On the morning of the final Sunday of the 2023 NFL regular season, Christian McCaffrey sits as a -375 favorite on Sports Interaction to win AP Offensive Player of the Year over Tyreek Hill (+275). That translates to a win probability of just under 80 percent for CMC and a little over 25 percent for 'Reek. To the casual bettors contemplating a value bet on Hill, we're here to warn you: don't throw your money away, because this race has basically already been decided.
If Sports Interaction and all the other major North American sportsbooks thought Hill had a shot to win OPOY, his odds would be shorter and the race in general would be much tighter. The fact of the matter is, CMC has been more widely discussed as a legitimate MVP candidate, the Niners own the best record in their conference, and McCaffrey hasn't missed one meaningful game all season (he will sit in Week 18 with a "calf injury" (wink wink), but more likely because San Francisco already secured the No. 1 seed in the NFC).
If Hill never hurt his ankle in Week 14 — knocking him out of Miami's game versus Tennessee and sidelining him for the Dolphins' Week 15 tilt against the Jets — this race might be more like a coin-flip. Not long ago, 'Reek was not just on track to break Calvin Johnson's single-season NFL-record of 1,964 receiving yards — he was on pace to crack 2,000 yards in a season. Either of those feats would have almost assuredly put him in the driver's seat to win Offensive Player of the Year.
But just like football is a game of inches, awards races can swing one way or the other in one week flat. Hill now needs 248 yards to break Megatron's record and 283 to break the two-century mark. Even for the Cheetah — who opened the regular season with an 11-catch, 215-yard, and two-touchdown performance against the Chargers — those are pretty tall orders.
Hill hasn't even broken 100 receiving yards in a game since Week 13 in Washington, one week before his ankle injury. He still leads the NFL with 114.5 receiving yards per game, 14.7 yards per touch, and 1,717 receiving yards, but his overall resumé on the year pales in comparison to McCaffrey's total body of work.
CMC's season has been a MasterClass of offensive dominance. He leads the NFL in rushing yards (1,459), yards from scrimmage (2,023), and touchdowns (21). He has paced the entire league in both rushing attempts (272) and total touches (339). It's not quite as incredible a season as his 2019 season with Carolina, when he put up 1,387 yards on the ground and 1,005 yards through the air, but it's pretty damn close.
CMC finished third in Offensive Player of the Year voting that season, which many believe was a grave injustice. But the Panthers went 5-11 that season! Awards for excellence are rarely bestowed upon veteran players whose teams finished six games below .500. Luckily for CMC this year, his 49ers are seven games above .500 and arguably the best team top-to-bottom in football.
It also helps McCaffrey's case that the competitive field around him this season is pretty weak. Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase both battled injuries off and on throughout the second half of the season. Recent rushing champs Josh Jacobs, Jonathan Taylor, and Derrick Henry all dealt with injuries of their own, as did 2021 OPOY Cooper Kupp and 2019 winner Michael Thomas. And so many starting quarterbacks got hurt this season that the NFL broke a record for most QBs to start under center in a single season (66! Sporting News ranked them all here).
The stars have aligned for McCaffrey, who remains the best superstar in the league. It's a huge win for the running back position as a whole, as stud backs have felt a silent war being waged against them by NFL big-wigs for a couple years now. General managers' collective valuation of running backs may continue to dwindle over the next few years, but one sentiment should remain indisputable: Christian McCaffrey is the most valuable non-quarterback in the NFL, and he will be rewarded appropriately as Offensive Player of the Year at the close of the season.
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