The idea that freshly drafted franchise quarterbacks are better off spending their rookie seasons on the bench seems logical in theory. But in fact, it’s a myth easily busted.
If the Browns, Jets, Bills or Cardinals are worried about the implications of making Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen and Josh Rosen, respectively, their starters for Week 1 or at any point during the 2018 season, they can relax.
This is an art, not a science.
Sporting News has compiled a list of quarterbacks who were drafted over the last 15 years under their teams' intensions of grooming them into franchise passers. Naturally, the majority are first-rounders, as teams rarely seek 10-year starters in later rounds.
In part because coaches in today’s NFL are under unprecedented pressure to win games as soon as possible, the trend over the last decade and a half has been throwing rookie franchise QBs into the fire immediately — 28 of the 46 quarterbacks on the list fit that description.
But more than half (16 of 28) of those quarterbacks who started as rookies experienced success. Of the 18 quarterbacks who sat as rookies, only seven experienced success. That's a success rate of 57 percent for the starters; 39 percent for the sitters.
START OR SIT: Which is better for rookie franchise quarterback?
For a team to get the desired results from its young quarterback, it needs to understand that player and itself — that’s all. The player's age and experience are insignificant attributes compared to his ability to memorize a playbook, command a huddle, execute at the line of scrimmage and inspire belief from teammates.
An example can be found in the story former Colts quarterbacks coach Bruce Arians has told about working with Peyton Manning during the latter’s rookie season in 1998. Manning started every game that year and threw a career-high 28 interceptions. And even though Indianapolis limped to a 3-13 record, Arians says the team considered it a great season. The Colts had witnessed the qualities that eventually would turn Manning into a Hall of Famer.
As for this season, if the Browns think Mayfield can handle the duties of a starting QB as a rookie despite having acquired Tyrod Taylor as a veteran stopgap, they can think of the time the Seahawks decided to start a rookie in Russell Wilson over a recently signed veteran in Matt Flynn.
"He is so prepared, he does not seem like a first-year quarterback,” Seattle coach Pete Carroll said of Wilson at the time. "(His height) is not even a factor. What is a factor is that he is so elusive and shows great sense. I've watched our team respond to him and they've taken to his leadership style."
If the Jets, Bills and Cardinals are tempted by similar progression in their quarterbacks, they can find other comparable situations in our list. And in some cases, a rookie's rise to the starting role comes unexpected. Looking at you, Ravens.
The bottom line: Each of this year’s rookie franchise quarterbacks should be given a chance to start as soon as possible. Because, assuming such a player is ready to handle the requirements, recent history provides no proof that he should not be given that opportunity.