Even with Tom Brady suspended for the Patriots’ first four games of the season, Las Vegas oddsmakers believe New England's most likely scenario behind Jimmy Garoppolo is a 3-1 start.
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The South Point sports book in Vegas has opened wagering on how many wins the Patriots will accumulate through their first four games, and "3 wins" is the favorite at 9/5 odds. Those odds imply a 35.71 percent chance of occurrence. Close behind is ‘2 wins’ at 2/1, while a bet on New England winning its first four games pays off at 5/1 odds.
Here’s a look at all the odds and implied probabilities for the prop.
| Number of wins | Odds | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 0 wins | 20/1 | 4.76% |
| 1 win | 6/1 | 14.29% |
| 2 wins | 2/1 | 33.33% |
| 3 wins | 9/5 | 35.71% |
| 4 wins | 5/1 | 16.67% |
New England’s win total at the South Point is unchanged since opening at 10.5, as book director Chris Andrews said he thought there was a good chance Brady’s suspension would hold up.
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The Patriots’ season opens on the road with a Sunday night game in Week 1 against the Cardinals. Their next three games, though, aren’t exactly daunting. In fact, they are all at home and New England is favored in each one.
Nevada sports book operator CG Technology has betting lines posted for virtually every game of the upcoming season. Take a look how the point spreads have moved for the games Brady will miss:
Week 1 at Arizona
Open line: Cardinals -1
After reinstatement of Brady’s suspension: Cardinals -4.5
Current line: Cardinals -5.5
Week 2 vs. Miami
Open line: Patriots -9
After reinstatement of Brady’s suspension: Patriots -6
Current line: Patriots -5
Week 3 vs. Houston
Open line: Patriots -7
After reinstatement of Brady’s suspension: Patriots -3
Current line: Patriots -3
Week 5 vs. Buffalo
Open line: Patriots -7
After reinstatement of Brady’s suspension: Patriots -3
Current line: Patriots -3