar numbers as a limited rusher.
The Colts signed Brissett through 2020 thinking he might be the short-term answer. But in the end, the dropoff to 7-9 from a 10-6 wild-card team in Luck's final season was unacceptable, given Indianapolis' strengths in its winning formula of running game and defense.
Bridge QB situations tend to occur when there is a previous relationship with the coaching staff. For the Colts, it was Reich, who served as Rivers' quarterbacks coach and then offensive coordinator for the Chargers from 2013-'15.
Rivers was rather efficient working with Reich with high volume when in San Diego, but it was a bit of mixed bag with Rivers struggling with pressure and having his typical sporadic spike in interceptions. After Reich left San Diego for Philadelphia, Rivers three consecutive Pro Bowl seasons under replacement coordinator Ken Whisenhunt, the last two for offensive-minded head coach Anthony Lynn.
There was hope Rivers could have one more late-career resurgence after going through more turnover troubles in 2019, getting a fresh boost from Reich's run-heavy system with a better line and a more diverse short-to-intermediate receiving corps. He hasn't quite lived up to that hope.
But Rivers did come with a few question marks
Rivers did show some declining arm strength and got back into messy gunslinging for the Chargers in 2019, to the point hitting 20 interceptions for the third time in his career couldn't be outweighed with enough big pass plays. In relation now, the older Brady looks sharp in making all the throws for the Buccaneers, while the younger Bridgewater has been more efficient and effective having the same kind of supporting cast with the Panthers.
Rivers, even with the league's most pristine pass protection, is well below Brady, Bridgewater and Foles in air yards. He's not ripping it up downfield and has 7 interceptions to go with 10 TD passes. He is slightly better than his slumping 2019, but not by much. He's become a care-taking distributor for a team that prefers to win with ball control and sometimes dominant defense from every level.
Rivers does fit better what Reich and Nick Sirianni want to do offensively, vs. Brissett, who was picked up for a different brand of West Coast scheme as an initial injury fill-in for Luck in '17. But to say it's a great return on investment with QB play is a stretch as Rivers' overall play is below average.
What is Philip Rivers' contract with the Colts?
Rivers was signed to a one-year deal worth $25 million. All of the money was guaranteed, like the $20 million Brissett got in September 2019. Rivers got $12 million of that in signing bonus.
In terms of average annual salary for this single season, Rivers ranks No. 14, behind the Lions' Matthew Stafford ($27 million) and Washington's Alex Smith ($23.5 million). Consider that ties with Rivers with three QBs of note who have performed considerably better than him in 2020: Brady, the Raiders' Derek Carr and the Saints' Drew Brees.
MORE: Why did Andrew Luck retire from the NFL?
Will the Colts re-sign Philip Rivers?
Rivers will turn 39 in December with age and wear continuing to become bigger factors. There's nothing that says Rivers is the best QB option for Indianapolis in 2021. Brissett is also headed to free agency.
The Colts could turn the position over to rookie fourth-rounder Jacob Eason in his second year, but it's more likely they tap into the 2021 draft for a longer-term solution. Even if they pick in the latter half of the first round, the Colts can have a shot at a viable rookie franchise QB, such as Alabama's Mac Jones or Florida's Kyle Trask.
There are two ways the season can finish for the Colts and the Rivers. The first is, he plays better in the second half, helping his team secure the AFC South title over the Titans. The second is, he deteriorates and the Colts also lose a wild-card position. Either way, Indianapolis should realize it has a limited ceiling with Rivers, not resembling their potential with Luck. That should point to them targeting their true successor next year.
