Of the NFL divisions that featured two-team races at the top last season, the AFC West featured the closest competition. Don't expect that to change in 2019.
The Chiefs and Chargers finished with the same record (12-4) last season. Both ended up falling short of the Super Bowl after falling to the Patriots in the playoffs.
The Raiders, in their second year under Jon Gruden, are looking to start fresh after the coach's hands-on, massive overhaul assisted by Mike Maycck. The Broncos are undergoing even more transition, with Vic Fangio and Joe Flacco as their new veteran coach-quarterback combination.
2019 NFL PREDICTIONS:
Standings, playoff projections, Super Bowl pick
Based on SN's picks for the entire 2019 season, here are our predictions for the AFC West.
NFL predictions 2019: AFC West
Denver Broncos
Fangio is going with Flacco over second-round pick Drew Lock as the starting QB, which means the Broncos will stick with an old school defensive- and running-minded approach to win games in 2019.
Denver's talented defense will get a big boost from Fangio, fresh off his elite work with Chicago's 3-4 scheme. The question remains how many lumps the Broncos will take with a shaky bridge quarterback who, unlike John Elway thinks, is past his prime.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs have already recovered well from the loss of Kareem Hunt late last season, and with the exception of one position, their offense around MVP Patrick Mahomes remains intact. Coach Andy Reid also didn't shy away from making a necessary defensive change, turning to Steve Spagnuolo to install a base 4-3 with newly acquired end Frank Clark as its anchor.
Kansas City will remain highly explosive on one side of the ball and much less volatile on the other.
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers have a tenuous holdout situation with Melvin Gordon, but as one saw last season, they're loaded beyond running back with excellent playmakers around Philip Rivers, a group that now includes healthy tight end Hunter Henry.
Defensively, from Joey Bosa to Derwin James (when and if the safety returns healthy), they can still clean up on every level. The Chargers will carry their mentally tough identity under Anthony Lynn through another playoff push.
Oakland Raiders
The Raiders get a do-over for Gruden with six new offensive starters wide receiver Antonio Brown and running back Josh Jacobs. Oakland also has at least six new defensive starters including first-round draft picks Clelin Ferrell and Johnathan Abram. Now the trick is bringing all those pieces together on and off the field.
Oakland is set up for improvement, but the amount of improvement is tied to the play of quarterback Derek Carr with his upgraded supporting cast.
2019 NFL PREDICTIONS:
AFC East | AFC West | AFC North | AFC South
NFC East | NFC West | NFC North | NFC South
AFC West: 2019 picks
- Kansas City Chiefs (14-2)
- Los Angeles Chargers (11-5)
- Oakland Raiders (5-11)
- Denver Broncos (5-11)
The Chiefs will rule the division for a fourth consecutive season and make the playoffs in strong fashion for the sixth time in seven years with Reid. Mahomes will not drop off much, and the defense will benefit from more calculated aggression. The Chiefs also can navigate their first-place schedule. The Chargers have a few more obstacles, which will create separation between the contenders.
The Raiders will be better because of their offense, but they will still be limited initially by their defense. The Broncos need to accept that they're in more of a rebuild mode than Elway would like to admit.
