The Patriots go into the 2020 NFL Draft with no definitive answer to replace Tom Brady as their starting quarterback. New England didn't acquire a veteran to take the helm, leaving second-year QB Jarrett Stidham on the top of the depth chart with re-signed Brian Hoyer to back him up.
Although there's a chance the Patriots simply will roll with Stidham, they are also sitting on 12 total draft picks that give them much flexibility in targeting a rookie QB between April 23 and April 25, through all seven rounds. Stidham has some promise, but it's hard to ignore the 2020 QB class is strong with upside.
The Patriots pick No. 23 in the first round but then don't pick again until three times in the third round, beginning with No. 87. Here's exploring every logical way they can land a QB, including the ultimate trade-up and the chances of each scenario happening.
NFL MOCK DRAFT: Patriots, Raiders, Colts all snag QBs
Joe Burrow, LSU
There are some who have likened Burrow's skill set and competitive mindset to Brady. Burrow has downplayed that, but there's no doubt he's a transcendent talent coming off the best passing season in college football history. The Bengals are close to locked into taking Burrow No. 1 overall, unless another team makes them an unbelievable, undeniable offer.
The Dolphins have the most capacity to do that with their three first-round picks. The Patriots have quantity but are limited in quality with only one first-rounder and no second-rounder. In essence, they would need to believe in Burrow enough as the "next Brady" to give up a massive haul, including key picks in 2021.
Chances of happening: 3 percent
Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama
Tagovailoa has seemed destined to go to the Dolphins at No. 5 or a little higher, but there's increasing concern about his health and durability, to the point rumors are swirling that Burrow and Justin Herbert will instead go to Cincinnati and Miami, and not necessarily in that order.
In that turn of events, the Chargers at No. 6 would have a clear shot at Tagovailoa as their next franchise QB. If not them, the Panthers (No. 7) and Jaguars (No. 9) could catch him falling in the top 10. Then it would be down to either the Broncos (No. 15) and Jaguars again (No. 20) as most realistic possibilities before the Patriots pick.
The Patriots have a shot at trading up to get Tua, but it becomes easier when they are sliding a few notches up from No. 23 vs. giving up what they need to jump double-digit spots. There's also an outside chance that if enough GMs are concerned among the QB-needy teams, Tagovailoa would fall into the Patriots' laps.
While Burrow is more of a pipe dream, drafting Tua has more reality to it after recent developments.
Chances of happening: 10 percent
Justin Herbert, Oregon
With concerns over Tagovailoa's health and the Bengals potentially balking at Burrow, Herbert has been a big beneficiary, at least according to the rumors. Do the Dolphins and Bengals really prefer him over the other two guys? Although Tagovailoa and Burrow have extremely high floors for the NFL, Herbert, with a possible higher ceiling, is more high-risk, high-reward.
Because of some fluctuating value in multiple ways, landing Herbert becomes a difficult trade-up move. But he's a great, smart kid who loved his meeting with the Patriots, with whom he left a good impression.
Tagovailoa will be the preferred target for a slight jump, but if he goes to the Dolphins at No. 5 and the Chargers pass on Herbert, the same scenarios can develop for the latter.
Chances of happening: 10 percent
NFL DRAFT BIG BOARD: Top 100 players in 2020 class
Jordan Love, Utah State
Assuming Burrow, Tagovailoa and Herbert go in some order to the Bengals, Dolphins and Chargers, Love is expected to be the fourth quarterback off the board. But he carries a lot more volatility along with his massive upside. With the Panthers, Jaguars and Broncos all having multiple big needs and having some QB solutions in place, they are less likely to be aggressive in getting a QB in the first round vs. catching a surprise faller.
In this case, unless the Raiders go maverick at No. 19 and grab Love, the Patriots should have a clear shot at drafting Love at No. 23 if they covet him enough. He represents a nice-sized (6-4, 225 pounds) QB with a big arm and mobility who can be developed well by Josh McDaniels.
