In this post, we analyze the five Week 1 survivor pool picks that have emerged as the most popular options and discuss their pros and cons. This analysis is brought to you by PoolGenius, the only site that provides customized picks that give you the best chance to win your NFL survivor pool. (Check out their NFL Survivor Picks product.)
In terms of survivor picks, Week 1 provides some fresh faces as well as familiar favorites for consideration. The defending champion Chiefs kick off the season against the Lions, an early chance to pick Patrick Mahomes in prime time if you want to come out guns blazing in your 2023 survivor pool.
After Thursday night, rookie coaches appear to be influencing survivor pool picks. Three of the five most popular Week 1 picks involve games against new head coaches in Arizona, Houston, and Indianapolis. Will any of those underdogs engineer an upset victory that could wreak havoc in survivor pools?
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Week 1 NFL Survivor Pool Advice: Tips, strategy for picks
The five teams below are the most popular NFL survivor picks of Week 1, according to the biggest survivor pool hosting sites. There's a good chance that you're probably considering at least one of them.
In our pick analysis, we focus on three key data factors: win odds, pick popularity, and future value. The perfect Week 1 survivor pool pick has high win odds (i.e. it's a relatively safe pick), low pick popularity (because when an opponent picks a different team than you do, they can be eliminated while you advance), and low future value (i.e. they are pretty much useless as a potential survivor pick in future weeks). No pick is perfect, and every week you need to balance tradeoffs between these three factors.
Note: Pick Popularity numbers below refer to the estimated percentage of survivor pool entries nationwide that have already picked the team in question. Those numbers can shift over the week, so make sure to check our product for the latest data.
UPDATE 9/6: Since we initially published this breakdown of NFL Week 1 survivor picks last week, some key numbers relevant to survivor pools have changed. Factoring the latest data into your picks is important for maximizing your edge, so here's an update on some of the pick advice in this article.
(As always, see the NFL Survivor Picks product for the latest pick recommendations for your pool. It's free for Week 1.)
Baltimore Ravens vs. Houston Texans
Pick Popularity: 32% (Most popular team)
Point Spread: -10.0
For the second year in a row, Baltimore is the most popular Week 1 pick in NFL survivor pools. Last year, the Ravens beat the Jets in a wild week that saw most of the other popular survivor picks get eliminated. This year, the Ravens face the Texans in the first game for both head coach DeMeco Ryans and rookie QB C.J. Stroud.
Baltimore is the biggest favorite of Week 1 and the safest pick by win odds, but that advantage is offset to some degree by their higher pick popularity. Whether Baltimore makes the most sense as your survivor pick may depend on whether their popularity goes up or down by kickoff.
The Ravens do have solid future value as a survivor pool pick, ranking seventh in our future value rankings as the 2023 season begins. They have potentially attractive matchups in several other weeks, including Week 3 (vs. Colts), Week 8 (at Cardinals), and Week 14 (vs. Rams). But Baltimore is still worth consideration, especially in smaller pools where taking big risks early may not be the most prudent, and their Week 14 matchup may not even matter.
UPDATE 9/6: Baltimore is holding steady with similar win odds and pick popularity numbers, so that analysis hasn't changed.
WEEK 1 FANTASY PPR RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Kickers
Washington Commanders vs. Arizona Cardinals
Pick Popularity: 17%
Point Spread: -7.0
Washington has been climbing in popularity as a Week 1 survivor pool pick, and their pick popularity could climb even higher by kickoff. Lots of survivor pool players see Week 1 as an opportunity to pick against an Arizona team that looks like they could be the worst in the NFL in 2023 without QB Kyler Murray (knee) to start the year.
Using Washington also makes strategic sense, as it has basically no future value as a survivor pick. We only project the Commanders to be favored in one other game all season. The Commanders come with some uncertainties, though, and uncertainty is not your friend in survivor pools.
This will only be Sam Howell’s second NFL start at QB, while Arizona has a new coach as well as an unknown QB situation. Many people are assuming the worst for Arizona, but historically, even bad teams have pulled big upsets in Week 1. Our models are a little lower on Washington than the betting market is, and teams in similar situations (e.g. a new QB with few starts with the team, going against a new head coach or backup QB) have underperformed relative to other big favorites in Week 1.
