When the Titans (9-7) travel to play the Patriots (12-4) in New England for Saturday night's AFC wild-card playoff game (8:15 p.m. ET, CBS), it will feature two teams that had different second halves of the 2019 NFL season.
The Titans went 5-3 to surge into the No. 6 seed. The Patriots went 4-4 to drop from the 8-0 No. 1 to the No. 3 seed as AFC East champions. This is the first time in 10 years the Patrots have played in the wild-card round. The Titans, just two years ago, upset the Chiefs in Kansas City in the wild-card round.
Here's everything to know about betting on Patriots vs. Texans in the NFL playoffs, including updated odds, trends and our prediction for the AFC wild-card game.
MORE: Get the latest NFL odds & betting trends at Sports Insider
Patriots vs. Titans odds for NFL playoffs
- Spread: Patriots by 5
- Point total: 44
- Odds: Titans -110, Patriots -110
The Titans have been less than a touchdown underdog since the initial lines were released. The Titans are coming off a rout over a resting Texans team. The Patriots are coming off a shocking last-minute home upset loss to the Dolphins. There's reason to think the game will be decided by one possession.
Patriots vs. Titans all-time series
The Patriots lead the series 25-17-1. When the teams met in November 2018, the Titans crushed the Patriots 34-10 in Nashville. Before that game, the Patriots were riding a seven-game winning streak, including a 59-0 rout in 2009. When the Titans last won in New England, it was in 1993 — when they were still the Houston Oilers.
Three trends to know
— The Titans and the Patriots were both 8-7-1 against the spread during the regular season.
— The Tttans saw 10 of their 16 games go over the point total. The Patriots hit the over in only 7 of 16 games.
— The Titans are 5-2 straight up and against the spread in their past seven games. The Patriots are 2-3 straight up and 1-3-1 aganst the spread in their past five games.
Three things to watch
The Titans' "triplets"
Running back Derrick Henry delivered as the workhorse, winning the NFL's rushing title. But the two key players around him in the Titans' offense changed. Earlier in the season, they projected to be quarterback Marcus Mariota and wide receiver Corey Davis. Now at those same positions, it's Ryan Tannehill and rookie A.J. Brown. Henry's chunk runs have set up highly efficient downfield passing for Tannehill with Brown taking over the clear No. 1 target all over the field and touchdown machine.
The Patriots need to somehow keep both Henry and Brown from exploding. Their linebackers and veteran shutdown cornerback Stephon Gilmore will play the biggest roles in accomplishing that goal.
Tannehill vs. the Patriots
Tannehill has great experience facing Bill Belichick's defense from his Dolphins days. Tannehill is 4-7 against the Patriots. He's either been super-efficient or superbad against them in those games. He needs to tap into what worked best, and that's effective short-to-intermediate throwing.
Tom Brady and his receivers
The Titans' pass defense is very vulnerable. Former Patriot Malcolm Butler is on IR, leaving former Patriot Logan Ryan as the Titans' most reliable corner, but he's still at his best in the slot against three-receiver sets. Adoree' Jackson will return from his foot injury, but he's been burned plenty. Brady needs to exploit these favorable matchups and get the ball out quickly to Julian Edelman and others. Dinking and dunking is New England's best ball-control approach to keep the Titans' high-powered, balanced attack off the field.
Stat that matters
The Titans had the No. 3 rushing team in the NFL with Henry, averaging 138.9 yards per game at 5.0 yards per carry. The Patriots had the No. 6 rushing defense, allowing on average 95.5 yards per game at 4.2 yards per carry. The Patriots' pass defense topped the AFC, but they didn't get enough credit for containing teams on the ground. Slowing down Henry also means slowing down Tannehill in the play-action passing game.
Titans vs. Patriots prediction
The Patriots wouldn't lose at home in January, especially after losing there in Week 17 to end December, would they? There's been a rush to writing off the Patriots, even though they have a defense and running game built for the playoffs, much like last year. They can out-grind the Titans as Belichick will be one step ahead of his former star linebacker, Mike Vrabel, coaching on the other side.
Patriots 27, Titans 23
