Both NFL conference championship games feature point spreads around three points in favor of the home teams. That means Rams vs. Saints in New Orleans and Patriots vs. Chiefs in Kansas City are essentially pick'em games.
Such a lack of clear favorites and underdogs (no matter what Tom Brady might be claiming) makes life tougher on prognosticators like us. Whatever. We can handle it. Because, while nobody can promise 100 percent accuracy on game predictions, we're confident in our belief that both of Sunday's championship games will be dandies.
MORE: Info, odds for Super Bowl 53 in Atlanta
Below are SN's picks and predictions for the NFC and AFC conference championship games.
Picks, odds for NFL conference championship games
Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints
- Date, time: Sun., Jan 20, 3:05 p.m. ET
- Location: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, La.
- TV: FOX
- Odds: Saints -3.5; Total: 57
Vinnie Iyer: Offense has been the calling card for both the Saints and the Rams, but this game will come down to which team can play better defense. Los Angeles faces a much tougher run defense in New Orleans than the one it saw against, while the Saints get a much more favorable matchup for Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram.
The Saints' secondary, which played well against the Eagles, also gets a break, as the Rams this time will be without Cooper Kupp, a key receiving factor in the first game. Meanwhile, the Rams' corners should be having nightmares about Drew Brees’ go-to guy, Michael Thomas, who posted 12 catches for 211 yards against them in Week 9 and just burned the Eagles for 12 catches for 171 yards.
Sean McVay's team will move the ball with Todd Gurley, Robert Woods and former Saint Brandin Cooks, but the coach can't cover up his team's numerous defensive deficiencies away from Aaron Donald. The Saints are solid and deep on every level, even after the big blow of losing tackle Sheldon Rankins in the divisional round.
Los Angeles and New Orleans match each other for the most part on offense and special teams, but give Brees the edge over Goff at QB, and the Saints will play better situational defense. The Superdome crowd also will provide a big boost as the Saints march on to that other Mercedes-Benz venue in Atlanta.
Pick: Saints, 38-30
Tadd Haislop: So much about this game tempts one to predict a Rams victory. First of all, there's the age-old generalization that it's extremely difficult to beat an NFL team twice in one season. And it's not like Los Angeles was blown out in New Orleans the first time around.
Also presumably working in the Rams' favor is their attitude. After that first meeting, when Thomas dominated LA cornerback Marcus Peters and Payton noted as much in his post-game comments, Peters provided something of a warning: "Tell Sean Payton to keep talking that s—. We're going to see him soon. You feel me? Yeah, because I like what he was saying on the sidelines, too. Tell him, 'Keep talking that s—. And I hope to see you soon.' You hear me? And then we'll have a nice little bowl of gumbo together."
Gumbo time has arrived at the perfect time for the Rams. Their forceful rushing attack smothered the Cowboys' interior defensive line and wiped out the Dallas linebackers in the divisional round; now it's pitted against a Saints defense that lost a key piece in Rankins against the Eagles.
But the running game, ironically, is where LA's advantages run out. If New Orleans' offensive line can manage Donald and get to the second level, its running backs can and will run all over the Los Angeles defense. Even after their slow start in the divisional round, the Saints knew Kamara and Ingram could not be stopped. The same should apply in the conference championship game.
A game like this is exactly why the Saints padded their defense in the offseason — see Demario Davis and Marcus Davenport. And if it comes down to the last few possessions, when the QBs typically decide the game, we all know which team has the advantage.
Pick: Saints, 31-24
New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs
- Date, time: Sun., Jan 20, 6:40 p.m. ET
- Location: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Mo.
- TV: CBS
- Odds: Chiefs -3; Total: 57.5
Vinnie Iyer: The Patriots are still the Patriots, but the Chiefs' past playoff missteps under coach Andy Reid will get buried here for two reasons: They are at home, and they have Patrick Mahomes.
Brady will keep up his team's offensive momentum, but New England will lose this one defensively, as the speed, quickness and athleticism of Kansas City's skill players are too much to handle a second time.
The Patriots have been weaker on the road this season, and Mahomes can blow up even their best-laid game plan. Having learned from the first meeting, Mahomes will have a clean, prolific game to out-duel Brady and stamp his MVP status with a trip to what might be the first of several Super Bowls.
Pick: Chiefs 38-33
Tadd Haislop: The Patriots and Chiefs won their divisional playoff games against the Chargers and Colts, respectively, in a similar fashion. Even though New England blew out its opponent on the scoreboard, the domination was rooted in the power running game with Sony Michel. Surprisingly, that's how Kansas City managed its win, too, with Damien Williams.
Presumably, New England will use a similar game plan in the conference title game against a Kansas City defense that has been vulnerable to the run at times in 2018. The Patriots have an advantage on the ground, and keeping pressure away from Brady will be vital.
The tried-and-true formula to beating New England is getting to Brady, but few teams can actually do it. Kansas City pass-rushers Dee Ford and Justin Houston gave Indianapolis offensive tackles fits in the divisional round, and Chris Jones completes one of the league's best pass-rushing trios. So, yeah, the Chiefs can do it.
With that said, the Patriots have the edge in overall defense, if anything because they'll be prepared with a game plan to contain the likes of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. So picking against New England, the team with the edges in defense and in the running game, would go against everything we know about postseason NFL football.
Oh well. Mahomes is just different.
Pick: Chiefs, 35-31