The first two weeks of the NFL regular season are behind us and it's on to Week 3.
There have been a few surprises, but generally, results have been close to projected. The majority of teams that AccuScore predicted to reach the NFL playoffs before the season are still on track, but there are a few slipping out of the race already.
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Each week, AccuScore will update its 2017 NFL postseason forecast by simulating the remainder of the NFL season 10,000 times to predict win totals, division winners and probabilities of reaching the playoffs on the road to Super Bowl 52. Let’s look at how the probabilities and Vegas odds of making the NFL playoffs have changed entering Week 3.
AccuScore's odds to make NFL playoffs
Probability vs. weekly % change
| New England Patriots | 99% | 0% |
| Green Bay Packers | 96% | -2% |
| Denver Broncos | 89% | 0% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 88% | -4% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 82% | 0% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 82% | 7% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 78% | 3% |
| Baltimore Ravens | 68% | 3% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 66% | 20% |
| Tennessee Titans | 65% | 27% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 61% | 6% |
| Oakland Raiders | 56% | 6% |
| Arizona Cardinals | 41% | 8% |
| New York Giants | 37% | -24% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 32% | -17% |
| Carolina Panthers | 25% | 2% |
| Detroit Lions | 23% | 10% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 22% | -10% |
| New Orleans Saints | 22% | -6% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 21% | -6% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 11% | -19% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 11% | 3% |
| Washington Redskins | 9% | 3% |
| Miami Dolphins | 4% | 2% |
| L.A. Rams | 4% | -2% |
| Buffalo Bills | 3% | -3% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 2% | 1% |
| L.A. Chargers | 1% | -1% |
| Houston Texans | 1% | -12% |
| Chicago Bears | 0% | 0% |
| Cleveland Browns | 0% | 0% |
| New York Jets | 0% | -1% |
NFL playoff odds changes
Biggest improvements:
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Tennessee Titans +27%: After a Week 1 home loss to Oakland, the Titans went to Jacksonville and earned a convincing victory against its division rival. As the AFC South is projected to be very tight, games between division rivals carry greater importance to the postseason race, even early in the season.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers +20%: This number is a bit inflated as the Buccaneers’ Week 1 bye dropped their probability. Now Tampa Bay’s playoff probabilities are back to the “normal” levels, with the Falcons as the primary opponents for the NFC South title.
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Detroit Lions +10%: A convincing Monday Night Football win against the Giants boosted the Lions’ probabilities. The Giants are still predicted to have a higher chance to reach the playoffs, but if these teams are tied for a wild card, the Week 2 win could carry greater importance. Green Bay is still the team to beat in the NFC North, but the next two games against Atlanta and Minnesota will help confirm if the Lions have a legitimate shot to derail the Packers’ run for another division championship.
Biggest drops:
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N.Y. Giants -24%: A home loss on national television against an underdog is never good. This time, it leaves the Giants 0-2 and the preseason projection for a wild card spot is quickly vanishing. Right now, it looks like Arizona is in line for that final NFC playoff spot.
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Cincinnati Bengals -19%: Two home losses hurt, especially the second one against a mediocre Houston team. The Bengals were not predicted to be in the playoffs when the season started, but now it looks like two tough teams in their division -- the Steelers and Ravens -- plus a trio of potential playoff teams in the AFC West will make it nearly impossible for the Bengals to reach the postseason.
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Minnesota Vikings -17%: A strong performance from Detroit combined with the knee injury of QB Sam Bradford dropped the Vikings’ playoff probabilities dramatically. This can be reversed if Bradford comes back quickly, and if the Vikings beat the Lions in Week 4. However, based on recent performance, it is difficult to imagine Minnesota threatening Green Bay in the division.
Note: Houston’s playoff probability dropped as well, but rookie QB Deshaun Watson's performance is very difficult to predict with current data. If he does well during the next few weeks, the Texans’ probability can rise to around 50 percent to make the playoffs. However, with a “standard” rookie QB, Houston's playoff chances are not very good.
AccuScore's NFL playoff probabilities will be updated on a weekly basis.