NFL team win total over/under bets have become increasingly popular to place during the offseason. That's the same this year, even ahead of Wednesday's 2024 NFL schedule release.
But there's another way to consider how good or how bad a team will be during the upcoming season and wager on it: Exploring the odds for each to make or miss the playoffs.
Looking at the latest pre-schedule odds from BetMGM, here are five teams to target.
MORE: Strength of schedule for all 32 teams
Best playoffs futures bets
Pittsburgh Steelers make playoffs (+175)
Let's start with their high floor: The Steelers have never had a losing season under coach Mike Tomlin. They were a 10-7 AFC wild-card playoff team last year despite disastrous QB play, and they were 9-8 in Kenny Pickett's rookie season in 2022.
The Steelers have one of the league's toughest schedules in terms of opponents, but they also upgraded their two big weaknesses, landing Russell Wilson to start at QB behind an overhauled offensive line. They are a better, higher-upside team for Tomlin in 2024. Hammering out another double-digit wins is within reach to make the cut right along with the Ravens, Bengals, or both in the AFC North.
Miami Dolphins don't make playoffs (+145)
The Dolphins got a break last season with the Jets losing Aaron Rodgers. That kept Miami second in the division behind Buffalo. The Dolphins have gone 9-8 and then 11-6, respectively, in the first two seasons under Mike McDaniel, but they seem due for a regression tied to conference parity.
Based on opponents, the Dolphins are OK, but the competition is tougher overall in the AFC with Rodgers back for the Jets, Anthony Richardson back for the Colts, Joe Burrow back for the Bengals, and Jim Harbaugh back in the NFL with the Chargers. Should the Jets return to tapping into 2023 expectations, there won't be room for the Dolphins even as a No. 7 seed.
Los Angeles Chargers make playoffs (-115)
The Chargers are favored to come through right away for Harbaugh, but they have similar odds to miss the playoffs. Justin Herbert has plenty of needed offensive changes around him in both personnel and philosophy. The defense will be cleaned up and the running game will be a much bigger factor.
Los Angeles can prey on Las Vegas and Denver for two games each. The Chargers also get key breaks by facing the entire NFC South, as well as the Patriots and Cardinals. The Chargers won't be dethroning the Chiefs in the AFC West, but there's room to still get to 10-7 and displace a team such as the Dolphins or Browns.
Chicago Bears make playoffs (-125)
The Lions will likely roar to another NFC North title. The Packers, however, face a much tougher overall schedule as a second-place team, and the Vikings are transitioning at QB with their own first-round rookie, J.J. McCarthy
With Caleb Williams at QB, the Bears are trying to build on a quietly decent 7-10 Justin Fields-led team in 2023. The offense has gone from limited to loaded. The defense has more pop to start for Matt Eberflus after finishing hot last season. The Vikings and Packers crashed the NFC playoff party unexpectedly the past two seasons. Now it's the Bears' turn with a strength of schedule tied for the league's third-easiest.
Dallas Cowboys don't make playoffs (+185)
This one is a big swing for sure. Big D is expected to return as either NFC East champion or a strong runner-up wild-card team behind the EAgles. But the Cowboys, after a meh to blah offseason, are feeling much shakier than playoff givens Philadelphia, Detroit, and San Francisco.
The Bears, Vikings, and Packers can battle to give the Lions postseason company, while the Rams and Seahawks can make noise behind the 49ers. The Commanders and Cardinals can't be counted out as long shots, either. The NFC South teams have weak-enough schedules to shock with a rare pair in the playoffs.
Dallas' first-place schedule is a big factor in this, with the 49ers, Lions, Buccaneers, Ravens, and Texans all on the schedule. The Cowboys also play the rest of the AFC North. There's a real scenario where 10-7 doesn't add up to the playoffs.