If you told anyone the Packers had two shots at scoring inside the 10-yard line in the fourth quarter at Lambeau Field with Aaron Rodgers as their quarterback, they would have assumed the Packers won the game.
But that wasn't the case in Thursday's 34-27 loss to the Eagles. First, it was four plays from the 1, all incomplete passes, beginning and ending with short right misses to tight end Jimmy Graham, and a turnover on downs. Finally, it was two plays from the 7 — one 4-yard run and a rare Rodgers goal-line interception off a tipped pass.
There has been a lot of finger-pointing to the play-calling by coach Matt LaFleur on the former series for letting Rodgers continue to throw the ball and not handing off once to running back Aaron Jones, who scored from three yards out early in the game. But that also came on a night when LaFleur got praise for letting Rodgers throw 53 times overall for 422 yards to exploit a weak Eagles pass defense, rather than force rushing balance against a mighty Eagles run defense.
MORE: Matt LaFleur doesn't 'know what pass interference is' after 3 controversial calls
"I felt good about all four calls," Rodgers said of the Packers' penultimate pointless possession. "We had a fade to Jimmy, we had a keeper that they play, we had an RPO, and then we had the fourth-down call. We just didn't quite execute, but it hurts. The way they were stopping the run we felt good about those four calls and I liked the calls."
There was a notable absence, however, on both potential game-tying red zone attempts: wide receiver Davante Adams, who lit up the Eagles in catching 10 of 15 targets for 180 yards, was out of the game, dealing with painful turf toe.
Would an available Adams have made a difference?
"Who knows, right?" LaFleur siad. "You really don't know."
To their credit, Rodgers and LaFleur didn't blame not having Adams for how the game ended. They also were all about "next man up" in those tight red zone passing situations, counting on Graham especially to make a play.
But the reality is the Packers need to hope Adams recovers quickly from a tricky injury for a receiver — starting with Week 5's monumental game at the Cowboys — because not having him leaves no true go-to guy on the field for Rodgers.
In one of the biggest statistical anomalies anywhere in the NFL this early season, Adams has gone four games without scoring. Over the past three seasons, no receiver in the league has been more reliable in delivering short touchdowns.
Going into the season, Adams had posted 35 TDs in his past 45 regular-season games. In 2016, seven of his 12 TDs came in the red zone, five inside the 10. In 2017, seven of his 10 TDs came inside the red zone, three inside the 10.
IYER: Aaron Rodgers' big passing night vs. Eagles exposes Packers' real problem
Last season, Adams took it to a whole new level of red zone dependence from Rodgers, producing 12 of his 13 TDs there, with six coming inside the 10.
There's two ways to look at it. The Packers shouldn't have called for four passes because they didn't have Adams on the field. Or, with no Adams on the field, it was easier for the Eagles to think stuffing Jones first and weren't too worried about Graham.
If this were Graham with the Seahawks in 2017, or early in his career with the Saints, this would be have fine, and the Packers are playing into overtime. But his skills have faded and it's clear it's been hard for him to establish the same short red zone chemistry with Rodgers that he had with Russell Wilson, or that Rodgers has with Adams.
Big slot receiver Geronimo Allison and No. 2 perimeter wideout Marquez Valdes-Scantling are more big-play threats than short-situation drive finishers. As good as Jones has been popping into the end zone on short runs, they all have come when Adams was an option to draw defensive attention.
Week 4 NFL PICKS:
Against the spread | Straight-up picks
The Packers also settled for two field goals in the red zone in the second quarter. Why? Simply, Rodgers and Adams couldn't quite connect on two third-down plays.
As Rodgers admitted after the game, he was looking to Adams early and often during the game because of the matchup. When he needed him most, however, it threw off what Rodgers and LaFleur could accomplish with the rest of the personnel and scheme, especially with limited room to operate.
The Cowboys' defense is good at bending but not breaking to limit damage in the red zone.
Should Adams not suit up next weekend, it will be difficult to expect better goal-to-go results from the Packers in that game — and for however long he's out.
