Another week of major upsets has shaken up the standings in many pick’em pools. Last week, over half of the games were won by underdogs, including the two biggest surprises, wins from Las Vegas and Tampa Bay. This week, both teams have shifted from underdogs to favorites, giving pool participants something to consider as they plan their picks for the week ahead.
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Week 3 NFL Pick'em: Free picks and special offers
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Week 3 NFL Pick'em: How to identify value picks
Making accurate predictions is just one part of improving your chances in a football pool. It's relatively simple, as point spreads provide a quick, reliable estimate of each team's win probability. However, few can consistently beat Vegas odds over time.
The real edge in pick'em pools comes from applying game theory — gaining points where your opponents don’t. To do this, you need to predict not just the outcomes but also how popular each pick will be amongst your opponents, allowing you to find value where others don’t.
Once you understand each team's win odds and expected pick popularity, two basic tactics should help you start to generate long-term success in football pick'em pools:
- Look for less popular picks that are worth a calculated gamble.
- Avoid following the crowd on trendy upset picks of the week.
The picks listed below offer some of the best ways to differentiate your Week 3 selections from your opponents without taking on too much additional risk. However, in a season-long pool, picking all five would be too risky, so consider them carefully based on your situation.
To learn more about why the size and rules of your pick'em pool should influence your picks, check out our free articles on winning football pool strategy, or use our Football Pick'em Picks product to get customized recommendations for your pool.
Note: Win odds and estimated pick popularity data are accurate as of 6:30 pm ET on Tuesday, September 17th, but this information can change between publication and kickoff. Our product updates all data multiple times per day to provide the latest numbers.
Week 3 NFL Pick'em: Top picks and analysis
Tennessee Titans (vs. Packers)
Point Spread: -3
Pick Popularity: 38%
Category: Value Favorite
The Packers pulled off a win as underdogs last week, aided by a +2 turnover margin and a missed Colts field goal, while also limiting Malik Willis to just 14 pass attempts.
Despite this, the betting market now favors the 0-2 Titans, who have underachieved by allowing the fewest yards this season but rank 23rd in points allowed due to costly turnovers and non-defensive allowed touchdowns.
With public sentiment leaning toward Green Bay, there’s a public vs. oddsmakers split. Historically, market favorites tend to outperform public picks, suggesting value on Tennessee in pick’em pools this week.
MORE: NFL Week 3 survivor picks and advice
Detroit Lions (at Cardinals)
Point Spread: -2.5
Pick Popularity: 61%
Category: Value Favorite
Pairing Detroit with the Titans offers good value, as less than a quarter of typical pools are expected to make both picks. The Lions had a frustrating loss last week despite out-gaining Tampa Bay in total yards, but the public is slightly down on them now.
There’s a clear popularity gap, with every favorite that has higher win odds than Detroit being over 80 percent popular this week. This makes Detroit a smart pick for those looking to differentiate their choices in pick'em pools.
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Carolina Panthers (at Raiders)
Point Spread: +5.5
Pick Popularity: 18%
Category: Value Gamble in Weekly Prize Pools
It’s a new day in Carolina, as the Panthers have already made a QB change, benching Bryce Young for veteran Andy Dalton after being last in scoring through two weeks. Meanwhile, Las Vegas is coming off a significant win as the biggest underdog last week, but now faces a role reversal.
Despite being one of nine teams with over 80 percent pick popularity, the Raiders' win odds dropped after the Dalton announcement. This shift makes Carolina an intriguing contrarian pick in weekly pools, offering potential value against the popular Raiders.
Philadelphia Eagles (at Saints)
Point Spread: +2.5
Pick Popularity: 34%
Category: Value Gamble in Weekly Prize Pools
The New Orleans Saints are on a roll, leading the NFL in both points scored and point differential after two dominant weeks, including a 44-19 dismantling of Dallas last week.
Meanwhile, Philadelphia is coming off a tough Monday Night loss to Atlanta. The public is beginning to back the Saints, but this creates potential upset value for the Eagles, offering a contrarian option in pools.
Minnesota Vikings (vs. Texans)
Point Spread: +2.5
Popularity: 41%
Category: Unpopular Toss-up
The Vikings and Texans are predicted to have a close game this week, with a spread of -2.5. The Vikings are the least popular team among the four matchups with narrow spreads, with just 41 percent pick popularity. This makes them a slight contrarian value in a tight contest.
Get expert NFL Week 3 picks for your pool
Maximizing your edge in football pick’em contests requires extensive data, math, and time. In addition to analyzing win odds and pick popularity to identify the best value picks, it’s crucial to assess how much overall risk to take with your selections.
Some weeks, being selective and strategic with upsets can pay off, while in other weeks, taking multiple risks may not be justified if the potential reward isn’t significant enough or depending on your position in the standings.
That’s why we developed the Football Pick'em Picks product. It’s the only tool that provides customized weekly pick recommendations for NFL and college football pick’em pools, using advanced algorithms that give you the best chance to win. All you need to do is press a button.
Whether you're in game-winner pools, point spread pools, confidence pools, 'Pick Six' pools, or pools with season and/or weekly prizes, this product has you covered. Try it out for free, and good luck with your NFL Week 3 picks!
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