NFL Rookie of the Year odds: Best bets for OROY, DROY based on landing spots

The 2022 NFL Draft was often described as "deep" but without having "elite" talent. The league's Rookie of the Year awards still have to go to someone, though.

Without a clear front-runner, it appears oddsmakers have defaulted to the only first-round quarterback as the most likely winner of the offensive award. As for the defensive winner, No. 2 overall pick Aidan Hutchinson edged out No. 5 pick Kayvon Thibodeaux, with No. 1 pick Travon Walker rounding out a three-headed monster of pass-rushers.

MORE: Desmond Ridder vows to make NFL pay after fall to third round

This year's awards are difficult to predict, and they could end up being based on fit. A lot of very good players won't be starting on Day 1 this year. So the question becomes: Who will thrive the most based on their situation?

Oddsmakers clearly favor Pickett. Ja'Marr Chase won the offensive award last year after Trevor Lawrence was a clear-cut favorite. Will Drake London repeat the feat vs. Pickett? Only time will tell.

The Sporting News lists the favorites for NFL Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year and looks at how players' chances could be helped or hurt based on the teams they're joining. (Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.)

NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year favorites

Field breakdown

Ja'Marr Chase's instant, electric production for the Bengals last year has sparked a renewed interest in wide receivers. Six were drafted in the first round in 2022, and five of them are listed among the top 10 Offensive Rookie of the Year favorites: Drake London, Treylon Burks, Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave and Jameson Williams. Jahan Dotson was 11th at +1400.

And two receivers picked in the second round now have intricately linked career paths. Christian Watson and Skyy Moore are teaming up with two of the best quarterbacks in the league (Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes, respectively) and joining teams that lost their No. 1 targets in the offseason (Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill, respectively). They'll be looking to provide at least a fraction of that offensive production for teams with Super Bowl aspirations.

Besides wide receiver, two running backs and a quarterback are receiving consideration. Breece Hall is seen as a complement to Wilson with the Jets, in the sense that if Wilson doesn't make a fast impact, then Hall will. Walker could see a lot of touches with Seattle's quarterback situation up in the air. Then there's the odds-on favorite, Pickett in Pittsburgh. It's hard to ignore the voters' preference for moderately successful rookie quarterbacks.

Best fits for value

Watson at +800 stands out among these picks. He will immediately become one of the most-targeted players in Green Bay's offense. Moore is going to a locker room with a lot more bodies at wide receiver, but +1100 is a perfectly reasonable place. Burks at +700 also stands out for similar reasons as Watson, with A.J. Brown having been traded to the Eagles. Burks is joining an established offense run by Ryan Tannehill, although the campaign could be derailed if Malik Willis gets significant time at quarterback.

Walker is a decent sleeper at +1000. Volume running backs have won win the award recently, with Alvin Kamara and Saquon Barkley getting in in back-to-back years. The running back position has become devalued around the league, which makes it easier for a rookie to come in and make an impact. Look for Seattle to try to regain some identity around Walker.

Hall and Williams' odds are about right given their situations.

Worst fits for value

Pickett at +500 is a long shot. Mitchell Trubisky may not be a worldbeater, but he has had success in low-pressure situations in the past. The last three quarterbacks voted Offensive Rookie of the Year — Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray and Dak Prescott — were on the bench for one game combined as rookies. If Pickett doesn't win the job from Trubisky in training camp, don't expect him to take the world by storm beginning in Week 6 and get the hardware.

London being second in the odds at +700 is also a head-scratcher. He isn't exactly sharing targets in Atlanta, but who is going to get him the ball? Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder, and Feleipe Franks don't inspire much confidence. Chris Olave at +1000 also feels like a stretch if Michael Thomas, a target magnet, returns healthy for New Orleans. While it may be different with Jameis Winston at quarterback than it was with Drew Brees, Thomas is so good at getting open that it's hard to imagine Olave replicating Chase's production.

Chase was the first wide receiver to be named Offensive Rookie of the Year since Odell Beckham Jr. in 2014. It takes a special season for a receiver to win the award. Before placing any bets on the receivers listed in the top 10, it's important to ask: Are they in a position to thrive?

NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year favorites

Field breakdown

Defensive Rookie of the Year in the current NFL is about getting to the quarterback. The past three DROYs have had pass- rushing as their primary assignment, from Nick Bosa to Chase Young to 2021 winner Micah Parsons. Oddsmakers have taken that to heart, with Aidan Hutchinson, Kayvon Thibodeaux and Travon Walker — who were all very much in play as the top pick heading into this draft — comprising the top three on the board.

MORE: Tannehill's comments about Willis spark mentorship debate

Underneath those front-runners are Devin Lloyd, Jermaine Johnson, Quay Walker, Ahmad Gardner, Kyle Hamilton and Derek Stingley Jr. in the second tier. What do these players have in common? They have to be as effective off the ball as on it. Walker and Lloyd are very good off-ball linebackers, Johnson has to be disciplined as an end will be moving around the defensive line, and Hamilton will be in the box and at slot corner often.

Marshon Lattimore won his Rookie of the Year in 2017 by disappearing receivers and allowing a 45.3 passer rating against when he was targeted. Gardner and Stingley have precedent for corners winning the award, but it's still difficult to attain.

Best fits for value

It's hard to quantify a good fit for a defensive pick, because a lot of times it boils down to production. Hamilton at +100 seems like a good pick due to the do-it-all nature of his game. He's physically gifted, and the Ravens place a high value on that kind of player. Defensive coordinator Don Martindale will move Hamilton around, and if he proves he can do something, he'll be asked to do it again. That will provide great visibility for Hamilton. No safety has won the award since Mark Carrier in 1990.

Nakobe Dean at +1400 also makes a lot of sense. He'll be slotted in as T.J. Edwards should still receive regular reps at middle linebacker, but more and more teams are adopting position-less linebacker sets. If Dean produces early, the Eagles may package him and Edward together often.

Worst fits for value

It's hard to reckon with any cornerbacks being anything better than +1400. It takes generational seasons for rookie CBs to get noticed, so Gardner and Stingley at +1000 will be trendy picks without much basis in reality. Jermaine Johnson at +900 is also a hard sell; the Jets were 29th in the league last year against the run. Obviously the hope is Johnson will help improve that number, but it won't happen overnight.

MORE: NFL power rankings 2022, post-draft edition

Walker at +600 also feels a tad generous. While Hutchinson and Thibodeaux are being viewed as Day 1 contributors, Walker was picked No. 1 overall because the Jaguars felt his physical ceiling was higher. He has a lot of work to put in before he's an elite pass-rusher, so unless he comes roaring into the second half of the season, don't expect much DROY buzz around Jacksonville unless it's pertaining to something incredible that Lloyd is doing. To make matters worse, Walker is joining a team with a very good pass-rusher in Josh Allen. He'll have to show he's the best pass rusher on his own team in before he can become a viable Rookie of the Year candidate.