A funny thing has happened in this pass-oriented, quarterback-driven NFL — the emergence of the running game as a factor for so many of this year's playoff teams.
Check the stats. Six of the NFL's top 10 rushing teams made the playoffs, led in the NFC by No. 2 Dallas and No. 5 Atlanta. In the AFC, the top-seeded Patriots rank No. 7, and three other playoff teams rank in the top 10 (No. 6 Oakland, No. 8 Houston and No. 9 Miami).
Teams such as Pittsburgh, Green Bay, Seattle and Kansas City will host cold weather playoff games in which the running game likely will take on a larger role, which is fine with the Steelers and Chiefs, who ranked in the top half of the league in rushing.
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Not that the passing game now is being devalued. It's obvious that elite quarterbacks and top passing attacks — think Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, Joe Flacco, Drew Brees and Russell Wilson — still are the best paths to the Super Bowl.
And when Super Bowl LI is played in perfect conditions at NRG Stadium in Houston, the quarterbacks and passing games likely will be the biggest factors in determining the winner. But it's clear: The teams that can run the ball to help win cold weather games are the ones that have the best chances to reach the Super Bowl.
If the Cowboys can be as effective in the postseason as they were in regular season, with league rushing champ Ezekiel Elliott running behind the NFL's best offensive line, it will take a lot of pressure off rookie quarterback Dak Prescott. Dallas is the only playoff team that ran more than it passed this season. (50.8 percent of its plays were rushes.)
It's interesting that on the AFC side, Patriots ran the ball more than any other team (482 rushes, 46.7 percent of their plays). With New England hosting a Saturday night divisional playoff game, a heavy dose of LeGarrette Blount will be expected.
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What's also interesting about the Cowboys and Patriots is they boast two of the top three run defenses in the NFL, with Dallas No. 1 and New England No. 3. Part of that may be teams having to throw to play catch-up against them, but it's clear that stopping the run is a big point of emphasis for both. They want to make opposing offenses one-dimensional if possible, then turn loose their pass rushers and blitzes.
Along with Elliott and Blount, several other 1,000-yard rushers will play key roles for their teams this postseason, including Le'Veon Bell of Pittsburgh and Jay Ajayi of Miami, who will face off in Sunday's AFC wild-card game. Call it advantage Steelers and Bell against the league's No. 30 run defense.
Elsewhere, Lamar Miller will be asked to carry the load for a Texans offense that has major quarterback issues heading into their Saturday matchup against the Raiders and their No. 23-ranked rush defense.
Atlanta's Devonte Freeman, like Bell and Blount, benefits from playing in an offense that is prolific in the passing game. Defenses rarely stack the box to stop the run when they are primarily concerned with a dynamic duo like quarterback Matt Ryan and receiver Julio Jones.
Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers is the hottest quarterback entering postseason, with 15 touchdown passes and no interceptions during the Packers' current six-game winning streak on their run to the NFC North title. But if the weather is cold and windy in Green Bay, it may force coach Mike McCarthy to run it more than he did in regular season (37.6 percent of the snaps were runs, second fewest of the 12 playoff teams behind only Detroit). But the Giants’ defense is fourth against the run and 23rd against the pass, so Rodgers might just turn it loose, anyway.
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A strong running game sets up the play-action passing game, which is a key ingredient in virtually all offensive game plans. Running the ball effectively also helps control the clock and keep the opposing offense off the field.
That will be big for the Cowboys considering that, in order to win Super Bowl LI, Dallas might have to beat three of the league's most prolific offensive teams and quarterbacks in succession: the Packers with Rodgers, the Falcons with Ryan and the Patriots with Brady.
In my Super Bowl trips with the Vikings in 1976 and with the Titans in 1999, we were fortunate to have that winning combination of an elite quarterback and a Pro Bowl running back — Fran Tarkenton and Chuck Foreman in Minnesota, and then Steve McNair and Eddie George in Tennessee.
George had a great day in a home playoff win over Buffalo (106 rushing yards against one of the top defenses in the NFL), and then he ran for 162 yards in a road win over the Colts. The running game was critical in keeping Peyton Manning and his excellent offense off the field to a good extent.
Same thing the following week, as our team rushed for 177 yards in the AFC title game win at Jacksonville and won the time of possession battle over a Jaguars team that had beaten Miami 62-7 in the divisional playoffs the week before.
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We lost those Super Bowls to very talented teams — the Vikings to the Raiders and the Titans to the Rams — but we needed our strong running game to get us that far.
Whoever makes it to this year's Super Bowl likely will have a similar story to tell.
Jeff Diamond is the former president of the Titans and the former vice president/general manager of the Vikings. He was selected NFL Executive of the Year in 1998. Diamond is currently a business and sports consultant who also does broadcast and online media work. He is the former chairman and CEO of The Ingram Group. Follow Jeff on Twitter: @jeffdiamondNFL.
