There seems to be no such thing as a heavy favorite in the 2024 NFL season. Underdogs of +5.5 or greater went into Week 5 17-4-1 against the spread, and the biggest favorites in Weeks 1, 2, 3 all lost. This past weekend was no different, as the 49ers lost to the Cardinals and the Seahawks fell to the Giants. Utter carnage for chalk bettors.
Most active survivor pools at this point are either pools that allow multiple strikes or pools that started brand new midway through the season. Luckily for all of us, those types of contests exist! We blundered last week with our Seattle pick, after a strong early-season run of hits.
MORE NFL BETTING: Week 6 odds, lines
This column has steered readers away from the Bengals in Week 1 and 3 (vs. Pats, vs. Commanders...both Ls). It also guided you away from the Ravens vs. the Raiders in Week 2, and highlighted the 49ers vs. the Patriots as the priority pick in Week 4. So, there's that.
Our strategies have been a mixture of early-week gut calls and data analysis we get from our friends at PoolGenius, the No. 1 resource for NFL survivor pool strategies and NFL survivor pool tips.
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Let's take a closer look at Week 6's top teams, breaking down which options might be better choices for this weekend and which ones might be best served for later on down the line.
The Sporting News has teamed up with PoolGenius this season to give you the best weekly advice on survivor pools. PoolGenius subscribers have reported over $6 million in NFL survivor pool winnings.
NFL most popular Week 6 survivor picks
It's pretty easy to tell which picks will be the most popular ahead of a new NFL week. Lopsided moneylines and spreads often dictate survivor-pool action — attacking the opponent perceived as the weakest is a tale as old as time.
Here are the most heavily favored teams for Week 6, along with their PoolGenius win probability odds:
| Team | Opponent | Spread | Line | PG odds |
| Eagles | vs. Browns | -8.5 | -450 | 78% |
| Texans | at Patriots | -7.0 | -305 | 72% |
| Ravens | vs. Commanders | -6.5 | -292 | 72% |
| Falcons | at Panthers | -5.5 | -240 | 67% |
| Packers | vs. Cardinals | -5.0 | -240 | 69% |
| Bengals | at Giants | -3.5 | -190 | 63% |
The Eagles (vs. Browns), Texans (vs. Commanders), and Ravens (vs. Commanders) are the only three teams in the NFL favored by a touchdown or more this week.
Houston could be a volatile pick going into Foxboro without top receiver Nico Collins, while many would view Jayden Daniels and the Commanders as a risky team to bet against right now. So, which squad should we lock in?
Week 6 survivor pools: Eagles highlight the optimal picks
The Eagles serve as the No. 1 heavy favorite, and it's tough to argue with Pool Genius on their 78-percent win probability. Nick Sirianni's team is coming off a bye, at home, potentially getting A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith back, and facing the most dysfunctional offense in the NFL. Philly's -450 odds translate to a win probability of nearly 82 percent.
The Panthers have been much more competitive since Andy Dalton took over for struggling second-year QB Bryce Young, but it's still hard to see Kirk Cousins and the Falcons losing to Carolina. The Packers at home vs. Arizona also feels pretty safe, even after Kyler Murray led the Cards past the 49ers.
If you don't have the Eagles, Falcons, or Packers available, consider Joe Burrow and the Bengals over the Giants in the Meadowlands. Joey B quietly has a 72-percent completion rate, 12 TDs, and just two picks — and he almost led Cincy past the high-flying Ravens in Week 5.
The Bengals sure feel like they're about to go on a run, and we're not buying in on the Giants ripping off two massive upsets in a row. When in doubt, go with the squad that has the playmakers. Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins fit the bill.
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