Week 1 served as yet another reminder to NFL survivor pool enthusiasts that (a) there's no such thing as a "sure pick" and (b) following the pack can be a deadly mistake. The Bengals, easily one of the biggest favorites of the opening weekend slate and by far the most popular survivor pick, fell to a Patriots team that won four games last year, fired the greatest coach of all time, and traded away its best pass-rusher.
If you were one of the lucky ones to dodge a massive bullet by avoiding Cincinnati, congratulations — you're still standing. If you picked Cincy but compete in a pool that allows for two or three strikes, take the mulligan and move on older and wiser. No matter the situation you find yourself in, you're here — which means we've got work to do ahead of Week 2.
It should be noted, however, that survivor pools are not just about winning one individual week. They are about optimizing future value to stay alive as long as possible. So, picking the Bengals in Week 1 — especially with Tee Higgins injured and Ja'Marr Chase fresh off a holdout, not to mention Joe Mixon gone for Houston — was far from the optimal play.
Stronger plays like Seattle over Denver, the Chargers over Vegas, and Tampa Bay over Washington existed, three picks that involved slightly above-average squads against below-average competition. Plus, going with any of those three options left a stronger Bengals team in our back pocket for later on down the road when we've used up a bunch of squads and need a solid differentiator.
Analyzing pick popularity and factoring long-term expected value are critical to NFL survivor pool strategy and as such, two of the five key NFL survivor pool tips.
Consider the following facts from our friends at PoolGenius:
- Survivor pools are rarely expected to finish before Week 7, no matter what the size
- If your pool has 50+ entries, you’ll likely need to survive into the final month of the regular season to win it
- Up above 100 entries, you should expect that in the majority of years the pool winner will have to survive the entire season (i.e. go a perfect 18-0).
Let's take a closer look at Week 2's most popular pick and why the season-long strategy suggests going in a different direction.
All season long, The Sporting News is teaming up with PoolGenius to bring you the best weekly advice on all things survivor pools. PoolGenius subscribers have reported over $6 million in NFL survivor pool winnings.
NFL most popular Week 2 survivor picks
It's pretty easy to tell which picks will be the most popular ahead of a new NFL week. Lopsided moneylines and spreads often dictate survivor-pool action — attacking the opponent perceived as the weakest is a tale as old as time.
The Bengals entered last week as 8.5-point favorites against the Patriots, the largest Week 1 opening line. Not surprisingly, that translated to the Bengals ranking as the most popular NFL Week 1 survivor pick. Let's take a look at the eight most heavily favored teams entering Week 2.
| Team | Opponent | Spread | Line |
| Ravens | Raiders | -9.5 | -430 |
| Lions | Buccaneers | -7.0 | -310 |
| Eagles | Falcons | -6.5 | -300 |
| Cowboys | Saints | -6.5 | -295 |
| Chargers | Panthers | -6.5 | -295 |
| Texans | Bears | -6.5 | -270 |
| Chiefs | Bengals | -5.5 | -260 |
| 49ers | Vikings | -5.5 | -260 |
If the goal was to simply pick a winner for this week, we would have plenty of good options from which to choose. However, we're looking at the big picture here — we want a win here and a charted roadmap to wins over the next 10-16 weeks. So, let's dive deeper.
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Chiefs and Ravens both popular Week 2 NFL survivor picks
Not surprisingly, the Chiefs and Ravens open as two of the most popular picks in Week 2. Kansas City has won two straight Super Bowls and just won a thrilling Week 1 tilt with Baltimore. The Ravens, meanwhile, look like the second-strongest team in the AFC after losing to the champs by a mere toe.
Still, it might make sense to look elsewhere and consider a different team this week.
The Chiefs once again top most power rankings, and they arguably got better with the addition of speedy rookie wideout Xavier Worthy. The Ravens also improved mightily after winning the top seed in the conference last year, as the addition of two-time rushing champ Derrick Henry gives them an unprecedented 1-2 rushing punch with Lamar Jackson.
Long story short, both these teams will be heavy favorites a handful of times throughout the regular season. Other teams — ones that might not be as popular amongst mainstream survivor contestants — will probably have fewer future games in which they are strong favorites.
PoolGenius lists the Chiefs with win probability odds of between 72 and 86 percent from Weeks 8 through 13. That stretch — which includes games in Vegas, vs. Tampa Bay, vs. Denver, @ Carolina, and vs. Vegas — provides multiple picks better than Chiefs vs. Bengals this week.
The Ravens, meanwhile, look like a good team to save for Week 6. Baltimore hosts Jayden Daniels and the Commanders that week, a team that just got destroyed by the Buccaneers in Tampa. LJax and company are listed with 79-percent PoolGenius odds this week, but an even greater 83 percent in Week 6 when no other team is higher than 68-70 percent.
Chargers, Steelers, Eagles serve as strong Week 2 survivor picks
The Chargers, Steelers, and Eagles all underwent coaching and/or coordinator changes in the 2024 offseason, and all three teams started the season on winning notes. Los Angeles more than doubled up the Raiders, Pittsburgh stymied Kirk Cousins and the Falcons, and Philadelphia out-dueled the Packers in a Brazil barnburner.
Now all three of these teams face lower-level competition. The Bolts travel to Carolina to face a hapless Bryce Young and the Panthers, the Steelers go to Denver to presumably beat up on Bo Nix and the Broncos, and the Eagles return to Philly to host the aforementioned Falcons in a "true" home game.
All three of these picks seem like good options, as all three open the week favored by 5.5 or more points. The Chargers and Steelers might be better options than Philadelphia, simply because they will be less popular picks now but potentially more volatile later. Philly, on the other hand, likely makes for a very strong pick in a handful of future weeks.
The moral of the story is that survivor, like the same-named TV gameshow, is a marathon and not a sprint. If you strategize on a season-long basis rather than week-to-week, you just might find yourself competing for a jackpot sometime down the line.
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