The NFL and the players association are working to reach a deal on a new collective bargaining agreement before the 2020 league year begins in mid-March. One of the main products of the CBA reportedly will be an expansion of the playoff field from 12 to 14 teams (seven teams in each conference), beginning this year.
ESPN's Adam Schefter reported Wednesday that there has been little opposition to adding playoff teams (the 17-game regular-season schedule, on the other hand, remains contentious). Get ready, then, for tripleheaders on both days of wild-card weekend as all but the top seeds in each conference play in the first round.
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One important item was missing from Schefter's initial report, however: whether division champions that don't receive a bye would still automatically host a game in the first round. This is pertinent because of last season's playoffs, when the Eagles were at home in the NFC wild-card round despite having the worst record in the field.
While hindsight can't change any results, it can be used to launch a fun exercise: What might have happened had A.) The playoff expansion taken effect during the 2019 season and B.) The first-round NFC matchups been based strictly on record, similar to how the NBA sets its playoff fields. (The AFC playoff field would not have been altered aside from the Steelers being the seventh seed and playing at the No. 2 Chiefs.)
Actual 2019 NFC playoff seedings
1. 49ers (13-3)
2. Packers (13-3)
3. Saints (13-3)
4. Eagles (9-7)
5. Seahawks (11-5)
6. Vikings (10-6)
Expanded, adjusted NFC playoff seedings
1. 49ers (13-3, first-round bye)
2. Packers (13-3)
3. Saints (13-3)
4. Seahawks (11-5)
5. Vikings (10-6)
6. Eagles (9-7)
7. Rams (9-7)
The middle of the bracket is where we'll focus. In this hypothetical NFC field, the Saints would have hosted the Eagles (assuming Philly is the 6-seed by virtue of winning the East) and the Seahawks would have hosted the Vikings. Seattle defeated Minnesota 37-30 at CenturyLink Field on Monday night in Week 13; a playoff rematch in the same stadium would have been much fairer to Seattle than a cross-country trip to the East Coast, even though the Seahawks defeated the Eagles, who lost QB Carson Wentz early to a head injury.
And although New Orleans would have faced an Eagles team that had won its last four regular-season games to capture the division, it would have been playing at home against a lesser offense. Instead of facing Dalvin Cook, Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen and Kyle Rudolph, it would have been up against Miles Sanders, Greg Ward, Deontay Burnett, Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert. It seems likely that the Saints would have been better able to hold any lead it may have built against the Eagles' group.
Assuming, then, that the higher seeds all held serve on the first weekend (including the Packers at Lambeau Field vs. LA), the divisional round would have been Seahawks at 49ers and Saints at Packers rather than the actual pairings (49ers-Vikings, Packers-Seahawks).
Seattle-San Francisco III would have been a fascinating matchup, for obvious reasons. The West rivals split their regular-season meetings, with the road team winning each time. Seattle won a Week 10 overtime thriller and San Francisco won the division in Week 17 thanks to a goal-line stand in the closing seconds.
As for the other hypothetical new divisional matchup: Drew Brees-Aaron Rodgers? Yes, please. Russell Wilson-Rodgers was plenty good, but Green Bay's defense would have had to game-plan for Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas (and, yes, Taysom Hill) instead of Marshawn Lynch and Tyler Lockett (and, yes, Wilson's running).
It's possible, of course, that the home teams would have again triumphed to give us the same 49ers-Packers title game matchup we got in the real world, but it's clear that both teams would have had a tougher time getting there had the playoff setup been similar to what we might see in 2020.
