The Patriots are 2-5 for first time in 20 seasons. The last time they were this bad for Bill Belichick, they finished 5-11 in 2000 with a sixth-round rookie quarterback named Tom Brady on the bench. One year later, their six-time Super Bowl-winning dynasty was born.
The 2020 edition, the first New England team without Brady since, will be ending its 10-year reign as AFC East champion after losing at front-running Buffalo (6-2) by a field goal on Sunday. Belichick will still get the Patriots to play hard going forward, so don't confuse their four-game losing streak with "tanking." But let's just say Belichick shouldn't worry if his team keeps on losing.
Even as a strong, consistent playoff team, the Patriots had only one bottom line in mind — winning it all. Anything else was a disappointment. Likewise, it doesn't matter if the Patriots free fall to finish 2-14 or rally to respectability at 7-9. No playoffs is no playoffs.
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When Belichick was winning on demand, he said little about the process of getting there. But in an interview with his former offensive coordinator, Charlie Weis, on Sirius XM NFL Radio on Saturday, he laid out the exact reasons why New England was losing badly without Brady — lack of front-line talent and depth tied to salary-cap issues, veteran opt-outs due to COVID-19 and injuries.
Bill Belichick to @SiriusXMNFL: “This is kind of the year that we’ve taken to, I would say, adjust our cap from the spending that we’ve had in accumulation of prior years. We just haven’t been able to have the kind of depth on our roster that we’ve had in some other years.” pic.twitter.com/S5tHSu9qoU
— Mike Reiss (@MikeReiss) October 31, 2020
Bill Belichick to @SiriusXMNFL on how he assesses where the Patriots have been, and where they are now: pic.twitter.com/HZOiX5d6s8
— Mike Reiss (@MikeReiss) October 31, 2020
The Patriots weren't in position to go in a pricier direction at quarterback than a bargain flier on Cam Newton, which hasn't panned out. They also had no shot at a non-developmental rookie quarterback in the draft, which made Jarrett Stidham seem like a better alternative before Newton was signed.
Offensively, their line, backfield and wide receivers haven't been immune to the injury bug. Defensively, they saw their linebacker corps get hit hard in free agency and then Dont'a Hightower decided not to play this season.
Other than cornerback Stephon Gilmore — not nearly in his Defensive Player of the Year form from 2019 — they're relying on a mix of inexperienced youngsters and slowing-down veterans to make plays on that side of the ball. After Gilmore missed Week 8 with a late-developing knee injury, there was more speculation the Patriots would aggressively look to trade him before Tuesday's deadline, before the final year of his contract in 2021.
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When Belichick spoke to Weis, he was speaking just as much in his capacity as general manager as head coach. With the coaching results not going his way in 2020, it's only natural to already think about how to make his team better in 2021. For the Patriots, that requires greater draft capital — quality as well as quantity — and a lot of money under the cap with which to target key big-ticket free agents, like they did by signing Gilmore away from the Bills in 2017.
The Patriots are projected to have more than $60 million under the cap next year but there's uncertainty about the cap given the developments of this year. That's about triple the space they currently have. New England was caught between buying and selling in 2020, but it's more clear to Belichick the only way for his team to be a competitive contender on his watch again anytime soon is getting significantly worse.
That makes it easier to justify getting rid of hefty salaries of aging, fading players. Gilmore might be not be traded in the short term, but it would become a stronger possibility when the new league year opens in March.
They also could benefit from a top-10 pick in the first round of the draft — they currently set to pick No. 9 — and stockpiling with more significant selections that come from some of the cap-cutting moves.
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Belichick's tenure is based on adaptability and versatility. In the radio interview, Belichick admitted to having a lack of flexibility with the roster. The way the NFL is set up, when you have a franchise QB, you look to load up or reload, and when you don't, you look to gather as many valuable assets to rebuild.
There's no point to try to limp into the playoffs as a No. 7 seed and there's a lesser probability of that, anyway, with nine good teams above .500 ahead of the Patriots in the AFC. There's now a greater chance for the Patriots to be bad enough for Belichick to land a franchise cornerstone, quarterback or otherwise.
Given so many Patriots still on the roster are used to winning big, the 2020 season has been a tough adjustment, especially missing Brady's fiery competitive nature. Their makeup is to play as hard as possible for Belichick. But as they do that, he should expect more struggles and embrace the full evaluation mode as the latest challenge to his football genius.
The Patriots have been so successful by looking at and thinking about things in a different, advanced way than other teams. That's the same winning approach one should expect Belichick should take to losing.