Chances of happening: 15 percent
Jacob Eason, Washington
There are some scouts who think Eason should get back-end first-round consideration right there with Love; others see Eason as more of a big-armed pocket passer (6-6, 231 pounds) hurt by his limited mobility. If McDaniels and the Patriots see him as a Jameis Winston-type talent who can be harnessed to efficiently throw downfield off play-action in their system, he would come into play at No. 23.
It's more likely the Patriots would consider Eason if he falls deep into the second round or early third round, which gives them a shot to use No. 87 and another pick to move up to get him. That range would be about from No. 61, one spot before the Packers might consider Eason as a stash behind Aaron Rodgers, to No. 74, one spot before the Colts can catch him falling behind Philip Rivers.
There's also a chance Eason is available at No. 87, and that would almost make him a no-brainer pick.
Chances of happening: 15 percent
Jalen Hurts, Oklahoma
Hurts should last into the third round, but beyond the Jaguars at No. 73 and the Colts at No. 75, the biggest concern for him being off the board before No. 87 would be the Raiders, who have consecutive picks at No. 80 and No. 81. It's no secret Jon Gruden and Las Vegas have an affinity for Hurts as competition for Derek Carr and Marcus Mariota.
But if Hurts is their guy, the Patriots have No. 98, No. 100 and No. 125 that can easily help them move up to No. 79. Trading up in the third round for a QB is a lot easier for the Patriots than one in the first because they have no second.
Hurts has an athletic skill set with a big enough arm, but his greatest appeal to the Patriots would be his competitiveness, leadership and other intangible winning qualities to mentally mesh with Bill Belichick.
Chances of happening: 20 percent
Jake Fromm, Georgia
There should be no trade-up required to land Fromm should Eason and Hurts get drafted earlier to meet a couple of other teams' quarterback needs. Fromm represents a more accomplished, polished upgrade over Stidham.
Fromm also has the makeup to fit in with the Patriots. He played off the running game and defense very well in college. He is smart and experienced with great leadership skills, with the necessary decision-making to please Belichick and McDaniels.
New England could overlook some arm limitations and potentially see him as a more promising rookie version of Andy Dalton or Teddy Bridgewater.
Chances of happening: 20 percent
Anthony Gordon, Washington State
After the Patriots' run of four tight picks between No. 87 and No. 125, they have a fifth-rounder (No. 172), four sixth-rounders (Nos. 195, 204, 212, 213) and two seventh-rounders (Nos. 230 and 241). So if they don't get a quarterback in Round 3, waiting until Round 6 for a more developmental option makes sense.
Gordon is the latest product of the Mike Leach "Air Raid" offense, sharing some qualities with Gardner Minshew in being able to process the entire field with high volume. His accuracy and decision-making need work, but he has the smarts to absorb the Patriots' complex system well.
Chances of happening: 2 percent
MORE NFL DRAFT: The strangest moments in NFL Draft history
Brian Lewerke, Michigan State
Lewerke has late appeal, likely in Round 7, because of his physical tools coming out of a pro-style offense. He has the strong arm and mobility, but the intangibles and accuracy need to get back on the right track after some underachieving to close his college career.
Should the Patriots take Gordon or Lewerke (of the same QB line as Hoyer), it would signal the job to replace Brady is Stidham's to lose.
Chances of happening: 2 percent
Nate Stanley, Iowa
Here's your late-round wild card in the form of another pro-style Big Ten QB, in the tradition of Brady and Hoyer. Stanley has worked to improve his draft chances by trying to emulate Brady's passing mechanics. Belichick is also tight with Stanley's college coach, Kirk Ferentz.
At 6-4, 235 pounds, Stanley has flashed a big arm as a pocket passer with the ability to make all the throws accurately. He could use a lot of coaching to be consistent, but don't be surprised if Stanley gets his chance to compete as a grinding third-stringer should the Patriots go the stick-to-Stidham route.
Chances of happening: 3 percent
