The divisional round of the NFL playoffs was a real bracket-busting weekend, and AccuScore's picks felt that pain. However, the team that our simulations predicted before the season to win the Super Bowl, the New England Patriots, is the lone survivor from last week’s predictions.
Our other predicted Super Bowl team, the New Orleans Saints, was bounced by the Minnesota Vikings' miraculous last-second play that may go down as the greatest divisional playoff finish ever. It's the first walk-off touchdown in the history of the NFL playoffs, after all.
MORE: Ranking the best Super Bowl-winning teams of all-time
So far, the playoffs have been quite unpredictable. Half of the games have been won by the underdog. How will the conference championship games play out this weekend? AccuScore has simulated each game 10,000 times to predict the probabilities of reaching Super Bowl 52. Below are the probabilities to win each game Sunday.
AFC championship forecast
Jaguars vs. Patriots
At the beginning of the season, very few brave souls would have had the Jaguars one game away from the Super Bowl. Of course, there's a major roadblock in facing the Patriots in Foxborough. Based on simulations, New England is the clear favorite with a 79-percent probability to win this game and return to the Super Bowl. When looking at the postseason history of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, the Patriots have been very difficult to beat at home. Out of 21 home playoff games under this duo, they have lost only three. The last rare defeat came in 2012 against the Baltimore Ravens.
MORE: The Jags-Pats matchup is closer than you think
NFC championship forecast
Vikings vs. Eagles
The Philadelphia Eagles defense stepped up and stopped the Atlanta Falcons’ high-flying offense in the divisional round. This time, they face a premium defense when the Minnesota Vikings come to play the NFC championship game outdoors in Philadelphia. The visitors are again favorites against the Eagles because QB Nick Foles has not exactly inspired confidence in bettors. The win probability for the Minnesota Vikings is 59 percent based on AccuScore simulations, and this is very much aligned with Las Vegas betting odds (Vikings -3.5).
MORE: Breaking down the Vikings-Eagles matchup
Super Bowl favorite
Currently, the Patriots have the highest Super Bowl win probability at 46.6 percent. This is not presenting too much value for bettors, but the longest shot — the Jaguars with only an 11.6-percent probability to win the Super Bowl — is a value bet for those looking to cash out big. Currently, you would be getting your money back 10 times if the Jaguars win it all.
That said, the Patriots are predicted to beat either the Vikings or the Eagles in Super Bowl 52. There is no big difference between Philadelphia or Minnesota as New England's opponent; both have around a 40-percent chance to win against New England, meaning Brady and the Pats would walk into the Super Bowl as clear favorites.
One of the most interesting results in simulations is that if Jacksonville pulls the upset in Foxborough on Sunday and makes its first Super Bowl trip, the Jaguars are also predicted to be favorites against either NFC team. However, the possible matchup between the Jaguars and the Vikings is very close with Jacksonville having a 51-percent chance to win.