It all comes down to this. The NFL's 14 participants in the 2023 playoffs will be determined in Week 18, and while 11 spots have already been clinched, the final three berths will come right down to the wire.
It will begin on Saturday when the Jaguars and Titans play to decide which one will represent the AFC South in the postseason. Then, on Saturday, the AFC's No. 7 seed will be decided in the early afternoon slate while the final playoff berth will be decided by the end of the Packers vs. Lions "Sunday Night Football" game.
There are plenty of other elements in the postseason to be wrapped up as well. Teams can clinch specific seeds, and the all-important No. 1 seed in each conference will be up for grabs. That will guarantee teams not only a bye week to start the postseason, but also home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
There is a bit more uncertainty with the playoff picture than usual after the Bills vs. Bengals Week 17 game was postponed following Damar Hamlin's on-field cardiac arrest. It isn't clear if that game will be rescheduled or ruled a no-contest.
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Even without knowing that, the playoff picture is becoming clearer, and will soon know which teams will be just a few games away from a Super Bowl 57 appearance.
The Sporting News makes game picks every week, so those can help you see whether your favorite team's chances of making the playoffs will increase or decrease in Week 18. The win-and-in games will be of particular importance to NFL fans this week.
Below is a breakdown of the playoff picture in the AFC and NFC as the the 2022 NFL regular season draws to a close.
NFL playoff picture: AFC projections
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No. 1 seed: Kansas City Chiefs
Games remaining: at Raiders
The Chiefs narrowly avoided a major upset against the Broncos for the second time in as many games against their divisional counterpart. They have won nine of their last 10 games and can extend their winning streak to five with a win on the road in Las Vegas to close the season.
Kansas City currently owns the inside track to the No. 1 seed after the Bills and Bengals failed to complete their "Monday Night Football" following after Damar Hamlin's on-field cardiac arrest. It isn't yet clear whether the NFL will make up that contest, but if they don't, the Chiefs can clinch the No. 1 seed solely by beating the Raiders.
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No. 2 seed: Buffalo Bills
Games remaining: vs. Patriots, at Bengals (TBD)
The Bills dropped out of the No. 1 seed for the first time in a while after their game against the Bengals was suspended and later postponed. The NFL hasn't yet announced whether they will attempt to make it up with such little time remaining in the season and before the postseason.
If they do not finish that game, the Bills will likely end up earning the No. 2 or No. 3 seed in the AFC. As such, they could choose to rest their starters in Week 18 against a potential first-round opponent, the Patriots. Things are still in flux for Buffalo but time will tell what its exact seeding scenarios will be in Week 18.
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No. 3 seed: Cincinnati Bengals
Games remaining: vs. Ravens, vs. Bills (TBD)
The Bengals are in a similar boat to the Bills. Not finishing their "Monday Night Football" game would eliminate them from the race for the No. 1 seed but would also guarantee them the AFC North title over the Ravens. As such, their Week 18 game would have less meaning and they could rest their starters ahead of Super Wild Card Weekend.
The NFL should soon have a determination about the status of the Bengals vs. Bills game and that will inform the Bengals' decision about what to do with their starters.
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No. 4 seed: Jacksonville Jaguars
Games remaining: vs. Titans
The Jaguars have a simple scenario to clinch a playoff spot in Week 18. Win over the Titans, and they are in as the AFC South champions. They aren't out with a loss, but they would need a lot of help to sneak in as the No. 7 seed with a losing record.
Jacksonville will need to focus on Derrick Henry to earn a season sweep against the Titans and deny Mike Vrael what once looked like a shoo-in playoff bid.
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No. 5 seed: Los Angeles Chargers
Games remaining: at Broncos
The Chargers won the battle for Los Angeles in resounding fashion, smashing the Rams 31-10 in the return of Joey Bosa. The Chargers are averaging just 18.7 points per game allowed in the three games where Bosa has played at least 49 percent of the defensive snaps. Those numbers should only get better as they look to clinch the No. 5 seed against a weak Broncos offense in Week 18.
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No. 6 seed: Baltimore Ravens
Games remaining: at Bengals
The Ravens led the Steelers for most of their "Sunday Night Football" matchup in Week 17, but Kenny Pickett orchestrated his second consecutive game-winning drive to give Pittsburgh a 16-13 victory.
Baltimore's offense continues to struggle without Lamar Jackson, but his status is still up-in-the-air as the Ravens prepare to play in the postseason. Their shot at the AFC North title may be gone, depending on what the NFL decides to do with the Bills vs. Bengals game, so they may decide to sit their starters against Cincinnati in Week 18.
Those two teams could meet in the wild-card round, so the Ravens may want to avoid tipping their hand regarding playoff strategy.
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No. 7 seed: New England Patriots
Games remaining: at Bills
The Patriots are one of four teams in the mix for the No. 7 seed, along with the Dolphins, Steelers and Jaguars. If New England can beat the Bills in Buffalo, it will head to the postseason for the second time in as many seasons with Mac Jones at quarterback. Of course, it's their defense that has led them to victory often this season, so that unit will need to hold the Bills in check to win.
