Only one week to go in NFL regular season. Nine teams have already secured their positions in the postseason and only three wild card spots are up for grabs. In the AFC, there are four teams fighting for two wild cards, while the NFC's final wild card sport will be decided between the Atlanta Falcons and the Seattle Seahawks.
Week 17 NFL Picks: Straight Up | Against Spread
First-round byes are also decided in AFC. New England and Pittsburgh will have a week off following Week 17. The Patriots have over 90% chance to take home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. In the NFC, the wounded Eagles have a first-round bye, but the Minnesota Vikings still need to wait until Sunday to claim the other first-round bye. They can do it with win over Chicago or with a multitude of other scenarios, as only the Carolina Panthers are threatening their second seed in the NFC.
Each week, AccuScore will update its 2017 NFL postseason forecast by simulating the remainder of the NFL season 10,000 times to predict win totals, division winners and probabilities of reaching the playoffs on the road to Super Bowl 52. Below are the probabilities and Vegas odds of making the NFL playoffs and how they have changed.
It's time for one final 2017 installment of AccuScore's Playoff Probabilities:
AccuScore's odds to make NFL playoffs
Probability vs. weekly % change
| Pittsburgh Steelers | IN | 0 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | IN | 0 |
| New England Patriots | IN | 0 |
| Minnesota Vikings | IN | 0 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | IN | 0 |
| LA Rams | IN | 0.02 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | IN | 0.04 |
| New Orleans Saints | IN | 0.08 |
| Carolina Panthers | IN | 0.21 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 0.77 | -0.07 |
| Baltimore Ravens | .80 | 0.03 |
| Tennessee Titans | .52 | -0.11 |
| Buffalo Bills | 0.19 | -0.08 |
| Seattle Seahawks | .23 | 0 |
| LA Chargers | .49 | 0.26 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 0 | -0.22 |
| Oakland Raiders | 0 | -0.03 |
| Miami Dolphins | 0 | -0.02 |
| Detroit Lions | 0 | -0.02 |
| Green Bay Packers | 0 | 0 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 0 | 0 |
| Houston Texans | 0 | 0 |
| NY Jets | 0 | 0 |
| Washington Redskins | 0 | 0 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 0 | 0 |
| Tampa Bay Bucs | 0 | 0 |
| Denver Broncos | 0 | 0 |
| Chicago Bears | 0 | 0 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 0 | 0 |
| NY Giants | 0 | 0 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 0 | 0 |
| Cleveland Browns | 0 | 0 |
Changes to NFL playoff odds
Playoff race in NFC Entering Week 17:
There is only one spot for grabs in NFC. Currently the Atlanta Falcons are sitting on sixth seed and they can keep that spot with a win over the Carolina Panthers. They have almost a 70% win probability according to AccuScore's 10,000 simulations. This game is far from meaningless for the Panthers, as they still have a chance to grab home field advantage for the Wild Card or even possibly snag a first round bye, but that's still a remote possibility.
The Seattle Seahawks are the only team with a chance to replace the Atlanta Falcons and keep the most recent Super Bowl runner-ups from the postseason. They have a home game against a divisional rival, the Arizona Cardinals. Their overall chances to reach playoffs are 23% as in addition to their win, an Atlanta defeat is required.
Playoff race in AFC Entering Week 17:
Currently, the Baltimore Ravens and the Tennessee Titans are going to the playoffs as a AFC wild card teams. The Ravens have 80% probability to keep that position, as they host Cincinnati and a win will ensure a postseason berth. For Tennessee, their postseason probability has dropped with their three consecutive losses and is now down to 52%. They still control their own destiny because the home win over the Jacksonville Jaguars is enough for a postseason berth in Tennessee.
The Chargers have put together an impressive run after an 0-4 start that dropped them down to 1% probability at one point. Right now, their postseason possibility is 49%. They are the favorite to beat Oakland at home, but they also need Jacksonville and Cincinnati to win.
Buffalo has been hanging in the playoff race all season, too. Now, they need to beat Miami and also see the the Chargers and Titans lose in order to maximize their current 19% probability. Entering Week 17, the AFC Wild Card race is still far from decided.
Accuscore’s NFL probabilities will also be updated for the playoffs