The Chiefs are going to the Super Bowl for the first time in 50 years, thanks to what Patrick Mahomes did (294 yards passing, three touchdowns, 8.4 yards per attempt, 120.4 rating; 53 rushing yards, TD) in the team's 35-24 win over the Titans on Sunday in the AFC championship game.
The Chiefs beat the Vikings in Super Bowl 4 for their one and only ring. Kansas City knows it will play either Green Bay — to whom it lost in Super Bowl 1 — or San Francisco in Super Bowl 54.
But which NFC champion is a better matchup for the Chiefs in Miami in two weeks? Here's an early breakdown of the postseason finale.
Chiefs vs. Packers
The teams played in Arrowhead Stadium on Oct. 27, with the Packers winning that Week 8 Sunday night contest 31-24. Aaron Rodgers threw two of his three touchdown passes in the fourth quarter to ensure victory for Green Bay. Rodgers finished the night with 305 yards passing at 9.2 yards per attempt.
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP: Kansas City rallies to reach Super Bowl
The big difference between then and now, however, is that Rodgers dueled veteran backup Matt Moore in that game and not Mahomes, who missed the matchup with a knee injury. The Chiefs' pass defense actually was better than the score and stats would indicate; it sacked Rodgers five times and and contained his receivers and tight ends.
Running back Aaron Jones (13 carries, 67 yards; seven catches, 159 yards, two TDs) was the player Kansas City couldn't stop. The Packers attacked the Chiefs' weakness at linebacker, something they were doing out of necessity with top wideout Davante Adams on the shelf with a toe injury.
The Chiefs will need to figure out how to contain Adams with cornerback Bashaud Breeland and others, but other than Adams and Jones, Kansas City matches up well with Green Bay. The Packers will need to get creative with their personnel to have more success than they had in the first meeting, and they'll need to be more successful with Mahomes back in the Chiefs' offensive lineup.
On the other side, the Packers' defense had trouble with the speed of wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman and, as they were against most tight ends this season, were overmatched by Travis Kelce. Week 8 was also when the Chiefs were operating with LeSean McCoy leading the backfield instead of Damien Williams, who scored in that game. Williams is now healthier and red-hot, having scored four touchdowns in two playoff games.
And, oh yeah, there's also the big arm and athleticism of Mahomes instead of Moore, who easily picked apart the Packers for most of the game.
The Chiefs were 14-point underdogs to the Packers in Super Bowl 1 and lost 35-10. They will be definite favorites should they face the Packers again in Super Bowl 54 and be well-positioned to live up to that status.
Chiefs vs. 49ers
When the Chiefs last played the 49ers, on Sept. 23, 2018, they won in Kansas City 38-27. That Week 3 matchup also was when quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo tore his ACL late in the fourth quarter after running to the sideline in the red zone. The injury ended his second season with San Francisco.
Garoppolo threw for 251 yards and two touchdowns before he went down, averaging 8.4 yards per attempt and rating a stellar 114.7. He was facing a much different defense, Bob Sutton's 3-4, than the one the Chiefs operate now, Steve Spagnuolo's base 4-3, but Kansas City couldn't stop two fundamentals of Kyle Shanahan's offense — a deep, versatile running game and tight end George Kittle in the passing game.
Since last season, the 49ers have added two key wide receivers, rookie Deebo Samuel and veteran Emmanuel Sanders, who was a Chiefs killer while with the Broncos. They also have running backs Tevin Coleman and Raheem Mostert in prominent scrimmage backfield roles to cause problems for the Chiefs' linebackers and safeties.
Mahomes (314 yards, three TDs, 8.4 yards per attempt, 115.5 rating) had to be equally on point for the Chiefs to pull away. The 49ers contained Kareem Hunt in the running game and limited the damage Hill caused. Kelce, however, was his dominant self (eight catches,104 yards) in outproducing Kittle.
The 49ers' 4-3 defense is much better now on every level, with Sporting News Rookie of the Year Nick Bosa and former Chief Dee Ford at the ends. The unit is much better at linebacker, too, with Kwon Alexander and Dre Greenlaw, and they have a healthy Jaquiski Tartt at safety to boost a much-improved secondary beyond shutdown cornerback Richard Sherman.
All of that adds up to the Chiefs scoring less and the 49ers scoring more in the rematch. The Chiefs had the No. 5 scoring offense in the NFL (28.2 points per game) with Mahomes in 2019, but the 49ers were better with Garoppolo, at No. 3 (29.9 points per game). The 49ers were also No. 8 in scoring defense (allowing 19.4 points per game), while the Chiefs were a notch ahead at No. 7 (allowing 19.3 points per game).
While the Chiefs are much better on paper vs. the Packers, they're slightly worse than the 49ers. San Francisco's offense and defense have more all-around talent and fewer flaws. The Packers have far overachieved.
Without question, the Chiefs want a Super Bowl 1 rematch with the Packers over Mahomes trying to outscore the 49ers.
