The Colts will miss Andrew Luck, but not to the point where they will miss out on winning the AFC South and returning to the playoffs as expected in 2019.
Not long after the four-time Pro Bowl quarterback and reigning NFL comeback player of the year announced his shocking decision to retire at age 29 on Saturday night, Indianapolis quickly went from the heavy division favorite in sportsbooks to having the worst odds behind Houston, Jacksonville and Tennessee.
For most teams, having to turn to a backup QB so close to the regular season indeed spells last-place doom. But the Colts aren't most teams.
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Luck did have an MVP-caliber campaign last season as his team went 10-6 to earn a wild-card spot in the playoffs. But the Colts did not win nine of their final 10 regular-season games and beat the Texans to advance to the divisional round of the postseason just because they were a one-man gang.
Thanks to coach Frank Reich and his staff getting the most out of the upgraded talent general manager Chris Ballard provided in a successful personnel overhaul, Indianapolis was among the teams carrying the most momentum going into 2019.
The Colts are still loaded everywhere on a roster that better overall in the offseason. Luck's retirement doesn't change the fact that Indianapolis has arguably the league's best offensive line, is deep with offensive skill players, features many playmakers in its defensive front seven and will show extra pop in its secondary.
The Colts also have one of the NFL's best backup QBs in Jacoby Brissett, who gained plenty of valuable starting experience while replacing a shoulder-shelved Luck for 15 games in 2017.
Based on Brissett's mediocre play that season, plus the fact that Indianapolis finished 30th in scoring offense, some think the team is headed to a major drop-off. But those two years were a long time ago, when Brissett didn't have close to the same support system he has now.
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Last year, behind Luck and under Reich, Brissett grew and developed in a superior, QB-friendly scheme. He made the transition from raw youngster to respected veteran in one of the league's best locker-room environments.
No wonder Ballard, who made the move with the Patriots to acquire Brissett right before the 2017 season, has greater faith in him now.
"We’re young, good on both fronts, some good young skill players and a good young quarterback in Jacoby Brissett,” the GM told reporters. “We’re not gonna ask Jacoby Brissett to be Andrew Luck. Andrew Luck was a unique, unique player, but Jacoby Brissett is a winning football player in this league. Jacoby Brissett is a rare, rare leader."
The third element when it comes to believing in the Colts is Reich, the same offensive leader who helped the Eagles survive the late-season loss of Carson Wentz in 2017 and still won the Super Bowl with Nick Foles.
When a coach has that recent memory and was responsible for much of the seamless execution, his "next man up" encouragement is a powerful mantra, not just cliche lip service.
Remember when Reich was ripped for going for the win in overtime last season? That was the game in which he put his first big stamp on his new team, and it paid off big-time later. Consider this his latest seminal moment with the Colts.
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The last part of this equation is the Colts' strengths compared to the weaknesses of the rest of the AFC South.
The Texans have a terrible offensive line, which gives them major concerns about protecting Deshaun Watson and giving him a good complementary running game without the services of Lamar Miller. And they are about to move a key part of their defense with a Jadeveon Clowney trade looming.
The Jaguars have Foles to give them a legitimate passing game and more offensive optimism with a healthy, all-in Leonard Fournette. But color us skeptical about their ceiling there with John DeFilippo and Doug Marrone. And as good as their defense is in several spots, nose tackle, linebacker and safety are holes.
The Titans don't know what kind of contract season they will get from Marcus Mariota after losing yet another offensive coordinator and not having left tackle Taylor Lewan for a quarter of the season. Their defense is about on par with the Jaguars, but the Colts weren't far behind both overall in 2018, and they are in position to pass their rivals defensively.
Through 10 players on offense, their defense and their special teams, the Colts have the fewest concerns. With no Luck, Watson now gives the Texans the best QB in the division, but that's not enough.
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With Luck, the Colts might have run away with the division. Now it just might be a littler closer. Before Luck's retirement, Sporting News picked Indianapolis to go 11-5 and win the division by three games over an 8-8 Houston. It's hard to believe the Colts won't at least be a relatively modest 10-6 again, because now they won't be figuring out how to win with Reich early in the season.
Luck's retirement doesn't change the fact that the Patriots and Chiefs are better AFC title and Super Bowl contenders. In the big conference picture, this might put Indianapolis behind whoever wins the AFC North, but it still will get its chance to get hot in the postseason.
The Colts have positioned themselves to have a high floor as a well-rounded team in 2019. Don't be surprised, however, if they discover how reach for their ceiling with Reich, Brissett and the rest of their roster.
