The Patriots know Chris Hogan will be a starter when the 2018 regular season begins. Everything else at wide receiver in New England leading up to Week 1 is anybody's guess.
OK, there is one more certainty: Julian Edelman will not play in the first four games, as his suspension related to PEDs was upheld last month. In the matter of one week-plus at training camp, the Patriots have reached somewhere around Plan F as they try to replace Edelman in the short term and compensate for the offseason loss of Brandin Cooks in the long term.
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Based on the way Edelman, Danny Amendola (now with Miami) and Cooks produced for New England last season, the Patriots need a reliable slot option and an outside deep threat who also has the open-field quickness to make big plays after the catch. Jordan Matthews (signed in free agency) and Malcolm Mitchell (on the mend from a knee injury) were penciled into those spots not long ago. Then Matthews hurt his hamstring and got cut. Mitchell didn't look healthy enough in his recovery, and he got cut, too.
In between those developments, Eric Decker, who played well against the Patriots in his final game with the Titans in the playoffs last season, was added to the roster. Before training camp, Kenny Britt, who had his option exercised for 2018, landed on active/PUP, also with a bad hamstring.
One would think the Patriots in this scenario are left scrambling for answers to give quarterback Tom Brady reliable targets that compliment tight end Rob Gronkowski. But the injuries and ineffectiveness have helped New England during its typical weeding-out process.
The Patriots are now looking at second-year undrafted receiver Riley McCarron as an Edelmandola clone who could be more valuable than rookie sixth-rounder Braxton Berrios. They are also open to more expanded roles for speedsters Phillip Dorsett and Cordarrelle Patterson.
New England does have a few good reasons to be aggressive with the shakeup. The first is Hogan, who is back fully healthy from the shoulder injury that cooled him off in the second half of last season. Hogan is not a typical No. 1 in terms of size, speed and age (30), but in typical New England fashion, he's being used as the ultimate Swiss Army knife.
Hogan is an underrated field-stretcher when working outside. He also can run the tough routes inside and has proved he can excel in the red zone. Hogan's versatility allows the Patriots to be more situationally specific on who will share the field with him, with or without Edelman.
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There's also a key development at tight end, where coaching-staff favorite Jacob Hollister has all but guaranteed he'll make the roster in Year 2 behind Gronkowski and Dwayne Allen. Hollister is an athletic, pure receiver, making him a bit of a wideout hybrid for the Patriots and another option inside.
With all that said, the Patriots did not need to wait for Matthews or Mitchell to heal, even if their mid-camp cuts seemed cold. It's actually surprising it took until camp for Decker, a one-time prolific scorer with the Broncos and Jets, to get a look from the Patriots. While with the Titans, he proved he has plenty left as a possession receiver splitting time outside and in the slot.
New England has not taken a conventional path to the solution, but Decker can be an adequate fill-in for Edelman, and then be effective in red-zone subpackages after Edelman returns. Decker's game complements Hogan's well.
Dorsett did not deliver much with his speed last season, but the Patriots are now pushing him to be a more complete receiver. He has responded well enough so far to make Britt the next receiver who's expendable. With Dorsett and Patterson, New England can get the explosive plays a recovering Mitchell couldn't provide. Patterson also has value as a return man; anything he provides as a receiver and trick-play runner is a bonus.
Between Hogan, Decker, Dorsett, Patterson and Hollister, the Patriots can cover all their bases until Edelman returns. As for the seasoned, integral parts of the passing game, Gronkowski and running back James can set themselves up to really get rolling when Edelman returns.
The Patriots' Way of vetting players and evaluating skill positions is different from that of other NFL teams. When they preach, "Do Your Job," it's more of a collective "you." The goal is putting together the best complementary group in which Brady will have the most confidence.
Just when the puzzle pieces seem the most scattered, the Patriots tend to produce the prettiest picture.
