The Green Bay Packers went 13-3 in Matt LaFleur's first season to win the NFC North. But after overachieving in 2019, their regression back to reality will lead to missing the NFL playoffs in 2020.
Sporting News is picking the Packers to slide by four games and finish at 9-7, just missing the postseason as the team loses the tiebreaker — to the reigning NFC champion 49ers — for the seventh and final spot in the new, expanded NFC field.
The conference is loaded with Super Bowl contenders. Seven teams — the 49ers, Buccaneers, Saints, Eagles, Cowboys, Seahawks and the division rival Vikings — all have better Las Vegas odds to win it all than the Packers this season.
Why is Green Bay the odd team out in that company, with Tampa Bay and Dallas being the two teams crashing the 2019 field instead? The Packers aren't improved from last season and face.a tougher schedule this season.
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On paper, based on the combined '19 winning percentage of their '20 opponents, the Packers are again in the middle of the pack. But consider they play the Vikings, Saints, Buccaneers, Texans and 49ers all on the road in the first half of the season. When counting Minnesota twice overall, seven of the 16 games are against teams that just made the playoffs.
It's also unlikely the Packers sweep division play again to go 6-0. They also barely outscored their opponents in 2019, with only a 63-point differential. They also took advantage of playing the weak NFC East, a benefit they won't have again, trading it for the much tougher NFC South. When examining their initial results with LaFleur, they were much closer to a 9-7 team than a 13-3 one.
Their rankings in key categories overall also suggest a team made for the muddled middle. The Packers had the No. 15 rushing offense and No. 19 passing offense. They also return the No. 14 pass defense and No. 24 run defense. They were tied for fourth with the Vikings with 17 interceptions but were only 16th in sacks.
As for Aaron Rodgers, the Packers didn't draft him wide receiver help and the only veteran they signed, Devin Funchess, opted out. Right tackle is now a weakness with Rick Wagner replacing long-time stalwart Bryan Bulaga.
For defensive coordinator Mike Pettine, the front seven is a concern. The Packers remain weak on the edges of the front three. With Blake Martinez leaving in free agency, they are limited at inside linebacker. The back-end playmaking will be hard to duplicate with the pass rush staying at the same level.
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Rodgers can do only so much as he is set to turn 37 in November. He's still a strong passer, but his yards per attempt and efficiency are hampered by continued concerns about his supporting cast.
Aaron Jones did get help in the rushing attack with rookie A.J. Dillon. The Packers were a 60-percent passing team last season and that plan won't make sense with LaFleur again. They should be even more run-orietned to take pressure off Rodgers, instead of leaning on him.
That was a big change in 2019. Rodgers has been the same QB going on three seasons. He's missed Jordy Nelson and needs to lean heavily on Davante Adams. The Packers are hoping Allen Lazard and Jace Sternberger give him two more reliable options to the point dinks and dunks to Jones and Jamaal Williams aren't the biggest non-Adams staple of the passing game.
There are few more answers to be sought in Green Bay and in his second year, more opponents will be wise to LaFleur's scheming. At many positions, what the Packers have pales in relation to the more heavyweight NFC contenders.
LaFleur got the Packers to go back to grinding well and and got by with Rodgers as more of the complementary element than the main one. That formula, with limited explosiveness in the passing game, is hard to duplicate at the same high level.
The Vikings will take back the division while the Packers go back to a crossroads with Rodgers, even with him doing his best to pave them forward. Green Bay has spent about a decade trying to win a Super Bowl with him again, but going back to not winning enough to get to the playoffs with him will only push Green Bay toward the looming QB change of Jordan Love.
