Packers playoff picture: Green Bay's updated NFC wild-card chances for Week 18

Vinnie Iyer

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Packers playoff picture: Green Bay's updated NFC wild-card chances for Week 18 image

The Packers (8-8) go into Week 18 of the 2022 NFL season positioned as the No. 9 team in the NFC, two spots out of becoming the third wild-card team.

They are favored at home against the NFC North division rival Lions (also 8-8) on Sunday night.

Here's breaking down what needs to happen for Green Bay to earn the No. 7 seed and its chances of making the playoffs:

MORE: Updated NFL playoff picture for Week 18

Packers make the playoffs if ... 

They win. The Packers would be 9-8 and the Lions would fall to 8-9. If the Seahawks lose to or tie the Rams to be 8-9 or 8-8-1, the Packers would be ahead of them, too and earn the wild-card spot outright.

If the Seahawks win to get to 9-8, the Packers would get into the playoffs based by holding the conference-record tiebreaker over the Seahawks (7-5 vs. 6-6).

Packers miss the playoffs if ... 

They lose. This would drop the Packers to 8-9 and either the Lions at 9-8 or the Seahawks at 9-8 would make the playoffs ahead of them.

They tie. The Packers cannot get into the playoffs at 8-8-1. Either the Lions would get in ahead of them at 8-8-1 for having the head-to-head tiebreaker (1-0-1), or the Seahawks would earn the wild-card spot over both teams at 8-8-1 or 9-8.

MORE: NFL playoffs' best, worst seeding scenarios for every team

Packers' updated playoff chances

The Packers don't need help to make the playoffs so everything comes down to beating the Lions at Lambeau Field. They should be considered about 60 percent favorites in that home game, putting their playoff chances at that same number.

Vinnie Iyer

Vinnie Iyer Photo

Vinnie Iyer, has been with TSN since 1999, not long after graduating from Northwestern University’s Medill School of Journalism. He has produced NFL content for more than 20 years, turning his attention to full-time writing in 2007. A native of St. Louis, Mo. but now a long-time resident of Charlotte, N.C. Vinnie’s top two professional sports teams are Cardinals and Blues, but he also carries purple pride for all things Northwestern Wildcats. He covers every aspect of the NFL for TSN including player evaluations, gambling and fantasy football, where he is a key contributor. Vinnie represents TSN as host of the “Locked On Fantasy Football” podcast on the Locked On network. Over his many years at TSN, he’s also written about MLB, NBA, NASCAR, college football, tennis, horse racing, film and television. His can’t-miss program remains “Jeopardy!”, where he was once a three-day champion and he is still avid about crossword puzzles and trivia games. When not watching sports or his favorite game show, Vinnie is probably watching a DC, Marvel or Star Wars-related TV or movie.