Last week in the NFL was super — if you were the sportsbook or the bookie. A number of underdogs were adjusted downward, driven by both public money and wise-guy action. In almost every case, the original NFL odds proved correct, and the books cleaned like a dog stealing a cooked steak out of an open refrigerator door with nobody looking. They were sheepishly satisfied.
Looking ahead to Week 10, our attention for NFL picks is drawn toward a couple of favorites who are not close to meeting preseason prognostications. While either or both could suddenly rise up and play to previously expected levels, that's guessing rather than handicapping.
In addition, we have a prime-time spot in which we are looking for a live underdog to come through.
MORE: Get the latest NFL odds & betting advice at Sportsbook Review
Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns
- Sunday, Nov. 10, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Opening odds: Browns -2.5
If Cleveland would have won at Denver, against a backup quarterback making his first start since 2016 when he was in college, there are plenty of 3-5 teams that made a second-half surge to make the playoffs. However, that loss left the Browns at 2-6, and all the same problems we and others have discussed the last month are unchanged.
Buffalo, on the other hand, has the opposite record at 6-2, which is tied for the second best mark in the AFC with Baltimore. The Bills only had 268 yards of offense against Washington, but they maxed out on timely execution and won 24-9.
While we're still not sold on Josh Allen, of the five QBs taken in last year's draft in the first round, only Lamar Jackson is playing better. Allen is playing within the framework of the offense, using his legs when needed. And though is accuracy remains a concern, he has had a knack for connecting when his team needs it most.
Cleveland has the better roster, but Buffalo has better coaching, preparation and discipline. The Bills opened at +2.5, yet now we are seeing +3, which only adds to our value to play against this Browns bunch that is 4-15 ATS after two or more losses the last three seasons.
NFL pick: Bills +3 (-110)
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears
- Sunday, Nov. 10, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Opening odds: Bears -2.5
The Lions have fallen to 3-4-1, and they have nobody to blame but themselves. Detroit has had fourth quarter leads in the final eight minutes against Arizona, Kansas City and Green Bay and came away 0-2-1. Even last week against Oakland, the Lions were at the doorstep. But for reasons unknown, they did not have all their best playmakers on the field when it counted the most on fourth down.
At least there were no expectations for the Lions this season, unlike the Bears. Everything that went right for Chicago last year has gone wrong in 2019. Mitchell Trubisky is playing like the QB who more than one scout thought was a fourth-rounder or worse after his last season at North Carolina.
Second-year coach Matt Nagy has gone from a coach on the rise to having an Adam Gase glow about him with questionable decisions in every game. Even the Bears' vaunted defense is not the same.
Like Cleveland, Chicago lacks any spark. For betting purposes, show patience. Wait for the +2.5 to reach +3 (it's already happening) and bet against the Da Bears, who are 25-43 ATS vs. teams averaging six or more yards per play.
NFL pick: Lions +3 (-110)
Minnesota Vikings at Dallas Cowboys
- Sunday, Nov. 10, 8:20 p.m. ET, Fox
Opening odds: Cowboys -3
Minnesota has to be kicking itself after letting one slip away at Kansas City. Granted, the Vikings were never going to contain all the Chiefs' playmakers, but conceding a season-high 147 yards on the ground against a middling rush attack is not how to beat them.
No-nonsense coach Mike Zimmer is not going to give his defensive front seven a pass on such meager showing, and he will demand a much stronger effort in Dallas.
The Cowboys accomplished what was needed last week and got the win (and cover) vs. the Giants. Though the short week should not be a significant issue, playing at home and coming off a bye week, it is still worth consideration when breaking down Dallas.
On the topic of handicapping, the Cowboys are 20-34 ATS under coach Jason Garrett at Jerry World and 8-17 ATS at home coming off a division game. Conversely, Zimmer's gang is 17-5 ATS off a road loss. When we dig deeper, we discover the Norsemen are 10-2 ATS after a loss by six or fewer points. Set sail with the Vikings in Big D.
NFL pick: Vikings +3 (-110)