Even if the Patriots don't, they can still get into the postseason. It would just take losses by the Dolphins (vs. Jets) and Steelers (vs. Browns) — as well as a Jaguars win (vs. Titans) — to get them there.
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NFL playoff picture: NFC projections
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No. 1 seed: Philadelphia Eagles
Games remaining: vs. Giants
Philadelphia has had numerous chances to clinch the No. 1 seed but hasn't been able to do it the last two weeks with Gardner Minshew starting at quarterback. Jalen Hurts is expected to return in Week 18 and if he can lead the Eagles to a win, they will get the coveted No. 1 seed and a first-round bye in the 2023 NFL playoffs.
If not? Well, that would open the door for Dallas to win the NFC East. That's why Hurts is returning; to slam the door shut on that possibility.
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No. 2 seed: San Francisco 49ers
Games remaining: vs. Cardinals
The 49ers extended their winning streak to nine, and Brock Purdy is now 4-0 to begin his career as a starting quarterback. San Francisco clinched the NFC West long ago and will have a shot at overtaking the Eagles for the No. 1 seed in Week 18. If not, they can remain the No. 2 seed with a win or a Vikings loss.
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No. 3 seed: Minnesota Vikings
Games remaining: at Bears
The Vikings were crushed by the Packers 41-17 in Week 17. It marked the second time this season that the Minnesota defense has given up 40-plus points in a loss, and all four of their losses have come by double digits.
The defeat dropped the Vikings from the No. 2 to the No. 3 seed and took them out of the running for the No. 1 seed. They could rest their starters in Week 18 against Nathan Peterman and the Bears considering that they aren't playing for much.
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No. 4 seed: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Games remaining: at Falcons
The Buccaneers are locked into the No. 4 seed in the NFC after their division-clinching 30-24 win over the Panthers in Week 17, but it doesn't appear that they are going to rest their starters. Or, at least they won't for the whole game.
Why might they do that? Well, their offense hasn't performed well this season, so that's part of the decision. The other part could be that Tampa Bay has a record of 8-8 and Tom Brady has never had a losing season as a starter. He may want to keep that intact in his age-45 season.
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No. 5 seed: Dallas Cowboys
Games remaining: at Commanders
The Cowboys have kept themselves alive for the NFC East title thanks to back-to-back wins against the Eagles and Titans and back-to-back losses by Philadelphia.
Dallas needs to win again and see the Eagles drop another game to move up from the No. 5 seed. The Cowboys should beat the Sam Howell-led Commanders, but with Hurts coming back for Philly, it's hard to see the Giants beating the Eagles in what is a meaningless game for New York.
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No. 6 seed: New York Giants
Games remaining: at Eagles
New York's game against Philadelphia is meaningless for a good reason. The Giants have clinched a playoff berth and are locked into the No. 6 seed after their 38-10 win over the Colts in Week 17. The win will give Brian Daboll a chance to rest his starters this week — if he so desires — and his team can start prepping for a likely matchup with either the Vikings or 49ers on Super Wild Card Weekend.
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No. 7 seed: Seattle Seahawks
Games remaining: vs. Rams
The Seahawks are currently the No. 7 seed in the NFC playoffs, but the Packers are actually more likely to get into the postseason than them. Why is that? It's related to the way playoff tiebreakers work and the fact that the Lions and Packers, who both have 8-8 records like the Seahawks, are playing in Week 18.
The Seahawks would win a head-to-head tiebreaker against the Lions but would lose in a two-team tiebreaker against the Packers. As such, Seattle needs a win and Detroit to win or tie to get into the postseason. That might not be easy to get considering that the game is at Lambeau Field.
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Current NFL playoff picture
Here's a look at how the playoff standings in the AFC and NFC break down entering the final week of the NFL regular season. Included too are the teams that remain in the playoff hunt.
(Note: The NFL hasn't yet clarified what it will do about the Bengals vs. Bills game that was postponed following Damar Hamlin's on-field cardiac arrest. As such, it isn't yet clear whether the Bengals have clinched the AFC North despite their record.)
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AFC
| Seed | Team | W-L | Clinched |
| 1 | Chiefs | 13-3 | AFC West |
| 2 | Bills | 12-3 | AFC East |
| 3 | Bengals | 11-4 | Playoffs |
| 4 | Jaguars | 8-8 | N/A |
| 5 | Chargers | 10-6 | Playoffs |
| 6 | Ravens | 10-6 | Playoffs |
| 7 | Patriots | 8-8 | N/A |
In the hunt: Dolphins (8-8), Steelers (8-8), Titans (7-9)
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NFC
| Seed | Team | W-L | Clinched |
| 1 | Eagles | 13-3 | Playoffs |
| 2 | 49ers | 12-4 | NFC West |
| 3 | Vikings | 12-4 | NFC North |
| 4 | Buccaneers | 8-8 | NFC South |
| 5 | Cowboys | 12-4 | Playoffs |
| 6 | Giants | 9-6-1 | Playoffs |
| 7 | Seahawks | 8-8 | N/a |
In the hunt: Lions (8-8), Packers (8-8)
