The New England Patriots are coming off of one of their worst seasons in history, finishing tied for the second-worst record in the NFL and earning the third overall pick.
Despite having a ton of money this offseason, New England didn't add many veteran difference-makers. Their biggest moves came through the draft, selecting North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye in the first round and two wideouts (Ja'Lynn Polk and Javon Baker) in the second and fourth rounds respectively.
On top of these moves, the Patriots also swapped out head coach and de facto general manager Bill Belichick for Jerod Mayo and Eliot Wolf, who are now tasked with running the franchise for the foreseeable future.
With all of that, ESPN doesn't view New England as a contender in the 2024 season. Their Football Power Index (FPI) has them as the second-worst team again, just behind the Carolina Panthers.
The FPI gives the Patriots just a 1% chance of winning the AFC East and only a 2% chance of making the playoffs at all, considering their talent and the hardest schedule in the league in their mind.
According to ESPN, New England also has a 22% chance of securing the top pick in next year's draft and a 66% chance of landing in the top five.
None of these feel far off, even though they are just projections.
The Patriots can be better than they were last year and still end up with the same record or worse just because of who they'll play.
New England should only be worried about developing their young talent and deciding which players should be with the team for the next few years because they're probably not going to be playing any postseason games this season.
