It's the most wonderful time of the year for football fans — opening week of the NFL season! The Sporting News has all the best bets for Week 1, including the top spread, moneyline, over/under and player prop picks.
The 2024 campaign kicks off Thursday at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, where Patrick Mahomes and the reigning champions will begin their quest for the first-ever three-peat as they face a stiff challenge right off the bat with Baltimore.
MORE WEEK 1 BETTING:
Vinnie Iyer against the spread | Bill Bender on the moneyline
The opening weekend of NFL action features a litany of lucrative opportunities for bettors. Let's reveal the best moneyline, spread, over/under, and player prop bets for Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season.
JUMP TO: Spreads | Moneylines | Over/under | Player props
NFL Week 1 Best Bets: Against the spread (ATS)
All odds courtesy of BetMGM and Caesars Sportsbook.
Dolphins -3 vs. Jaguars (-120 on BetMGM)
Mike McDaniel always seems to have his guys ready for the start of the NFL season. This weekend should be no different, as Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and the high-flying Dolphins will be ready to rock at home against a Jaguars team still licking its wounds from an epic second-half collapse last season.
Miami has won its first two season-openers under McDaniel by a collective score of 56-41. The 'Fins have also gone 13-4 straight up and 11-6 ATS at home the past two seasons. Meanwhile, the Jags have dropped five straight games to teams that ultimately finished the season with winning records. The point differential over those five Ls: -54.
It's not so much that Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars can't put up points — it's more so that Jacksonville's D can't make enough stops. The 2023 Jags ranked in the bottom half of the NFL in total points, yards and rushing TDs allowed, and they finished in the bottom eight in passing yards and TDs surrendered. It won't be much better now that top cornerback Darious Williams returned to the Rams. The Fish fry the Jags.
SCORE PREDICTION: Dolphins 34, Jaguars 27
Other Week 1 spreads worth a look: Bengals -9 vs. Patriots; Bears -4 vs. Titans
NFL Week 1 Best Bets: Moneyline
Browns vs. Cowboys (-135 on Caesars)
Sure, the top story out of the Cowboys' camp was CeeDee Lamb ending his holdout and returning to Arlington after the massive extension he recently signed. But, other than that, what good has come out of this Dallas team this offseason? And why should anyone trust Dak Prescott against a winning team, never mind on the road against an elite defense?
After Tony Pollard departed for Tennessee, Jerry Jones failed to bring in an impact back — opting instead to bring back 29-year-old Ezekiel Elliott. Jones also neglected the wide receiver room, leaving an over-the-hill Brandin Cooks as the Cowboys' de facto WR2. Dallas also lost two starting offense linemen Tyron Smith and Tyler Biadasz, then replaced them with rookies. This could be a regression year for America's Team.
The Browns, meanwhile, have plenty of reason for optimism following a strong finish to the '23 campaign. Deshaun Watson is back under center, Jerry Jeudy adds a weapon out wide opposite Amari Cooper, and Cleveland's defense remains one of the toughest to move the ball against. Myles Garrett and the Browns allowed 274.9 yards per game and 215.9 yards per home game last season, both easily tops in the NFL.
Of course, the devil's advocate says that Dallas has enough firepower with Dak and CeeDee alone to move the ball. And the Cowboys' D is also elite, albeit a little less explosive with 2023 interception and defensive TD leader DaRon Bland injured. Consider taking the Browns to win straight up but avoiding them on the spread.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Browns 26, Cowboys 24
Other Week 1 moneylines to consider: Chiefs -145 (1H) vs. Ravens; Falcons -150 vs. Steelers
NFL Week 1 Best Bets: Over/under totals
Jets at 49ers: OVER 42.5 (-110 on BetMGM)
Sportsbooks and the betting public seem to have caught on to the fact that Monday Night Football games tend to go UNDER. According to BetMGM, 76 percent of bets and a whopping 85 percent of the handle (total money bet) on the Jets-49ers total have gone the way of the UNDER. So, of course, we are in for a QB shootout between Aaron Rodgers and Brock Purdy.
And really, would that be all that surprising? The 49ers ranked top three in scoring and total yards last season, with Christian McCaffrey and the running game accumulating a league-high 27 rushing TDs and Purdy's embarrassment of pass-catching riches finishing second in passing scores with 33.
Combine that with Brandon Aiyuk not getting traded out of Santa Clara, and Aaron Rodgers returning from his Achilles injury for a high-powered Jets team that features Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson. Yeah, that sounds like more than 42 points to us. Robert Saleh — former Niners coach and current Jets head coach — has had this one circled on his calendar for a while. Go OVER and get ready for some fun.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: 49ers 26, Jets 23
Other strong Week 1 over/under bets: Cardinals at Bills: UNDER 51 (-110); Patriots UNDER 16.5 at Bengals (-140)
NFL Week 1 Best Bets: Top player prop
A.J. Brown (Eagles vs. Packers): Anytime touchdown scorer (+115 on Caesars)
The tush-push could be far less prevalent now that All-Pro center Jason Kelce retired, which likely translates to increased red-zone targets for Brown. With height (6-1), size/strength (227 lbs), and wingspan (6-5), the three-time Pro Bowl wideout has amassed 42 receiving TDs over 77 career regular-season games. And he's only 27, so his prime could still be on the horizon.
Green Bay's defense allowed a TD over 62 percent of the time its opponent reached the red zone last year, and the Pack didn't do much to address its cornerback depth this offseason. With Philly likely getting up for the NFL's historic São Paolo debut, these plus odds seem too good to pass up.
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