Entering 2019, the NFC South has a strong argument as the best division in the NFL. A deep playoff run for the Saints, Falcons or Panthers should surprise nobody, and the Buccaneers, even in a coaching transition, have enough talent to make some noise of their own.
This also makes the NFC South the NFL's biggest pain to predict. Defending-champion New Orleans is the favorite to win what would be its third consecutive title, but Carolina and Atlanta are a sniff of Saints blood away from chomping at the bit.
Three things factored into the Falcons and Panthers both falling to 7-9 last year and allowing the Saints to run away with the division: injuries, injuries and injuries. Will presumed health in Atlanta and Carolina bring the records closer together, or is New Orleans that much more talented than its challengers?
2019 NFL PREDICTIONS:
Standings, playoff projections, Super Bowl pick
Based on SN's picks for the entire 2019 NFL season, here are our predictions for the NFC South.
NFL predictions 2019: NFC South
Atlanta Falcons
Personnel is not a problem in Atlanta; the paper trail is proof. Defensive studs Grady Jarrett and Deion Jones are locked in with new contracts, and the the unit that allowed 26.4 points per game last season and ranked 25th in the NFL is a virtual guarantee to improve with sustained health. Offensively, the Julio Jones contract is the only personnel-related question surrounding a top-10 unit from a season ago.
The wild cards for the Falcons, then, are their coordinator changes. Coach Dan Quinn, who will call the plays on defense, brought in Dirk Koetter as OC and Mike Mularkey to coach tight ends. These guys are respected veterans in coaching, and based on early signs, there is little reason to believe the coordinator shuffle will fail.
Carolina Panthers
Let's try that again. These words feel like the theme for Carolina in 2019. The Norv Turner era was off to a great start last year before the Panthers' season went the way of Cam Newton's shoulder — a slow decline and, eventually, failure. Such is life for a team so dependent on the play of its QB.
Coach Ron Rivera is taking over as the defensive play-caller as the team transitions to a base 3-4, worthy changes for a unit that needs to produce more of a pass-rush and create more turnovers to compliment that potentially powerful offense. Of course, always for the Panthers, any defensive concerns are alleviated by Luke Kuechly.
New Orleans Saints
For the second consecutive year, the Saints entered a season in reload mode after suffering a heartbreaking, frustrating defeat in the playoffs. They were aggressive enough in free agency to find answers amid the departures of the likes of Mark Ingram, Ben Watson, Alex Okafor and Ben Watson.
The late-season struggles Drew Brees experienced last season are concerning at his age, but the Saints' still-strong personnel, supplemented by continuity in the coaching staff, gives New Orleans the highest floor in this division.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
With a new-look depth chart and a fresh approach from an overhauled coaching staff, one of two things will happen for the Bucs in 2019. Either new coach Bruce Arians' methods will push QB Jameis Winston to new heights, and the 25-year-old passer will earn a long-term contract in Tampa Bay as a result, or the mistake-prone nature of Winston's play will be amplified, ending his tenure with the team that drafted him first overall five years ago.
While Winston's prove-it season is the biggest storyline in Tampa Bay for 2019, it's only one of many for a team introducing a handful of new players and some scheme changes. Arians hired Todd Bowles to be his defensive coordinator, and the former Jets head coach brings with him a new base 3-4 defense. Byron Leftwich is also on hand as the offensive play-caller to help Arians coach an offense known to push the ball downfield and feature multiple looks. One thing is certain: For better or worse, the Buccaneers are a team worth watching in 2019.
2019 NFL PREDICTIONS:
AFC East | AFC West | AFC North | AFC South
NFC East | NFC West | NFC North | NFC South
NFC South: 2019 picks
- New Orleans Saints (13-3)
- Carolina Panthers (8-8)
- Atlanta Falcons (8-8)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-13)
The toll injuries took on this division last season is Exhibit A in the Museum of Why NFL Picks Are Pointless. So let's operate on the clean slate that is four healthy rosters. If that's the case, New Orleans is still the best team in NFC South by a good bit.
With that roster edge, the Saints are best equipped to manage a schedule that features legit challenges from the AFC South and NFC West. New Orleans will be tested on the road in Chicago, Seattle and LA (Rams), but the Colts, 49ers, Texans and Cowboys have to travel to the Superdome. With that, the Saints are set up for their three-peat.