Patrick Mahomes has led the Chiefs to a home AFC championship game for a second consecutive NFL playoff run. The reigning league MVP magically erased a 24-point deficit against the Texans in Sunday's divisional playoff game with four second-quarter touchdown passes, quickly turning a big comeback into an eventual 51-31 blowout victory.
The Chiefs will now host the Titans with a berth in Super Bowl 54 on the line, a year after losing to the Patriots 37-31 in an overtime heartbreaker at Arrowhead Stadium, a game in which they also rallied. Kansas City has now won seven consecutive games as the AFC's No. 2 seed, but Tennessee is the opponent to which it last lost, 35-32 in Nashville in Week 10.
During that Nov. 10 meeting, the Titans were better in the fourth quarter, down to the late game-winning touchdown from Ryan Tannehill, but Mahomes, in his first game back from a knee injury, lit up the Titans' No. 24 pass defense for 446 yards and three touchdowns. The Titans countered with NFL rushing champion Derrick Henry burning the Chiefs' No. 26 run defense for 188 yards and two TDs.
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Mahomes ended up dropping 321 yards and five TDs on the Texans on Sunday, averaging 9.2 yards per attempt and rating 134.6 in the process. He also rushed for 53 yards. Henry ripped through the top-seeded Ravens for 195 rushing yards Saturday, following up the 182 he dropped in the wild-card upset of the Patriots.
Nothing has to give for either team as it tries to establish its primary offensive weapon, the league's most dangerous passer and runner, respectively. Tennessee's defense handled Tom Brady and Lamar Jackson with aplomb, but Mahomes is a next-level QB challenge for a fundamentally sound unit under coach Mike Vrabel and coordinator Dean Pees. Likewise, Kansas City, under Steve Spagnuolo, is less equipped to handle Henry personnel- and scheme-wise than New England or Baltimore were.
There's no need for the Chiefs to lose sleep over how to stop Henry this time, though. The only answer is that they need to empower Mahomes to throw early and often, to the point Henry is a limited factor for the Titans.
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The Titans didn't need to worry about the Patriots stretching the field on the perimeter in the passing game. They took away Jackson's comfort level in throwing short to intermediate routes in the middle of the field. Now, Tennessee will be forced to pick its poison between wide receiver Tyreek Hill and tight end Travis Kelce, and that's before it has to worry about the big-play ability of KC's other fast wideouts and the receiving of elusive running back Damien Williams.
Kelce destroyed the Texans with 10 catches, 134 yards and three second-quarter TDs to fuel the comeback. Backup Blake Bell had a tack-on score. Hill was quieter than usual (three catches, 41 yards) after muffing a punt return and taking a big shot early in the game.
Against the Titans' weak tight end defense in Week 10, Kelce caught seven passes for 75 yards and a TD. Hill went off with 11 catches, 157 yards and a TD. Tennessee didn't contain Williams and the complementary receivers, either. Keep in mind also that Mahomes' running wasn't a factor in that game (no attempts), given he was being protective of his healing knee.
The Chiefs' defense, meanwhile, should set a goal of making the Titans mostly one-dimensional with Tannehill as quickly as possible. The Titans like to put themselves in tight battles of attrition where they can be close or ahead in the second half, when Henry does his best work by (and most of his damage) as he wears down opponents. The Chiefs have cleaned up a lot of issues in the secondary since the Week 10 matchup, and they'll bring a more formidable pass rush against Tannehill in the rematch.
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There's every reason for the Chiefs to remain aggressive with Mahomes and not waste time trying to establish the run. They should use Williams only to finish drives, like they did against the Texans. The Chiefs aren't the ones who need to play keepaway and control time of possession.
In Week 10, the Chiefs lost late despite having the ball for nearly 38 minutes to 22 for Henry, Tannehill and the Titans' offense. The Chiefs, as they were forced to do early against the Texans, are at their best when they let Mahomes loose, on- and off-script, in a relentless effort to build big leads and put a defense that's much stronger against the pass in a favorable position.
Vrabel and the Titans get a ton of credit for exploiting the weaknesses of the Patriots' and Ravens' offenses. They will welcome every Chiefs designed traditional running play as a gift next Sunday, because the Titans don't have answers for their passing game.
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The Chiefs have an elite passing offense with a shaky run defense. The Titans have a vulnerable pass defense and a shaky passing game when Tannehill is not operating off Henry.
The Chiefs survived their slow start against the Texans, something they couldn't quite overcome against the Patriots in their previous playoff game. To make sure they finish the job of getting to a Super Bowl with Mahomes, they need to embrace letting him remain their best defense against Henry and the Titans.
