The first month of the 2024 NFL campaign proved to be one of the trickier early-season stretches for bettors in recent memory. Heavy favorites fell to underdogs left and right, high-profile injuries seemed more prevalent than ever, and primetime trends started to regress. Still, SN's weekly best bets column came out of Week 5 upright, with heads held high.
On the season, this column has gone 37-27-1 with best bet advice.
MORE NFL: Week 6 odds, lines | Power rankings
We grind all week, from the opening lines to the final bell before kickoff, so we can unveil the top-value wagers and can't-miss player props of the upcoming weekend. So, be sure to check in early and often ahead of the Week 6 slate. Moneylines, spreads, and over/unders will mostly be locked in by Monday and Tuesday, but props will trickle in as the week progresses.
Here's the best moneyline, spread, over/under and player prop bets on BetMGM and Caesars for Week 6 of the 2024 NFL season. Good luck, have fun, and enjoy the ride.
JUMP TO: Spreads | Moneylines | Over/under | Player props
NFL Week 6 Best Bets: Against the spread (ATS)
All odds courtesy of BetMGM and Caesars Sportsbook.
Ravens -6.5 vs. Commanders (-105 on Caesars)
Don't get us wrong — we love Jayden Daniels and all the wins he and the Commanders have brought us through the first five weeks of his NFL career. But these Ravens are on another stratosphere here, and they're about to show Washington what a true Super Bowl contender looks like.
Playing against Deshaun Watson and the Browns one week before playing against the Ravens is like practicing against the freshman team to prepare for a varsity state championship. Cleveland has nothing figured out right now, while John Harbaugh's squad looks like it's clicking on all cylinders.
You don't go into Baltimore and get away with two turnovers like Washington did against the Browns. You also can't bank on Daniels rushing for 82 yards against Kyle Hamilton and the Ravens defense. The rookie better practice his sliding now, because Zach Orr's unit hits hard.
And who on the Commanders will slow down Derrick Henry? They allowed Jerome Ford and D'Onta Foreman to accumulate 91 combined yards on just 18 carries on Sunday — Henry might finish Week 6 with 250 yards. Stray from the crowd of 'manders bettors and back the home faves.
SCORE PREDICTION: Ravens 27, Commanders 19
Other Week 6 spreads worth a look: Texans -6.5 at Patriots (-130 on BetMGM); Eagles -8.5 vs. Browns (-110 on BetMGM and Caesars)
NFL Week 6 Best Bets: Moneyline
Broncos +125 vs. Chargers (BetMGM)
Newsflash: the Broncos might be the best defense in the NFL. They have surrendered an average of under 12 points per game over the past three weeks, and they've forced six turnovers over the past two. Patrick Surtain II is my dark-horse Defensive Player of the Year pick.
Even better, the momentum of this Denver D is translating to confidence on the offensive side of the ball. Rookie Bo Nix looks better each week, and he's starting to develop real chemistry with Courtland Sutton and the other Broncos receivers.
Combine those factors with Javonte Williams finally getting going out of the backfield, and we're talking about a sneaky good Sean Payton team. Everyone will be on Jim Harbaugh's Chargers here, but they might not have enough offensive threats to challenge this Denver D. The Bolts have been held to 10 points each of their past two games. Broncos bettors, let's ride.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Broncos 23, Chargers 16
Other Week 6 moneylines to consider: Seahawks +140 vs. 49ers (-110 on Caesars); Jaguars +115 at Bears (Caesars); Mini-parlay: Steelers ML at Raiders and total UNDER 48.5 (-105 on BetMGM)
NFL Week 6 Best Bets: Over/under totals
Buccaneers at Saints: UNDER 45.5 (-110 on BetMGM) or Bucs team UNDER (shop around)
The initial thought from most bettors when they see this divisional matchup: points! Lots and lots of points! But that's not always the case. Heck, we might see more fights between Bucs wideout Mike Evans and Saints cornerback Marshon Lattimore than we see touchdowns!
Look at the final score of the past five meetings between these squads:
- 12/31/2024 (@TB): Saints 23, Bucs 13
- 10/01/2023 (@NO): Bucs 26, Saints 9
- 12/05/2022 (@TB): Bucs 17, Saints 16
- 09/18/2022 (@NO): Bucs 20, Saints 10
- 12/19/2021 (@TB): Saints 9, Bucs 0
That's an average of 28.6 total points per game, people. And many would say the Saints defense as currently constituted is better than it has been in years. New Orleans has surrendered an average of 10.8 points per game over its past five games at the Superdome. Listen to the trends here.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Saints 23, Bucs 20
Other strong Week 6 over/under bets: Lions at Cowboys: UNDER 52.5 (-110 on BetMGM); Cardinals at Packers: UNDER 49.5 (-110 on Caesars and BetMGM)
NFL Week 6 Best Bets: Top player props & game props
As always, player and game props will be added once the sportsbooks post them. Props typically drop by Tuesday evening/Wednesday morning. Be sure to check back!
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