The Patriots will not go 16-0 in the 2019 NFL season after suffering their first loss in Week 9. They fell hard to the Ravens 37-20 in Baltimore on Sunday night. With that, the attention turns from how they dominated inferior opponents in the first eight games to how vulnerable they might be for a sustained tough stretch ahead.
As New England goes into its well-timed Week 10 bye a blemished 8-1, it has several weaknesses to examine, perhaps much to the delight of master motivator Bill Belichick and passing perfectionist Tom Brady.
The Ravens, who came in as the NFL's No. 2 offense in both total yards and scoring, provided a major wakeup call to a Patriots defense that seemed invincible At the same time, some of the frustrations Brady felt toward what surrounded him were heightened against an active playmaking defense that was able to take advantage.
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Even with New England still atop the entire AFC and ahead by 1 1/2 games over Baltimore (6-2), there's a sense of urgency to fix its problems. After the bye, the Patriots must deal with four more dangerous teams — the Eagles, Cowboys, Texans and Chiefs — in a row.
History says that when the Patriots hit such a low, it's usually not good for the rest of the league, because no team is better at making in-season adjustments when the only goal is reaching peak performance levels in the playoffs. Nevertheless, it's worth looking at four areas of concern for the month ahead:
Patriots weakness No. 1: Run defense
The Patriots went into Sunday's matchup ranked No. 4 against the run at 85.6 yards allowed per game, but that ranking was misleading. Because of the blowout nature of New England's victories this season, opponents haven't been in much position to stick with the run. The Pats were giving up 4.6 yards per carry, which put them in the bottom dozen in the NFL.
No team is better than Baltimore in running the ball. The Ravens were averaging 204 yards per game and then ripped the Patriots for 210 at 5.1 yards per attempt. Although the Patriots did contain Lamar Jackson on the ground (61 yards) despite two short touchdowns, the traditional rushing of Mark Ingram did plenty of damage — 7.7 yards per carry, including a 53-yard burst.
The Patriots are built to pressure quarterbacks with a versatile pass rush by committee, coupled with a deep secondary that possesses plenty of speed and quickness. They're not built to hold up when being smashed in the mouth by powerful blockers, facing teams with loaded personnel groupings or trying to defend against misdirection.
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The Eagles have found their groove on the ground with Jordan Howard and Miles Sanders, and the run game is a staple of the Cowboys with Ezekiel Elliott. The Texans and Chiefs have proved they can run the ball effectively with multiple backs when they commit to doing it. All those teams also have athletic quarterbacks who can add running support when necessary, and all those offensive lines operate better when going downhill. The Patriots need to become more sound and disciplined so they're at least not giving up chunk runs.
Patriots weakness No. 2: Linebacker coverage
From No. 1 shutdown cornerback Stephon Gilmore to the Brothers McCourty, the Patriots have the league's best man-to-man secondary. They also have good sub-package support in Jonathan Jones and J.C. Jackson, and savvy safeties Duron Harmon and Patrick Chung are around to clean up downfield. The Ravens did their best to avoid these matchups and thrived by working short and intermediate routes with their backs, tight ends and slot receivers.
Baltimore anticipated that New England, with its superb one-on-one coverage led by Gilmore, could take the deep ball away from Jackson, in particular to rookie speedster Marquise Brown. The Ravens used various formations and had seven different players catch passes from Jackson, with 10 in all targeted.
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The Eagles have Sanders and tight ends Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert, while the Cowboys can incorporate Elliott and backup running back Tony Pollard into their passing game. The Texans and Chiefs have myriad weapons to work underneath their deep threats.
The Patriots are good at taking away one big thing from an opponent's passing game, but they can expect their upcoming opponents to copy the Ravens with their own personnel. There will need to be better communication and assignment discipline on the second level, or else New England can be exposed in similar ways.
Patriots weakness No. 3: Offensive line and extra blocking
The Patriots desperately miss second-year left tackle Isaiah Wynn. Journeyman Marshall Newhouse has given what he can to protect Brady's blind side, but the position has become a liability. New England is fortunate that Brady can mask protection issues with his ability to sidestep the rush and get the ball out quickly, but the line's struggles with pressure can still manifest in key situations, as they did against Baltimore.
The bigger concern, though, is the run blocking. Losing center David Andrews, who held everything together, was the first blow. Not having ace lead fullback James Develin has been an underrated loss, especially for second-year power runner Sony Michel. Further, the tight ends have struggled with blocking. That's where Rob Gronkowski is missed the most; the team has consistently used 11 personnel (one back, one tight end, three wide receivers) with him not being available in the passing game.
The Patriots were the No. 5 rushing team in the NFL last season at 127.3 yards per game, and they averaged a respectable 4.3 yards per carry. This year, despite regularly playing with sizable leads prior to Week 9, they were down to No. 23 at 95.3 yards per game. Even worse, their 3.2 yards per carry after eight games were tied for last with the Jets and Bengals.
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The Patriots had some success on the ground against the Ravens, but it was misleading. They did their best running when the Ravens softened up their fronts to play more of a zone scheme. Playing from behind all night meant that they couldn't stick with what was working; the Pats had just 17 rushing attempts to Brady's 48 dropbacks.
Like the Ravens, the Eagles, Cowboys and Texans all entered Week 9 with top-12 run defenses. Wynn's expected return from turf toe in Week 11 vs. Dallas will help, but it's difficult to expect the run blocking to improve significantly right away.
The Patriots will be prepared to put more on Brady in the short passing game — the so-called extension of the running game — to compensate. That's probably the better way to beat their next four opponents anyway, based on the Patriots' current personnel strengths.
Patriots weakness No. 4: Limited downfield passing game
The Patriots are almost certain to have rookie first-round wide receiver N'Keal Harry in the mix for the first time after the bye. They need his size (6-4, 225 pounds) and straight-line speed on the outside after having moved on from Josh Gordon.
New England's aerial attack has become compressed without anyone who can take the top off defenses and scare them deep. The matchups Sunday weren't conducive to taking shots; Baltimore has a talented cornerback trio in Marlon Humphrey, Jimmy Smith and Marcus Peters, and they were backed by safety Earl Thomas, who was watching Brady from center field.
That forced Brady to rely on his go-to guys, wide receiver Julian Edelman and running back James White, to sneak behind the defense and be creative to produce plays of 20 to 30 yards. New slot receiver Mohamed Sanu has helped draw attention inside so that Edelman and White can be more effective outside.
Brady has been proficient over the years at high-volume dinking and dunking, but the sputtering running game is affecting the current offense's ability to sustain and finish long drives. With the Ravens dominating time of possession Sunday night, the Patriots simply didn't have time to score enough. Quick-strike ability would have been a potential game-changing asset.
Getting home runs from Harry and having Edelman play off Sanu more on the perimeter will help facilitate success with short passes and runs. Just as the Patriots were aggressive in trading a second-round pick to add Sanu's versatility and ability to create mismatches against smaller nickel backs, they also need to find out right away what Harry can offer as a vertical threat.
The Eagles, Cowboys, Texans and Chiefs have been most vulnerable in the latter area. All have give up their share of back-breaking big pass plays.
The Patriots' perfection was a mirage. The Ravens reminded the rest of New England's mightiest opponents how it can be attacked and beaten. Now it's up to Belichick and Brady, per usual, to go from taking one big step backward to again being two steps ahead.