Whether Washington is still worth it could depend on just how popular they become, as the Commanders would become a worse value play if they get to be too popular of a pick.
UPDATE 9/6: Washington's popularity as a Week 1 survivor pick has risen even higher. Around 23 percent of survivor pool entries nationwide are now picking the Commanders. Their win odds have not changed, so Washington's overall value proposition is getting worse.
WEEK 1 DFS LINEUPS: FanDuel | DraftKings
Minnesota Vikings vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pick Popularity: 13%
Point Spread: -6.0
Minnesota presents an alternative to Washington, with similar win odds but slightly lower pick popularity, which is good.
The Vikings do have the potential to have a bit higher future value than Washington, but despite last year's 13-4 record, Minnesota actually does not project as a super valuable survivor pool pick in 2023. We currently project the Vikings to have win odds over 60 percent in just two more weeks, both late in the season, at home against both Chicago and Green Bay.
So, a decision on Minnesota or Washington may come down to Expected Value, which considers both win odds (risk) and pick popularity (potential reward). With similar win odds, the bigger the gap between Washington and Minnesota in pick popularity, the more Minnesota becomes the more attractive option of the two.
UPDATE 9/6: Minnesota's point spread has held steady, and the Vikings' pick popularity in survivor pools hasn't changed much (12 percent now, down from 13), so there are no big changes to our initial analysis there.
MORE POOLGENIUS: Week 1 Pick 'em pool advice
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Detroit Lions
Pick Popularity: 10%
Point Spread: -7.0
Based on projected pick popularity, Kansas City currently has the highest Expected Value of any Week 1 survivor pool pick, but you also need to consider how valuable a team is in the future. Kansas City is easily the team with the most future value among this week’s top survivor pick options, and there will likely be several other weeks in which it offers better value.
We project the Chiefs to have five other weeks during the 2023 season where they will have higher win odds than they do in this Week 1 matchup against Detroit. So, if you pick Kansas City this week when there are several other teams with roughly similar win odds available, you may be mortgaging your future in an NFL survivor pool (especially a bigger one expected to last all 18 weeks).
UPDATE 9/6: Kansas City has seen its win odds fall after news broke about an injury to star TE Travis Kelce (knee). The Chiefs point spread is down to -4.5. KC's pick popularity in survivor pools is also dropping as a result, going from 10 percent to six percent (and possibly lower by kickoff). Still, they're riskier now, and with so much future value in 2023 survivor pools, there are several better pick options on the board.
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Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts
Pick Popularity: 6%
Point Spread: -4.5
Jacksonville is a riskier pick than the other options on this list, as the Jags travel to Indianapolis for the opener as just 4.5-point favorites. In terms of key data factors, the Jaguars fall in the middle of the spectrum in Week 1, with more future value as a 2023 survivor pick than Minnesota or Washington but less than Baltimore or Kansas City.
But the Jaguars have significantly lower pick popularity than some Week 1 alternatives that aren’t that much safer, like Washington and Minnesota, so Jacksonville has solid Expected Value as a result. They shouldn't be dismissed outright as a potential pick just because of the perceived risk.
UPDATE 9/6: Jacksonville hasn't had any significant changes from a data perspective.
Get our Week 1 survivor pick for your pool!
Understanding the impacts of key data metrics like win odds, pick popularity, and future value is the key to winning more NFL survivor pools over the long term. However, those impacts can also vary significantly based on the characteristics of your pool (e.g. its size and rules).
As a result, it takes a lot of data, math, and time to figure out which Week 1 pick (or combination of picks, if you're playing multiple entries) will give you the biggest edge to win your 2023 survivor pool. That's why PoolGenius built the NFL Survivor Picks product.
It provides customized weekly pick advice using the latest matchup data, betting odds, and pick popularity trends. It calculated Expected Value and future value for every team. It tracks the picks you've already made and recommends how to split up your picks if you're playing multiple entries. It even includes a suite of tools to help you craft the smartest plan for your survivor picks in future weeks.
Try it out using the links below, and good luck in your survivor pool(s) in Week 1!
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