Coinciding with the 2023-24 NFL schedule release, it's a perfect time to check in on each franchise's projected regular season win total. Although we're still 119 days away from the season opener between the defending champion Chiefs and NFC North favorite Lions, it's never too early to lock in some NFL over/unders.
While BetMGM's had their regular season win totals posted for several weeks, the release of the 2023-24 schedule puts football back on the minds of fans and bettors, which will likely result in increased action on teams' win totals over the next couple of weeks.
With new storylines and narratives emerging, there are plenty of intriguing opportunities in the futures market. Whether it's banking on a dominant regular season from the perennial championship contenders or buying low on a team you feel the market should be higher on, betting regular season win totals present a captivating challenge for those looking to test their forecasting skills.
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Below, we'll take a look at each team's projected regular season win total odds via BetMGM and offer our favorite over/under bets to consider adding to your futures portfolio.
NFL regular season win totals 2023
| Team | Over | Under |
| Arizona Cardinals | Over 5.5 (+125) | Under 5.5 (-150) |
| Atlanta Falcons | Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110) |
| Baltimore Ravens | Over 9.5 (-125) | Under 9.5 (+105) |
| Buffalo Bills | Over 10.5 (-130) | Under 10.5 (+110) |
| Carolina Panthers | Over 7.5 (-125) | Under 7.5 (+105) |
| Chicago Bears | Over 7.5 (-120) | Under 7.5 (+100) |
| Cincinnati Bengals | Over 11.5 (+100) | Under 11.5 (-120) |
| Cleveland Browns | Over 9.5 (+110) | Under 9.5 (-130) |
| Dallas Cowboys | Over 9.5 (-130) | Under 9.5 (+110) |
| Denver Broncos | Over 8.5 (+105) | Under 8.5 (-125) |
| Detroit Lions | Over 9.5 (-125) | Under 9.5 (+105) |
| Green Bay Packers | Over 7.5 (+100) | Under 7.5 (-120) |
| Houston Texans | Over 5.5 (-130) | Under 5.5 (+110) |
| Indianapolis Colts | Over 6.5 (-120) | Under 6.5 (+100) |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | Over 10.5 (+120) | Under 10.5 (-145) |
| Kansas City Chiefs | Over 11.5 (-125) | Under 11.5 (+105) |
| Las Vegas Raiders | Over 7.5 (+125) | Under 7.5 (-150) |
| Los Angeles Chargers | Over 9.5 (-110) | Under 9.5 (-110) |
| Los Angeles Rams | Over 7.5 (+135) | Under 7.5 (-165) |
| Miami Dolphins | Over 9.5 (+105) | Under 9.5 (-125) |
| Minnesota Vikings | Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110) |
| New England Patriots | Over 7.5 (-125) | Under 7.5 (+105) |
| New Orleans Saints | Over 9.5 (+100) | Under 9.5 (-120) |
| New York Giants | Over 8.5 (+120) | Under 8.5 (-145) |
| New York Jets | Over 9.5 (-130) | Under 9.5 (+110) |
| Philadelphia Eagles | Over 10.5 (-150) | Under 10.5 (+125) |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110) |
| San Francisco 49ers | Over 11.5 (+115) | Under 11.5 (-140) |
| Seattle Seahawks | Over 8.5 (-120) | Under 8.5 (+100) |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Over 6.5 (+100) | Under 6.5 (-120) |
| Tennessee Titans | Over 7.5 (-105) | Under 7.5 (-115) |
| Washington Commanders | Over 7.5 (+125) | Under 7.5 (-150) |
Best regular season over-under win total bets
Tennessee Titans OVER 7.5 (-105)
Betting on the Titans is never a flashy move, and although Mike Vrabel's bunch is coming off an underwhelming 7-10 campaign, we think there's reason to expect at least eight wins in 2023. Much of it has to do with Tennessee's manageable schedule, which ranks as the seventh-easiest slate relative to their opponents' projected win totals.
Outside of the Jaguars, who have a win total of 10.5, the Titans' other two divisional foes, the Colts and Texans, see their win totals set at 6.5 and 5.5, respectively. As a result, Tennessee will likely be favored in each of their four matchups against Indianapolis and Houston while also playing against a relatively weak NFC South for their cross-conference contests.
Remember, Tennessee started last season 7-3, but a brutal seven-game losing streak, capped off by a 20-16 loss to Jacksonville in the de facto AFC South championship game, ended their three-year playoff streak. We're not saying Tennessee's going to return to the postseason, but Vrabel's bunch is competent enough to give the OVER bettors a fighting chance to get eight-plus wins.
Pittsburgh Steelers OVER 8.5 (-110)
Everyone knows Mike Tomlin's yet to have a losing season during his 16-year tenure with the Steelers, and although the Steelers are projected as the third-best team in the AFC North behind the Bengals and Ravens, we're not betting on Tomlin's streak to end quite yet.
Pittsburgh's pegged with the 11th-easiest schedule relative to their opponent's win totals, and an offense that ended last season 14th in EPA/play could end up as a top-10 unit in Kenny Pickett's second season under center.
There are hardly ever any shoo-in wins in the NFL, but the Steelers will face the rebuilding Packers and Cardinals at home and head out for winnable road games against the Texans, Colts, and Raiders. If Pittsburgh can take care of business against those five teams that are all projected to finish below .500, it's in a prime position to get to nine wins.
Pittsburgh went a respectable 3-3 in AFC North games a season ago, and if it's able to finish 3-3 in divisional games this year, there's reason to believe the Steelers can find a way to win at least one of their six remaining games.
Washington Commanders UNDER 7.5 (-150)
We're not sure Sam Howell, the presumptive starting quarterback, can lead the Commanders to eight-plus wins in what's suddenly a competitive NFC East.
Once the odds on all 272 NFL regular season games get released, there's a low probability the Commanders are pegged as favorites in eight-plus games. Of course, they may still win at least eight games, but the odds are stacked against them. The -150 price tag on their UNDER 7.5 wins points to a 60-percent implied probability that Washington fails to exceed eight victories, but we think it's closer to the 65-70 percent mark, giving us a slight edge here.
Washington's defense ended last season fifth in EPA/play (-0.059), but its offense was one of the more inefficient units, sitting 25th in EPA/play (-0.066). With the Eagles, Cowboys, and Giants all looking like much stronger teams, we think the projected NFC East bottom-feeder end their season with fewer than eight wins.
Minnesota Vikings OVER 8.5 (-110)
With Minnesota winning an NFL-record 11 one-score games a season ago, it makes sense the betting market is expecting regression ahead of '23-24. However, an 8.5-win total for a playoff-caliber bunch in a parity-filled NFC North feels like an over-adjustment.
While Adam Thielen left for Carolina and Dalvin Cook's days as a Viking appear limited, Minnesota's offense still has a real shot to finish top 10 in success rate for a second consecutive season.
The Vikings' defense will likely finish better than 23rd in drop-back EPA with new defensive coordinator Brian Flores coming to town, which should be sufficient enough for the purple and gold to end the regular season with nine-plus wins.
